Juventus vs AC Milan Prediction: A third straight goalless H2H?

A spot in next Monday's Supercoppa Italiana final is up for grabs on Friday (19:00, Premier Sports 1) when Juventus and AC Milan face off in the competition's second semi-final, following the first on Thursday between Inter Milan and Atalanta.

Read on for my Juventus vs AC Milan prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this knockout tie at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Team News

Juventus remain without injured trio Bremer, Juan Cabal and Arkadiusz Milik but Jonas Rouhl and Timothy Weah are back in training and have been named in Thiago Motta's squad.

However, former captain Danilo has been left out amid rumours he is on his way out of the club.

Football Odds

Sergio Conceicao will take charge of his first game as AC Milan head coach on Friday following the recent sacking of Paulo Fonseca, who paid the price for a poor start to the season culminating in a 1-1 draw at home against AS Roma on December 29.

Conceicao will have to make do without the services of Samuel Chukwueze, Luka Jovic, Noah Okafor and Alessandro Florenzi, but Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Yunus Musah, Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao could all return from injury, although Leao will almost certainly be restricted to a late cameo appearance if he is passed fit to be included in the matchday squad.

Juventus vs AC Milan Odds

Juventus are 5/4 to triumph inside regulation time on Friday, giving the Old Lady an implied win probability of 55.6%, while Milan are 2/1, or a 33.3% chance, to get the job done inside 90 minutes on Conceicao's debut.

The draw, which would send the tie straight to a penalty shootout, can be backed at 21/10, and both teams to score is available at 4/5.

Correct Score - Draw 0-0 @ 15/2

Juventus have scored at least twice in their last six games but are by no means prolific scorers under Motta, averaging 1.6 goals per game in Serie A - fewer than four other clubs. Across all competitions, the Old Lady have played out five goalless draws under the former Italy international, blanking in front of goal but keeping clean sheets against Roma, Empoli, Napoli, Milan and Aston Villa. Four of those can be considered 'big' matches.

Milan, meanwhile, only drew 0-0 twice under previous boss Fonseca before his exit last month but, of course, one of those was against Juventus, and the other was as recently as December 15 when they were held at home by Genoa. Since that San Siro stalemate, I Rossoneri have scored just twice, beating Hellas Verona 1-0 at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi before drawing 1-1 against Roma, meaning just three goals have been struck in their previous three games combined.

With the likes of Milik, Weah, Leao, Jovic, Okafor and Chukwueze either out injured or unlikely to start, it doesn't bode well for a glut of goals on Friday. Juventus and Milan played out two goalless draws in 2024 and the two competitive meetings in 2023 saw just one goal scored in each, Milan winning 1-0 in Turin and Juventus exacting their revenge by triumphing by the same scoreline at San Siro.

A place in Monday's final is at stake, too, which could mean we see an even cagier contest than one would normally expect. Add in the fact this will be Conceicao's first game in charge of Milan and you get all the conditions of a 0-0, so at 15/2, that is my first tip for this Supercoppa Italiana semi-final.

Bet Builder - Tijjani Reijnders (MIL) 1+ Shots on Target, Theo Hernandez (MIL) 1+ Shots, Each Team Over 19.5 Booking Points @ 4/1

Milan midfielder Tijjani Reijnders has been a rare bright spark in a rather dismal season so far for I Rossoneri and is certainly one player Fonseca can't point the finger at for letting him down toward the end of his tenure. The Dutchman scored the final two goals of the Fonseca era, netting the winner against Verona and opening the scoring against Roma last time out.

Reijnders has registered a shot on target in three of his last four matches and is likely to play a key role in the Milan attack on Friday by arriving late into the box, so he looks a good bet to get at least test Michele Di Gregorio in the Juventus goal.

I'm also backing Reijnders' teammate, France full-back Theo Hernandez, to try his luck at least once in Riyadh. The 27-year-old is averaging 1.2 shots in Serie A, 2.2 shots per game in the Uefa Champions League and shot once in the first meeting between these two sides in November.

Hernandez spent much of the match against Roma in an attacking position on the left wing and fired off four shots against the capital club, so he should be able to muster at least one attempt on Friday.

The third and final selection in this 4/1 Bet Builder is for each team to receive over 19.5 booking points, something that has been achieved in two of the last three head-to-heads including November's goalless draw.

Juventus received 30 booking points in their last game of 2024 after Weston McKennie, Pierre Kalulu and Manuel Locatelli were all shown yellow cards in their 2-2 draw with Fiorentina, while yellows for Hernandez, Alvaro Morata, Reijnders and Matteo Gabbia earned Milan 40 booking points against Roma.

Offers

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