Italy vs Israel Prediction: Azzurri to get back to winning ways

Italy will be looking to get back to winning ways against Israel in the Uefa Nations League on Monday (19:45, YouTube), after they let a two-goal lead slip to draw with Belgium last time out. The Azzurri have been looking better than their showing at Euro 2024 as they look to build to a more prominent future.

Israel were well beaten by France last time out and they remain bottom of League A Group 2 as they still wait for their first points of the tournament. Read on for my Italy vs Israel prediction, accompanied by match odds and team news.

Italy vs Israel Odds

Italy are 2/11, or an 84.6% chance, to win this match. Israel are valued at 14/1 to pick up their first victory, giving them an implied probability of 6.7%. The draw is on offer at 6/1 (14.3%).

Both teams to score is marketed at 5/4 and over 2.5 goals can be backed at 8/15.

Italy's Davide Frattesi has scored twice in the Nations League so far and one of them came against Israel last month. He is 7/5 to score anytime on Monday.

Andrea Cambiaso and Mateo Retegui were the scorers against Belgium last time out and they are priced at 5/1 and 1/1 respectively to find the back of the net in this contest.

Football Odds

Team News

Italy boss Luciano Spalletti will be forced into at least one change on Monday due to the red card Lorenzo Pellegrini picked up against the Red Devils. Nicolo Zaniolo has been called up to the squad as cover but it is doubtful that he will start as he has struggled for fitness at the start of the 2024/25 season.

Liverpool's Federico Chiesa is not in the squad due to his own fitness issues, while Gianluca Scamacca, Moise Kean, Giorgio Scalvini and Nicolo Barella have all been unavailable for selection this month as a result of injury.

Daniel Maldini, the legacy of Paolo and Cesare Maldini, could be handed his first start against Israel. Giacomo Raspadori might be handed an opportunity to join Retegui up front.

For Israel, they are missing Manor Solomon, Eli Dasa and Dor Turgeman due to hamstring injuries. Oscar Gloukh could come in for Solomon to support Tai Baribo in attack, alongside Omri Gandelman.

Italy and over 3.5 goals @ 6/4

After Italy had a disappointing Euros campaign after becoming the European champions three years ago, there were concerns that the Azzurri were regressing again. So far in the Nations League we have seen great improvements under Spalletti and it seems like there is still more to come.

The Italy boss looks to have finally landed on a system he wants to persist with and that should aid his team in their development. They will be annoyed with themselves at how they they dropped two points agains Belgium but I confident they can bounce back in style against a struggling Israel side.

I believe they can rack up a few goals in this match because they are facing a vulnerable defence who have conceded nine goals in three matches, averaging at three per 90.

When these two sides met last month, Italy won 2-1, and they are yet to keep a clean sheet in the Nations League, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the visitors pick up a consolation goal. However, it shouldn't matter because the Azzurri have more than enough quality to record a comfortable victory in Udine.

Yes, they are missing some key figures due to injury, but this highlights the quality and options Spalletti has in depth and I expect to see this in action on Monday.

Mateo Retegui anytime goalscorer @ 1/1

Italy's Retegui will be feeling confident after opening his Nations League account against Belgium the other night, and if we're being honest, are much tougher opponents than Israel. He will be relishing the chance to play against the group strugglers who can't stop leaking goals.

The Atalanta man is thriving at club level with seven goals in as many appearances in Serie A, so he is riding a wave of confidence right now. He will want to keep his momentum going on the international stage so he can return to his club and pick up where he left off.

He's expected to lead the line once again and with his side starting to click, I can't imagine he will be short of chances in this fixture, and I am confident he will put at least one of them away.

Offers

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