Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction: Returning goalscorer can take La Viola down

 | April 06 | 

6 mins read

Daniele Fisichella Serie A Tips

The Sunday night Serie A game live on TNT Sports (19:45) features a Juventus side who haven't won in four in the league, looking to get back on track against a mid-table Fiorentina side, who still have European Football ambitions for next season.

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella has previewed the match for us at Betfred Insights and has picked out his two Best Bets as part of his Juventus vs Fiorentina predictions...

Juventus vs Fiorentina Betting Tips

  • Dusan Vlahovic To Score Anytime @ 7/4
  • Match Result - Juventus and Under 3.5 Goals @ 13/10

A victory apiece in midweek was the perfect medicine for two sides that offered disappointing performances last weekend.

Juventus and Fiorentina were defeated by Lazio and AC Milan respectively and now meet on Saturday in what could be the prologue of Coppa Italia final on 15 May.

In fact on Tuesday the Bianconeri reacted well against a side, Lazio, that had beaten, and outplayed them, only 72 hours before.

La Viola defeated Atalanta 1-0 in the second semi-final thanks to a confident and pugnacious display.

The return legs of the semi-finals will be played at the end of the month and before then both sides need to pick themselves up in the league if they don’t want to miss out on their season’s target.

In fact Juventus has fallen six points behind AC Milan and are even risking being leapfrogged in third position by Bologna.

Vincenzo Italiano’s men are sitting in mid-table, three points away (but with a game in hand) from Lazio, and, as it stands, their only hope to play in Europe next season is represented by a victory in one of the two cup competitions (Fiorentina will play Viktoria Plzen in the first leg of the Conference League quarter-finals next Thursday) they’re still involved in.

When it comes to Juventus, it is enough compare the current points tally with the one from last season to understand something has gone wrong.

Not only, despite not playing in Europe during this campaign, Massimiliano Allegri’s side have the same points, after 30 games, as in 2022/2023, but they’ve only won one and drawn four of the last nine matches.

Only Salernitana, Frosinone and Sassuolo have done less well in the same period.

From title contenders (Juve approached the game against Inter in February only one point behind the Nerazzurri) to Champions League qualification hopers.

Juventus have still got a seven-points cushion on Roma (with the game at the Olimpico coming up) but Italy’s most important club, with a current squad full of experienced international players, can’t just speculate and is obliged to aspire to better things.

The visitors are also in a difficult period and manager Vincenzo Italiano, in his third, and last, season in charge, has seemed unable to correct some of his side’s old defects.

Thanks to their high press, Fiorentina are one of the teams that recover more balls in the final third of the pitch but struggle to create clear-cut scoring chances.

The relation between attacking football produced and goals scored is minimal compared to other Italian top sides, besides that Fiorentina’s high defensive line, and the lack of quick defenders, often allows oppositions more than a chance to score.

Team News:

Vlahovic is back from suspension and will lead the Juventus attack alongside Chiesa. In midfield Locatelli and Rabiot will play again after featuring in Coppa Italia and Mckennie is ahead of Miretti to start the match.

Allegri should revert to the trusted 3-5-2 formation, with Cambiaso and Kostic playing as wing-backs. In defence Gatti will return from the first minute alongside Bremer and Danilo.

Vincenzo Italiano is expected to make a couple of changes to the XI that lost 2-1 to AC Milan last weekend. Italian Under-21 Kayode started the Coppa Italia semi-final against Atalanta and should be preferred to Dodò at right-back.

Former Juve player Arthur Melo and Giacomo Bonaventura (he’s also returning from suspension) will regain their places in midfield as Rolando Mandragora (who scored a beautiful goal in midweek) and Alfred Duncan (in goal last weekend) will drop to the bench.

Riccardo Sottil and Kouame are in contention to start as left-winger, whereas Nico Gonzalez will play on the right-hand side of the front four with Beltran in support of Belotti.

Juventus vs Fiorentina Odds

The ‘Old Lady’ is favourite (5/6) to get the three points on Saturday night. Despite their recent crisis, Juventus have only lost one game at home this season (1-0 against Udinese) and have won 11 of the last 12 games against Fiorentina played in Turin.

The Bianconeri have kept a clean sheet in each of the last two games against La Viola whose last away success came in December 2020 (3-0 thanks to goals from Vlahovic, Caceres and an own-goal from Alex Sandro).

Considering only the last 11 games, both clubs would be in the right-hand side of the table: Juventus would be 11th with only 13 points and Fiorentina 16th (but with a game in hand), as they averaged exactly one point per match.

High odds for the draw (12/5), whereas a visitors’ win (18/5) looks the most unlikely outcome.

In fact, Fiorentina have won only two of the previous seven matches against Juventus in Serie A but have never conceded more than one goal during this period.

The most common result of matches between these two clubs is 1-0. Thirteen matches have ended with this scoreline, that’s why the odds for the Over 2.5 Goals (11/10) are sensibly higher than the ones for the Under 2.5 (4/6).

Dusan Vlahovic To Score Anytime @ 7/4

Last Saturday, Juve were outplayed by Lazio and created very little in front of goal. Since the end of January, Juventus have only scored nine times (three of which against Frosinone at home), and now have the eighth-best domestic attack of Serie A, having netted just one goal more than newly promoted Cagliari.

However, the return from suspension of Vlahovic (six goals in the last seven home games in all competitions at the ‘Juventus Stadium’) is great news for the hosts, who have never been defeated this season when the Serbian striker has found the back of the net.

Fiorentina are very inconsistent away from home: they’ve lost to Inter, AC Milan and Bologna, without scoring, and only collected 16 points so far.

Their ultra offensive approach makes you wonder whether they’re more suited to play cup competitions.

Match Result: Juventus and Under 3.5 Goals @ 13/10

La Viola are winless on the road since 22 December (1-0 in Monza) and their xGA (expected goals against) differential away from home is the highest in Serie A (+6.85).

Against such a leaky back-line, that so far has only kept four away clean sheets in all competitions, you’d fancy Juventus and its top striker to get chances.

Former Fiorentina hit-man Vlahovic has scored in Coppa Italia his 16th goal of the campaign (a personal record in his two seasons and half in Turin) and is the fourth Serie A player for more shots on target (32).

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...

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