Italy vs Germany Prediction: 3/1 Musiala to star for visitors

A place in the Uefa Nations League semi-finals is up for grabs on Thursday night, as European heavyweights Italy and Germany will lock horns at San Siro for the first leg of their quarter-final tie (19:45).

Germany managed to top League A Group 3 while remaining unbeaten, and Italy finished runners-up behind France in Group 2. Read on for my Italy vs Germany predictions, as well as the latest team news and match odds.

Football Odds

Team News

Inter Milan's Federico Dimarco will be absent for the hosts, while Andrea Cambiaso is also a doubt for Luciano Spalletti's side. Therefore, Destiny Udogie or Mateo Ruggeri could move into the starting lineup.

Juventus' Manuel Locatelli has been left out of Italy's squad, and Spalletti could have a selection headache up front as Matteo Retegui and Moise Kean are both enjoying their best Serie A campaigns to date.

As for the visitors, Julian Nagelsmann has plenty of absences to deal with in the form of Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Felix Nmecha, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Florian Wirtz and Marc-Andre ter Stegen.

Leon Goretzka has been recalled to the Germany squad for the first time since 2023, while Yann Bisseck is one of two uncapped players within the ranks - along with Manchester City goalkeeper Stefan Ortega.

Italy vs Germany Odds

Italy are 7/4 to win in 90 minutes, giving them an implied win probability of 36.4%, with the draw currently available to back at 11/5 and Germany are 13/8.

Retegui leads the anytime goalscorer market at 21/10, while Deniz Undav is the shortest-priced for the visitors at 12/5.

Draw and both teams to score @ 16/5

My first tip is predicting both sides to find the back of the net, and the shares to be spoiled at the end of the 90 minutes.

Germany are unbeaten in 90 minutes across their last 15 internationals - Die Mannschaft's only defeat during that run was a 2-1 extra-time reverse against Spain in last summer's European Championship quarter-finals.

Nagelsmann's men won all three of their home matches in Group A3, sticking five past Hungry and seven past Bosnia and Herzegovina without reply, either side of a narrow 1-0 victory over the Netherlands.

The Germans were less convincing on their travels, drawing 2-2 with the Dutch and 1-1 with Hungary, and five of their last six Nations League away trips have ended in score draws.

Italy took 13 points from six group matches against France, Belgium and Israel but the lack of a true elite goalscorer may hinder them here.

Seven of the last eight meetings between these two nations have finished with both teams scoring, so I think backing a score draw is a sensible play at 16/5. 

Jamal Musiala to score anytime @ 3/1

With Bayer Leverkusen star Wirtz sidelined for this contest, plenty of the creative output will rest of the shoulders of Bayern Munich's Musiala.

Musiala enjoyed an excellent campaign at last year's Euros before Germany's tournament was cut short by eventual winners Spain. The 22-year-old has thrived in the Nations League this season, returning five goal contributions across his four appearances in the competition.

In addition, Musiala has racked up 17 goals for his club so far this term across all competitions, so I can see him playing a vital role for Germany on Thursday.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.