La Liga Winner Odds 24/25: Has Kylian coup killed off Barcelona’s & Atletico’s title chances?

The 2024/25 La Liga season gets underway on Thursday and it's shaping up to be another fascinating nine months or so in the Spanish top flight. Real Madrid wrestled the title back from Barcelona last season, finishing 10 points in front of their bitter rivals, and Los Blancos look like being the team to beat again this term.

Below you can find the La Liga winner odds 24/25 and my prediction on how the campaign will unfold.

Football Odds

Real Madrid @ 4/9

Real Madrid are looking to do something that hasn't been achieved since Barcelona in 2019/20 - retain the La Liga trophy.

Los Blancos romped home to a 36th league title last season and have further strengthened their side with the arrival of French superstar Kylian Mbappe from Paris Saint-Germain, and he has been joined by Brazilian wonderkid Endrick who agreed to join in December 2022 but had to wait to make the move until he turned 18 earlier this summer.

The duo join Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Arda Guler and Brahim Diaz as attacking options available to the evergreen Carlo Ancelotti, who also led the club to victory in the Champions League Final in June.

With goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and defender Eder Militao back fully fit after both missed large chunks of last season, Spain's most successful club looks even stronger than it did two months ago, just after winning the double.

However, the biggest question mark is over just how Mbappe fits into the forward line at Real. The 25-year-old appears to favour the left-hand channel, an area where Vinicius Jr. does most of his good work, so the onus is on Ancelotti to deploy a system that extracts the maximum from two world stars.

There will be more pressure heaped on the shoulders of Aurelien Tchouameni, too, after the retirement of Toni Kroos who dictated the Real Madrid midfield for a decade. Tchouameni's compatriot and close friend Eduardo Camavinga is also expected to play a more prominent role next to him after three seasons in and out of the starting XI and covering at left-back.

Real will also miss the leadership of Nacho Fernandez after the Spanish defender departed for the Saudi Pro League over the summer, so the likes of Antonio Rudiger and Federico Valverde will be even more vital next season.

It's hard to look past Los Blancos lifting the La Liga title again next May, even if Mbappe isn't an optimal fit on paper. Ancelotti is the king of throwing everything together and making it work - I'm certainly not betting against him doing so again with one of, if not the, best players in the world now under his tutelage.

Barcelona @ 7/2

It was a sorry season for Barcelona last time out as the weak defence of their title culminated in the exit of head coach Xavi Hernandez. The Catalan club only picked up three fewer points than their 2022/23 league-winning campaign but were well off the pace last season, even trailing Girona at the turn of the year before a strong finish saw them end up as runners-up.

Injuries affected the likes of Ronald Araujo, Alejandro Balde, Frenkie De Jong, Gavi and Pedri in 2023/24, so if the quintet can stay fit this time around, there will be more confidence that they can trouble Real in the title race.

Hansi Flick, who won the treble as Bayern Munich manager in 2019/20, has arrived to replace Xavi, and the German will be excited at the young talent at his disposal. Gavi and Pedri are well-established by now, but last season was a breakout one for Lamine Yamal, who shone throughout the campaign as a 16-year-old, missing just one league game.

Yamal subsequently announced himself as one of the stars of Euro 2024 as he helped Spain win the trophy, scoring once and registering four assists. He only turned 17 a day before the final, but he is already one of his country's leading lights and is expected to play a major role for his club this year.

Fermin Lopez scored eight times in La Liga last season and arrives into the new campaign off the back of a sensational summer where he helped Spain win Euro 2024 and the Paris 2024 Olympics, starring in the latter tournament with six goals in as many games.

The 21-year-old will compete for a place in Flick's starting XI with new signing Dani Olmo, who has rejoined the club 10 years after leaving for Dinamo Zagreb.

Olmo is Barcelona's only major signing so far, however, and their squad looks considerably weaker than Real Madrid's, who brought Mbappe in to an already star-studded squad.

Robert Lewandowski scored 19 league goals last season for Barcelona but can the 35-year-old, who has already shown signs that his best days are behind him, replicate that feat? Raphinha and Ferran Torres are useful players but neither have hit double figures in La Liga before, placing further pressure on Yamal to boost his own total this term.

Exciting times could lie ahead for Barca but financial problems still plague the club off the field, and on it, they aren't quite ready to compete with Real Madrid.

Atletico Madrid @ 9/1

Atletico Madrid last won La Liga in 2020/21 when Luis Suarez struck 21 times to hand Diego Simeone his second league title in charge of Los Rojiblancos.

Since then, it's been tough going for Simeone's side, who finished third in back-to-back seasons before being pushed down to fourth in 2023/24 after the emergence of Girona.

Alvara Morata, Saul Niguez, Memphis Depay and Mario Hermoso all left over the summer, leading the club to make a big splash in the transfer market.

Alexander Sorloth, who scored 23 times in La Liga for Villarreal last term and narrowly missed out on the Pichichi Trophy, has been brought in to replace Morata while Robin Le Normand has joined from Real Sociedad to beef up an unusually leaky defence that shipped 43 league goals in 2023/24 - more than fifth-placed Athletic Club (37) and sixth-placed Real Sociedad (39), who finished eight and 16 points behind them respectively.

Julian Alvarez and Conor Gallagher were also heavily rumoured to be on their way to Wanda Metropolitano, though at the time of writing, both deals are at risk of collapsing according to recent reports.

Should Atletico get both deals over the line, you wouldn't rule out Simeone weaving his magic once again and inspiring his charges to a title race, but I think it's probably more a case of rebuilding this season before launching an assault on top spot in 2025/26.

Girona @ 28/1

Girona enjoyed a sensational first half of the 2023/24 campaign, losing just once in their first 19 games to sit second at the start of 2024, level on points with leaders Real Madrid. Their start was so impressive that I felt compelled to write an article pondering whether Girona could go the distance in the La Liga title race.

I expressed fears over their February fixture list, and unfortunately, that is where the Catalan club fell over as they were held to a goalless draw by Real Sociedad and lost to Real Madrid (4-0) and Athletic Club (3-2). Girona were eventually overtaken by runners-up Barcelona but did finish five points ahead of Atletico in third to book their place in the Champions League group stage.

A tally of 81 points was mightily impressive, but as expected, Girona's best talents have been taken from them.

Last season's top scorer Artem Dobvyk, who picked up the Pichichi Trophy after striking 24 times in La Liga, left for AS Roma while midfielder Aleix Garcia was lured to Bayer Leverkusen by fellow Spaniard Xabi Alonso.

Winger Savio returned to Troyes following his loan spell and was subsequently sold to Manchester City, and fellow loanee Eric Garcia went back to Barcelona.

Donny van de Beek, Bryan Gil, Abel Ruiz and Ladislav Krejci are among the new arrivals, but Girona will do extremely well to even match last season's third-place finish, let alone mount another mid-season title challenge.

La Liga Odds

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