Las Palmas vs Barcelona Prediction: Visitors to exact revenge for November defeat

Barcelona travel to the Canary Islands this weekend in La Liga, targeting three points against struggling Las Palmas at the Estadio de Gran Canaria (20:00, Premier Sports 1).

Read on for our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon's Las Palmas vs Barcelona predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

On paper, this has the feel of a mismatch, but that was also the case back in November when Las Palmas were surprise 2-1 winners in the reverse fixture at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. Diego Martínez’s side were inspired that day, defending resolutely and launching some excellent counter-attacks with Sandro Ramírez and Fábio Silva scoring their goals.

The circumstances heading into this Saturday’s fixture feel altogether different though. Las Palmas were playing with confidence and deep in the midst of Martínez’s honeymoon period when the sides last met, with the ex-Granada boss coming in to transform their fortunes following the sacking of the winless Luis Carrión in October.

Las Palmas won eight of their first 11 matches in all competitions under Martínez, rising from the very bottom of La Liga, to a position of relative comfort by the end of 2024.

However, the turn of the year has brought another reversal in their fortunes, one almost as dramatic as the initial positive developments following the managerial change.

Their record in 2025 stands at six defeats and one draw from seven games in all competitions. The year started with a 4-0 Copa del Rey defeat at second-tier Elche and it hasn’t gotten any better since. While they have scored in each of their six league games, Los Amarillos have looked weak in midfield and defence, with a number of selection issues contributing to a decline that has seen them sink back into the thick of the relegation scrap.

Football Odds

As for Barcelona, that shock defeat in the reverse fixture was viewed as a wake-up call at the time. That didn’t exactly prove to be the case, with Leganés and Atlético Madrid also going on to win in the Catalan capital before the end of last year.

However, unlike their opponents this weekend, the festive break came at an excellent time for Hansi Flick’s side. They’ve come back looking refreshed and more like the team that was so dominant in the opening months of the season.

Their 12 competitive fixtures so far in 2025 have served up 10 wins and two draws. With the Madrid clubs dropping plenty of points in recent weeks, a four-game winning streak in the league has allowed Barça to climb to the very summit of the table once more, having been seven points adrift only three games back.

With a favourable-looking Champions League draw, and a Copa del Rey semi-final against Atleti to look forward to next week, things are suddenly looking a lot brighter for the Catalan giants and they’ll be strongly expected to inflict some revenge on Las Palmas this weekend.

A note of caution may come in the fact that Barça have still blown hot and cold to some extent in terms of their performance levels. Within the space of their last four league games, they’ve hammered Valencia 7-1 and Sevilla 4-1, but have also been made to work really hard in 1-0 home wins over Alavés and Rayo Vallecano.

They needed solitary goals from Robert Lewandowski to win both of those games, with the Polish striker converting from the penalty spot against Rayo on Monday night.

Team News

The hosts have a number of selection issues once more heading into this game. The most significant is perhaps the suspension of regular centre-back Scott McKenna which will lead to changes at the back as Las Palmas prepare to face the Spanish top flight’s top scorers.

They also have a number of fitness problems with Marvin Park, Andy Pelmard, Marc Cardona, Kirian Rodríguez, Adnan Januzaj and Fábio Silva all ruled out. In better news, seven-goal forward Sandro Ramírez should be fit enough to return to the lineup against his former club, while Dário Essugo will also come into the midfield having missed the 3-1 defeat at Mallorca due to suspension.

Meanwhile, Barcelona don’t have any fresh selection problems. Long-term absentees Marc-André ter Stegen and Marc Bernal miss out again, while Andreas Christensen is also unlikely to feature.

Otherwise, Flick has a full squad to pick from. With a cup date against Atleti to come on Tuesday, he may consider light rotation. Jules Koundé should return at right-back after he was rested against Rayo, while Ferran Torres, Marc Casadó and Dani Olmo could also potentially rotate in.

Las Palmas vs Barcelona Odds

Las Palmas are priced at 9/1 to complete a famous double over Barcelona. The visitors are available at 1/4 to win the match, while the Draw is available at 11/2.

If you expect the home team to at least be competitive, you can back Las Palmas +2.00 Handicap at 23/20, while Las Palmas or Draw is on offer at 11/4 in the Double Chance market.

Their current form suggests they may struggle in this match though and you can back Barcelona -2.00 Handicap at 6/4 if you’re expecting the visitors to dominate. Flick’s men are also on offer at 11/8 to win both halves, while you can back Barcelona and Both teams to score at 6/5.

You can back Robert Lewandowski to score first at 11/4, a winning bet in each of Barça’s last three league games. However, there is a chance that Ferran could rotate in for this match, with the former Man City forward priced at 10/11 to score anytime.

Flick is not expected to change his two wingers and you can back Raphinha to score anytime at 21/20 here, while Lamine Yamal is priced at 6/4 in the same market.

From a home perspective, Sandro is the standout option at 13/5 to score anytime, while Oli McBurnie is priced at 3/1 to finally break his La Liga duck at the 21st time of asking.

Barcelona & Over 3.5 goals @ 21/20

While nobody expected Las Palmas to win the last meeting, there is perhaps even less reason to foresee an upset here. Right now, they are perhaps the worst team in La Liga with the exception of a very poor Real Valladolid side, and they’ve been far too easy to play through in midfield of late.

Their defence hasn’t looked any more convincing, and with a number of important players missing, it’s hard to see them being able to frustrate Barça as successfully as they managed back in November.

Even in that game, they had to face 27 shots to secure the victory, and regardless of whether it’s Lewandowski or Ferran who starts up front, I expect the visitors to run out comfortable winners. I’m backing Barcelona and Over 3.5 goals at 21/20.

Bet Builder - Raphinha 2+ shots on target & Lamine Yamal 1+ shots on target @ 7/5

If there’s a potential area of concern for Flick looking ahead to a hectic end to the season as his side targets silverware on three fronts, it’s perhaps the lack of cover for their star wingers Raphinha and Lamine Yamal.

Ansu Fati hasn’t clocked up any league minutes since November and looks completely out of favour, while Ferran’s best position increasingly looks to be as a central striker. As a result, Flick is likely to continue picking Raphinha and Yamal, even in games when there is the potential for rotation such as this one.

Both players have been outstanding this season and they should be licking their lips at the prospect of taking on a struggling Las Palmas defence that has conceded 18 goals in their seven competitive outings in 2025.

Yamal has had at least one shot on target in all 11 of his appearances so far this calendar year, while Raphinha has tested the goalkeeper on five occasions in his last two matches. I see those trends continuing here, and I’m using the Bet Builder to back Raphinha 2+ shots on target and Lamine Yamal 1+ shots on target at 7/5.

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish football writers on our La Liga homepage...