Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction: Back the home side at 21/10 in the Corners Market

Real Madrid will be looking forward to getting back to winning ways on Sunday after their tame performance at Anfield on Tuesday night in the Champions League. They travel to mid-table Rayo Vallecano for a 15:15 kick-off live on Premier Sports 2.

Our La Liga Betting expert Mark Sochon previews the action on the back of a very nice Friday night of tipping where he liked the low-scoring draw in Elche vs Real Sociedad and 1-1 came through. Let's see his Best Bets as we go through his Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Predictions...

*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com

Match Preview:

There's a derby clash in the Spanish capital this weekend, as Rayo Vallecano play host to Real Madrid in La Liga. The hosts have held their own against their big city neighbours in recent years, and should be competitive again. 

Los Blancos haven't won on any of their last three visits to Vallecas. They were beaten 3-2 by Andoni Iraola's Rayo in 2022. The current boss, Iñigo Pérez, was the home team's assistant coach that day, and he's picked up two draws against Real Madrid since taking charge, with the teams sharing six goals in another thriller last December. 

The usually mild-mannered Pérez has been in the news this week. A heated clash between the young coach and his full-back Iván Balliu was captured by the cameras during Thursday's Conference League clash with Lech Poznań. Pérez later left the stadium without fulfilling his usual media obligations after the game, fuelling speculation of a further incident in the dressing room. 

Rayo came from 2-0 down to win 3-2 on an eventful day in Vallecas, with a politically-charged affair also sparking clashes between ultras groups in the build-up to the match. On the pitch, the Madrid side are enjoying what is only their second ever European campaign, and they are currently on course for safe passage directly into the round-of-16. 

Perhaps just as significantly, their league form has not really suffered as a result of their continental commitments. Despite operating on one of the smaller budgets in the Spanish top flight, Rayo's squad has coped pretty well with the extra workload. They won three in a row without conceding in La Liga in October, but standards did slip in a poor 4-0 defeat at Villarreal last weekend. 

As for Real Madrid, they are picking up the pieces following their latest disappointing performance in a big game. Xabi Alonso would have been hoping that his team had turned a corner when they saw off Barcelona 2-1 in El Clásico the weekend before last, but Tuesday's showing in a 1-0 defeat at Anfield could easily have come during the dark days of last season. 

They were second best in virtually every department against Liverpool. The home midfield did a good job of making sure that Arda Güler had little influence on the game, which severely limited the supply to Kylian Mbappé. Vinícius Júnior also had a miserable night up against Conor Bradley. The Reds would have won by more were it not for the brilliance of Thibaut Courtois in goal for the visitors. 

Real Madrid had won 13 out of 14 this season before their trip to Merseyside. There is little wrong with their domestic form, and they hammered Valencia 4-0 last weekend at the Santiago Bernabéu. With Barcelona wobbling badly, this period in the season offers Los Blancos a chance to take firm control of the title race. 

If that's to happen, they are going to need to enjoy plenty of success on the road. This is their second match in a six-game block of successive away fixtures in all competitions.  

Team News: 

Pérez has tended to prioritise La Liga over the Conference League, and we're likely to see at least seven or eight changes from the Rayo side that played on Thursday night. Key player Jorge de Frutos is among those who should return. 

Their main injury issues are in central defence, with Abdul Mumin out long-term, while this game may also come too soon for Luiz Felipe. Attacking midfielder Isi Palazón has been unwell, but is expected to make at least the bench. 

As for Real Madrid, they'll have to cope without Aurélien Tchouaméni who has picked up an injury, while Dani Carvajal and Antonio Rüdiger are still sidelined. David Alaba and Franco Mastantuono are rated doubtful. 

Trent Alexander-Arnold returned to action in the 81st minute back at his old club on Tuesday night. He stands a reasonable chance of making the starting lineup in this game, with Fede Valverde potentially needed in midfield.

Match Odds:

Real Madrid make the short trip across town as the 4/9 favourites. You can back the Draw at 18/5, while Rayo Vallecano are priced at 6/1 to get the better of their city rivals again. 

You can back Rayo to win or draw at 13/8 in the Double Chance market. They are also available at 8/13 with a +2.00 Handicap, while you can back Both teams to score at 8/11. 

Punters expecting a strong response from Real Madrid to their Anfield disappointment can back the visitors to score over 2.5 goals at 6/4. Los Blancos are also on offer at 8/5 to win the game to nil. 

Mbappé has been the dominant attacking player in La Liga so far this season. He has scored 13 times in 11 appearances and is priced at 12/5 to score first, and 8/13 to score anytime on Sunday. 

Jude Bellingham has also chipped in with a few goals since returning from injury, and the Englishman is available at 15/8 to score anytime here. Vinícius is priced at 11/8 in the same market, while you can back Rayo's top scorer De Frutos to score anytime at 7/2. 

You can bet on this match via our Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Odds page on the main betfred.com website, with all the latest prices and full betting markets.

Bet 1 - Rayo Vallecano to have over 9.5 shots & Rayo Vallecano to score over 0.5 goals @ 5/4 

Rayo Vallecano are far from the most clinical team in the world, but they are almost always competitive when they play at their small but atmospheric home. That tends to be true no matter the opponent. 

Since winning promotion in 2021, they've only lost two of their nine home fixtures against Real Madrid and Barcelona. They failed to score in only one of those games, and will fancy their high-intensity approach can force more mistakes out of the visiting backline in Sunday's game. 

Pérez's side are averaging 15.0 shots per home game in La Liga, the joint-fourth-highest figure in the division. I can see them testing Courtois throughout this encounter, and I'm using the Bet Builder to back Rayo Vallecano to have over 9.5 shots and Rayo Vallecano to score over 0.5 goals at 5/4. 

Bet 2 - Most corners - Rayo Vallecano @ 21/10 

While the visitors have a clear superiority in the striker department, and stand a chance of winning this match thanks to the clinical finishing of Mbappé, many of the other statistics are likely to be close. That includes the corner count, which Rayo shaded by a 4-3 margin in this fixture last season. 

This term, Real Madrid have averaged 5.20 corners won, and 4.40 corners conceded on their travels in La Liga. That's not a huge difference given they have been clearly the best team in the division. 

With their opponents averaging 8.25 corners won per home game, I'm backing Rayo Vallecano in the Most Corners market at 21/10. 

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Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:

• Points Staked: 79
• Points Returned: 82.80
• P/L: +3.8

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...