Real Oviedo vs Osasuna Prediction: Going against the stats with a 11/8 Bet

The week in La Liga ends on Monday night with a battle between two sides towards the bottom of the table. Premier Sports 1 is the channel to tune into for this one with kick-off set for 20:00.

Our La Liga Betting expert Mark Sochon is going against the stats with his top pick. Let's check out why in his preview of the game and get into Mark's Real Oviedo vs Osasuna Predictions here on Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com

Match Preview:

Two teams in need of a win clash in the Monday night fixture in La Liga, as Real Oviedo entertain Osasuna. 

The hosts made the surprising decision to sack their promotion-winning coach Veljko Paunović last month. That call is yet to pay off, with his replacement, Luis Carrión, struggling in what is his second spell in charge of the Asturian club. 

Carrión angered Oviedo fans with the manner of his departure to join Las Palmas at the end of the 2023/24 season. While he was widely recognised to have done a good job the first time around, his return was not universally welcomed, and the 46-year-old was jeered by sections of the home support in his first match back against Espanyol. 

That game ended in a 2-0 defeat, with Carrión's attempts to introduce a more adventurous style of play failing to deliver a much-needed win. 

His side performed better last weekend, leading 2-0 at one point in their bottom-of-the-table clash at Girona. However, the Catalans responded well after the break in an entertaining contest that ended 3-3, with David Carmo scoring a 98th-minute equaliser for Oviedo. 

They head into this Monday night fixture just one place off the bottom of La Liga, with only seven points from 10 matches so far. They do so on the back of an embarrassing 4-2 Copa del Rey exit against Ourense, the side with the worst record in the Spanish third tier. 

There were no such problems for Osasuna in the cup. They swept past minnows C.D. Sant Jordi 5-0 away from home on Wednesday, with backup forward Raúl García scoring a hat-trick. 

However, they've had far less success on their travels in La Liga. The Navarrese side have lost all five of their away league fixtures to date, scoring only one goal. Alessio Lisci's team have had a tricky run of road matches, but this game presents a good opportunity for them to pick up their first points away from El Sadar. 

Lisci last visited the Estadio Carlos Tartiere with Mirandés in the Segunda División play-off final earlier this year. He was announced as the new Osasuna boss only a few days after that game, which marked the end of Oviedo's 24-year wait for top-flight football. 

The Italian has opted to line up with a back three since taking charge of his new club, but has yet to really stamp his mark on this side. Some of their issues from previous seasons remain, most notably a dependence on Ante Budimir for goals. The Croatian scored twice in a 3-2 home defeat against Celta Vigo last weekend, and could do with a bit more support in the final third. 

Víctor Muñoz, a €5m signing from Real Madrid, was their only major summer addition, but he's only managed to score once so far for his new club. Meanwhile, attacking midfielder Aimar Oroz has endured an injury-ravaged campaign. 

Team News: 

The hosts will again be without their long-term injury absentee Álvaro Lemos, while Josip Brekalo is also sidelined for this game. Santi Cazorla and Ovie Ejaria are also fitness doubts. 

With few squad players staking a claim in the cup in midweek, Oviedo are likely to go with a similar team to the one that drew against Girona. Alberto Reina may replace Ejaria if the former England U21 international doesn't shake off a hamstring issue. 

Osasuna have suffered an injury blow this week, with Iker Benito set to miss the rest of the season after tearing his ACL. They're also missing Valentin Rosier, so Jon Moncayola may continue as the right-sided wing-back. Oroz is available again and could feature off the bench. 

Match Odds:

This is not an easy match to call, and that's reflected in the odds with Osasuna the very slight favourites at 8/5. You can back Real Oviedo at 2/1, while the Draw is also priced at 2/1. 

If you're expecting goals, Both teams to score is on offer at 1/1. You can back Oviedo to score over 1.5 goals in the game at 9/4, while the hosts are priced at 21/20 to win either half. 

Osasuna are on offer at 10/3 to score in both halves, while they can be backed at 7/4 to score over 1.5 goals. You can back them to keep a clean sheet at 13/8. 

Budimir leads the way in the Goalscorer markets. The experienced Osasuna frontman is on offer at 7/2 to score first and 7/5 to score anytime, as he aims to improve on a four-goal return so far this season in La Liga. 

Salomón Rondón should lead the line for the hosts. After a slow start, the Venezuelan has scored in two of his last four league appearances. Rondón is priced at 11/2 to score first, and 9/4 to score anytime on Monday. 

You can bet on this match via our Real Oviedo vs Osasuna Odds page on the main betfred.com website, with all the latest prices and full betting markets.

Bet 1 - Over 2.5 goals @ 11/8 

While Oviedo have not exactly been scoring freely this term, the expectation was always that a change in the dugout would see them adopt a more attacking style. That has been the case, with their three competitive matches so far under Carrión producing 14 goals in total. 

They've allowed 5.7 xG across their two league games since the change. That suggests that for the first time this season away from home in La Liga, Osasuna should finally have some joy in the final third. 

The Pamplona-based side have also shown a bit more attacking intent over the past fortnight, and I'm backing there to be Over 2.5 goals in this game at relatively long odds of 11/8. 

Bet 2 - Osasuna to score over 0.5 goals & Osasuna to have over 11.5 shots @ 5/6 

Real Oviedo's current position in the bottom three is not a great surprise, and this does have the feel of a squad that isn't going to have enough to survive. By contrast, Osasuna are an established top-flight side, with a bit more quality in their ranks. 

While they've tended to fall short against the bigger clubs, they've only been beaten by one goal on trips to Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid. Lisci will have seen positives in some of those away games, and will want to see his side take more risks in this match. 

Oviedo allowed Espanyol to have 19 shots in their first home match under their new boss, and I'm expecting Osasuna to ask questions of their defence too. Given that, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Osasuna to score over 0.5 goals and Osasuna to have over 11.5 shots at 5/6. 

Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:

• Points Staked: 73
• Points Returned: 71.94
• P/L: -1.06

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...