Juventus vs Genoa Prediction: Vlahovic will pick up from where he left

The early game from Serie A on Sunday comes from Turin as Champions League hopefuls Juventus take on mid-table Genoa. This game will kick off at 11:30 (UK time) and will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 2.

Our Italian Football expert has previewed this one for us at Betfred Insights as he picks out his two Best Bets in his Juventus vs Genoa predictions...

From title-chasers to having to defend qualification to next season’s Champions League.

Juventus’ fall in the last month and a half has been resounding, but not totally unexpected.

One win (in stoppage time against Frosinone), three defeats, four draws, eight goals conceded in the last four games and no clean sheets since 21 January (3-0 win at Lecce).

Juventus seem to have lost the pugnacious spirit that carried them through the first part of the season and are paying a high price for their many defensive mistakes.

But perhaps this mini-crisis can be explained by looking at the overall quality of Massimiliano Allegri’s side: the Bianconeri have a short squad, especially in midfield, and have been overachieving in the first part of the campaign.

Ultimately their shortcomings, and lack of creativity upfront, have emerged.

The lack of European football hasn’t seem to benefit Juventus either as they dropped two points against Atalanta who were coming from a tough round of fixtures and a mid-week trip to Lisbon.

Now the hosts have been leapfrogged by AC Milan in second position and need to seriously start looking over their shoulder.

Since 27 January only five teams have collected less points than Juve (seven in total), as Bologna and Roma, respectively seven and ten points away, are closing the gap.

This game on Sunday is therefore a must win for the Bianconeri, but Genoa, who have virtually achieved salvation, have always been a tough customer for Italy’s top sides.

Il Grifone have lost back-to-back games for the only the second time this season but last Saturday’s defeat (3-2 against Monza at Marassi) hasn’t tarnished an otherwise extremely positive season for the newly promoted side.

In fact, after 27 games they had achieved more than 30 points for the first time since 2014/2015.

During this campaign Genoa have taken points off most of Serie A’s top sides and if Alberto Gilardino’s men will play with the same courage they showed against Inter two weeks ago (when they did not deserve to lose 2-1) they’ll certainly cause Juve some issues.

Team News:

The big news for Juve is the return of their top-goalscorer Dušan Vlahović (15 goals so far) from suspension. The Serbian striker will play up front with Federico Chiesa, altough Arek Milik, who scored against Atalanta, is also in contention for a start.

It will be the usual 3-5-2 formation for Allegri with Gatti, Bremer and Danilo in defence. Miretti, Locatelli and McKennie should be confirmed in the middle with Iling Jr and Cambiaso playing as wing-backs.

Perin and Alcaraz are not available due to injuries, the conditions of Rabiot and De Sciglio are being monitored.

Genoa are without centre-back Sabelli (suspended), who will be replaced by Vasquez.

Badelj, Strootman and Frendrup will play in midfield, with Junior Messias supporting Gudmundsson (ten goals this season and two in the last two matches against Juve) and Retegui up front.

Juventus vs Genoa Odds:

The hosts are obviously favourite (1/ 2) to get the three points on Sunday. Juventus in fact have won 11 out of 16 home matches in all competitions, losing only once (1-0 to Udinese).

Juventus is the team that has beaten Genoa the most times in Serie A: 67 victories for the Bianconeri, 22 draws and 22 victories for the Rossoblu. The Old Lady is also the opponent who has scored the most goals against Il Grifone in the top division (225).

This season, the Bianconeri have won six of the eight home matches played against lower table oppositions.

The draw pays 3/1 as Genoa have shared the spoils four times away from home, including two 1-1s against Bologna and Napoli in 2024.

The odds for a visitors’ win (13/2) are not as high as you’d normally expect, considering Il Grifone haven’t won in Turin against Juventus since January 1991 (1-0, thanks to a goal from one of Italia 90 icons, the Czech centre-forward Tomas Skuhravy).

Looking at the goals market, the lowest odds are for Under 2.5 (8/13), given that only five out 14 (36%) of Juve domestic games have produced more than three goals.

Less than half of the Bianconeri and Genoa combined matches have registered Over 2.5 Goals (odds 6/5), but Juventus have conceded goals in each of their last four Serie A home games.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5

Juventus recent performances against both Napoli and Atalanta have been positive, despite the results. On both occasions, Juve created more than their opponents (and would have won both games bases on xG), but were extremely sloppy at the back.

Last Sunday, Juve went on the front foot against Atalanta at the start and in the second half, and almost completed a spectacular comeback.

Allegri is somehow trying to invert the trend, asking his team to defend higher up the pitch, and Juve are taking more risks.

The newly-promoted Rossoblù have been a very solid and organized side so far, capable of scoring against all Serie A top sides, both home and away. They’ve only been beaten by two goals or more once (2-0 vs Atalanta) on the road this season and have scored in five of their last six away games.

Dusan Vlahovic Anytime Goalscorer @ 5/4

However, Alberto Gilardino’s men have only kept three clean sheets in the last 17 matches in all competitions and conceded away from home in all but two occasions (1-0 win at Lazio and 0-0 draw vs Empoli).

The Serbian striker is not only Serie A’s second top goalscorer (15, eight less than Lautaro Martinez) but also Juventus main source of shots (87) and shots on target (32).

He missed a couple of glorious chances in Napoli, but has scored five times in Juve’s last four home games.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...