Barcelona vs Elche Prediction: Visitors’ can provide a 10/3 Value Bet

Barcelona need to get their La Liga campaign back on track following two defeats in their past three, leaving them already five points behind arch-rivals Real Madrid. They have a good chance to do so on Sunday evening (17:30) when they host Elche, live on Premier Sports 1 in the UK.

Our La Liga Betting expert Mark Sochon thinks that the visitors could provide a bit of a value bet. Let's take a look at his Barcelona vs Elche Predictions for the match here on Sunday...

*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com

Match Preview:

Barcelona have had a free midweek to stew over their defeat in El Clásico last Sunday. They return to action against an Elche side that has made a big impression since winning promotion from the Segunda División. 

Hansi Flick's side struggled for large periods at the Santiago Bernabéu. While they enjoyed 68% of the possession across the 90 minutes, it was Real Madrid who created much the better chances. The visitors needed Wojciech Szczęsny to make some good saves to limit the damage in a 2-1 defeat. 

That was the first time in five meetings with Los Blancos since Flick's arrival that Barça failed to win. Injuries certainly contributed to the defeat, while neither Lamine Yamal nor Ferran Torres looked fully fit after recent lay-offs. 

Barcelona are now wising up to the reality that they are going to face a major battle this season for the domestic silverware they swept up last term. Real Madrid have started well under Xabi Alonso and have already built up a clear advantage at the top of La Liga. 

The Catalans really need to get through this tricky period without any more dropped points. They've lost three of their last five games in all competitions, and league matches against Elche and Celta Vigo before the international break will likely see them tested again. 

Their opponents this weekend made one of the most impressive starts to a season that we've seen in La Liga by a newly promoted club in many years. Elche went undefeated in their opening seven matches, claiming victories over Levante, Real Oviedo and Celta at home. 

They've not been quite as convincing on their travels since holding Atlético Madrid to a 1-1 draw at the Estadio Metropolitano back in August. Their last two away league games have ended in defeats to Alavés and Espanyol, but they had the better of a goalless home fixture against Athletic Club in between those trips. 

Sunday's match will see their boss Eder Sarabia return to his former club. He was the Barcelona assistant during Quique Setién's turbulent spell in charge in 2020, one that was brought to an end by an 8-2 defeat against what was then Flick's Bayern Munich. 

Sarabia is remembered in the Catalan capital for having had a difficult relationship with Leo Messi and some of Barça's other stars at the time, but he has since successfully built a managerial career of his own. The 44-year-old guided Elche to promotion last season using a patient, ball-playing approach and that has continued to deliver results at a higher level. 

Elche are averaging 59.7% possession, with a passing accuracy rate of 87.3% in the top flight. They rank third behind only Barcelona and Real Madrid for each. That suggests Los Franjiverdes will enjoy much more of the ball than most teams manage against the defending champions. 

Team News: 

Elche's chances of getting a foothold in the game in the centre of the park are significantly boosted by the absence of Pedri for the hosts. The Spain international was always going to be suspended following his late red card in El Clásico, but he has also picked up a thigh injury, which looks set to rule the 22-year-old out for more than a month. 

In better news for Barcelona, they should have Robert Lewandowski and Dani Olmo available this weekend following injuries. However, Gavi, Raphinha and Andreas Christensen remain sidelined, while Szczęsny should continue in goal, with Joan García and Marc-André ter Stegen yet to recover from their issues. 

Elche are expected to be at full strength for this game. They've tended to use a 3-5-2 system this season, although they have switched to a back four in some of their recent fixtures. Rafa Mir, André Silva and Álvaro Rodríguez are competing for two places up front, while goalkeeper Iñaki Peña is available for selection against his parent club. 

Match Odds:

Barcelona are the 2/9 favourites to bounce back from their defeat last weekend with a victory. Elche, who were 4-0 winners against minnows Los Garres in the Copa del Rey in midweek, are priced at 11/1 to win the game. The Draw is available at 11/2. 

If you're expecting a strong response from the hosts, you can back Barcelona with a -2.00 Handicap at 6/4. They are also on offer at 13/10 to win both halves, while you can back the Catalans to score over 2.5 goals in the game at 8/11. 

Alternatively, Draw or Elche is on offer at 3/1 in the Double Chance market. You can back the visitors to score Over 1.5 goals at 10/3, while Both teams to score is priced at 4/5. 

Despite Lewandowski's return to fitness, Ferran still looks the more likely starter up front for the home team. He's available at 7/2 to score first, and 4/6 to score anytime. 

Marcus Rashford is on offer at 19/20 to score anytime, while you can back Yamal in the same market at the same price. Mir leads the way from a visiting point of view, with the ex-Sevilla striker available at 10/1 to score first and 11/4 to score anytime. 

You can bet on this match via our Barcelona vs Elche Odds page on the main betfred.com website, with all the latest prices and full betting markets.

Bet 1 - Elche to win either half @ 10/3 

Barcelona have had their fair share of injury problems this season, but Pedri's setback is the biggest blow yet to their chances of defending their title. The midfielder has been one of the standout players in La Liga, and has started every competitive fixture for club and country this season until this point. 

That should offer an opportunity to Marc Casadó, but they'll struggle to exert as much control without Pedri on the pitch. With serious concerns already about the defence, and fitness issues up top, this could be another tricky game for Barça against an Elche side that moves the ball well. 

It's hard to see the hosts producing a big performance over the course of the full game. They've already been found trailing at the break against newly promoted Levante and Oviedo this season, and at odds of 10/3, there looks to be value in backing Elche to win either half. 

Bet 2 - Highest scoring half - 2nd half @ 19/20 

This will be an interesting tactical battle, with Sarabia fairly wedded to his ideas of how football should be played. That will create a different kind of test for Barcelona, who are not used to visiting teams spending much time on the ball at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. 

It may take some time for them to figure out how best to counter that, and Barcelona have tended to perform better in the second half of matches this season. 60% of their league goals have come after the break, while 73% of Elche's strikes have also come in the second half. 

I can see this game becoming more stretched in the latter stages as defences tire and fresh legs are introduced off the bench. Given that, I'm backing the Second half in the Highest Scoring Half market at 19/20. 

Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:

• Points Staked: 73
• Points Returned: 71.94
• P/L: -1.06

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...