Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Prediction: Back Second Half specialists Real to do it again

The two biggest clubs in Spain have La Liga matches this week. On Tuesday it was Barcelona and on Wednesday night, it is the turn of Real Madrid. Premier Sports 2 is the TV channel to turn to for this 20:00 kick-off.
Our La Liga Betting expert Mark Sochon previews the action, provides the team news, match odds and of course his two Best Bets for the action. Let's check out his Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Predictions here on Betfred Insights...
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publication
*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com
With rumblings of discontent growing, there's already a degree of pressure building on Real Madrid boss Xabi Alonso. That will only intensify if they slip up again in a tough fixture in Bilbao on Wednesday night.
The assumption in the summer was that Alonso arrived in the strongest position of any recently appointed Real Madrid coach. He was backed heavily in the transfer market, and the expectation was that he'd be afforded more time than most to fully implement his ideas.
However, patience has never been a hallmark of the Santiago Bernabéu, be it among the club's hierarchy or its supporters. A run of three straight league draws and little sense that the team is improving, has raised the first major doubts about the Basque coach.
At present, Alonso's most significant issue seems to stem from within the dressing room itself. His poor relationship with Vinícius Júnior is already clear for all to see, with the Brazilian twice reacting angrily to being substituted.
While far from ideal, that situation in itself was manageable from Alonso's perspective. A wider dressing-room split would be far harder for the ex-Bayer Leverkusen boss to survive, but that's exactly what he's now dealing with, if the latest media reports are to be believed.
The latest setback came in the form of a 1-1 draw at Girona on Sunday. Against struggling opposition, Los Blancos failed to consistently threaten until the final 30 minutes, by which time they were already a goal down. They only salvaged a point thanks to a Kylian Mbappé penalty.
It doesn't get any easier in midweek, as Real Madrid return to the scene of a 2-1 defeat last December. The only minor positive from a visiting perspective is that things haven't exactly been going well for Athletic Club this season either.
Ernesto Valverde's side have looked a shadow of the team that finished fourth in La Liga and reached the Europa League semi-finals last term. They won their opening three fixtures, but it's just four victories and nine defeats in 16 matches in all competitions since then.
Even San Mamés, which has been such a fortress for Athletic in recent years, has been the scene of defeats against the likes of Alavés and Getafe. They were humbled 4-0 by Barcelona at Camp Nou the weekend before last, but did bounce back with a better performance in a 2-0 victory at Levante on Saturday.
There are various factors which have contributed to a decline in their fortunes. The many flaws in their squad have been laid bare by the demands of midweek Champions League football, with injuries to key players such as Iñaki Williams not helping either.
Many of their best performers have also suffered from a loss of form. Nico Williams has blown hot and cold, while last season's top scorer Oihan Sancet has only netted once this term. Even goalkeeper Unai Simón has had some shaky moments, with the Spain number one at fault for two goals against Barça.
Team News:
Sancet, who saw red at Camp Nou, serves the second match of his suspension on Wednesday. Athletic are also missing Robert Navarro, Beñat Prados and Maroan Sannadi to injuries, while Iñaki Williams and Yuri Berchiche are rated doubtful.
Those issues leave the hosts short on options in the final third. It could be a big night for 18-year-old Selton Sánchez, who is pushing for only his second start, while 22-year-old Nico Serrano could also feature.
As for Real Madrid, they're doing better on the injury front than was the case a week ago, when they travelled to play Olympiacos without four centre-backs, as well as Thibaut Courtois and Dani Carvajal.
Of those players, only Carvajal will definitely miss this game. However, Dean Huijsen and David Alaba are still rated doubtful. Trent Alexander-Arnold could be in line for another start, despite struggling to make much of an impression in three games over the past week.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
- Athletic Bilbao: Simon, Gorosabel, Laporte, Vivian, Berchiche, Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar, Berenguer, Sanchez, N. Williams, Gomez
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Alexander-Arnold, Militao, Rudiger, Carreras, Camavinga, Valverde, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Mbappe, Vinicius
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Odds
Real Madrid are the 4/5 favourites to gain some revenge for last season's defeat in Bilbao with a victory. You can back Athletic to triumph again at 10/3, while the Draw is priced at 11/4.
You can back the hosts to score over 1.5 goals at 2/1. They are priced at 16/5 to be leading at the break, while you can back Athletic Club to win either half at 7/5.
Alternatively, Real Madrid are on offer at 21/10 to win the game to nil. You can back the visitors to score over 1.5 goals at 8/11, while they are available at 6/4 to score in both halves.
Inevitably, Mbappé leads the way in the Goalscorer markets. The Frenchman has already scored 28 goals this season for club and country, and he's priced at 5/2 to score first, and 8/11 to score anytime at San Mamés.
You can back Vinícius to get on the scoresheet at 13/8, while Jude Bellingham is priced at 21/10 to score anytime. Nico Williams, who scored a brilliant solo goal in Athletic's last home game, is on offer at 3/1 in the same market.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Stats
- Only 29% of La Liga matches at the San Mames Stadium this season have resulted in Over 2.5 Goals.
- Real Madrid have 'won' the second half of matches eight times this season. Only Barcelona (11) have done so more.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Prediction 1 - Under 2.5 goals @ 11/10
Meetings between this pair tend to be tight. Seven of the last eight have served up two or fewer goals, and there's reason to think this one may go the same way.
Athletic are not playing with much quality in the final third. Even when everyone is fit, they don't have a convincing striker, so the unavailability of the likes of Sancet and Iñaki Williams has left them really short on firepower in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid continue to lean almost entirely on Mbappé for goals. They certainly aren't playing well enough as a team to suggest they are going to come to Bilbao and wrap up a big victory. Therefore, I'm backing Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Prediction 2 - Second-half result - Real Madrid @ 11/10
With Athletic potentially missing six players, this is a rearranged match that Valverde could probably have done without, not least given they also host Atlético Madrid and PSG over the next week. At some point he may need to rest players, but it's hard to see the home boss not picking a strong line-up here, for a fixture that always means a great deal to the San Mamés public.
That does leave them at risk of running out of steam in the second half, with few convincing options likely to be available to the Athletic boss off the bench. Given the lack of squad depth and the hectic schedule, it's surely no coincidence that their record in the second half of matches this season is poor.
Los Leones have scored seven and conceded 13 after the interval in La Liga. They've also tended to tire after the break in the Champions League. Given that, I'm backing Real Madrid in the Second-Half Result market at 11/10.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid FAQs
When is Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid?
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid will play one another on Wednesday, December 3, 2025 in the 25/26 La Liga season.
What time is Kick-Off in Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid?
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid will kick-off at 18:00.
Where can I watch Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid on TV?
Premier Sports 2 will be showing the Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid live on TV in the UK.
Who will win the Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid match?
The Betfred traders have Real Madrid 4/5 favourites to win the match. Athletic Bilbao can be backed at 10/3.
*Odds correct as of the time of publication
Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:
- Points Staked: 103
- Points Returned: 103.86
- P/L: +0.86
You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...






















