Italy vs Estonia Prediction: Azzurri to extend their perfect record against the Blueshirts

Italy will look to build on their 2-0 victory over Moldova in June as they continue their Fifa World Cup qualifying campaign against Estonia at Gewiss Stadium on Friday (19:45 BST, Prime Video PPV).

This will be Gennaro Gattuso's first match in charge of the Azzurri and with work to do in Group I, he will look to get off to a strong start. Read on for my Italy vs Estonia predictions, alongside the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Gattuso has already made clear that the Azzurri under his stewardship will revert to a four-man back line, following the failed three-at-the-back system under his predecessor Luciano Spalletti.

Alesandro Bastoni and Federico Gatti are the leading candidates to form his first centre-back pairing, while Federico Dimarco and Giovanni Di Lorenzo are likely to operate as the full-backs.

Goalkeeper and new Manchester City signing Gianluigi Donnarumma is set to continue captaining the side between the sticks.

Destiny Udogie, Samuele Ricci and Napoli striker Lorenzo Lucca have been omitted, while Francesco Pio Esposito, Giovanni Fabbian and Liverpool's Giovanni Leoni have all been selected for the first time.

Mateo Retegui, Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca and Giacomo Raspadori will all be competing to spearhead the hosts' attack.

Football Odds

Estonia are missing captain Karol Mets once again due to injury.

Veteran forward Henri Anier is the visitors' leading active goalscorer (23 goals in 102 appearances), but Rauno Sappinen (13 goals in 57 appearances) is the most likely candidate to lead their attack in Bergamo.

Mattias Kait is the highest-scoring midfielder in the squad, with 10 goals in 60 outings for the Blueshirts.

Werder Bremen shot-stopper Karl Hein, on loan from Arsenal should start behind a defence that could feature former Tottenham Hotspur man Maksim Paskotsi.

Italy vs Estonia Odds

Italy are the 1/14 favourites to win this clash, having won all of their seven meetings with Estonia to date. Five of them have been won to nil, which is priced at 8/15 (implied probability of 65.2%).

The draw is marketed at 11/1, while 28/1 to pull off the upset.

Italy have scored at least three goals in their last two head-to-head clashes with Estonia. They are 2/5 to hit over 2.5 goals on Friday.

Kean and Retegui head the anytime goalscorer market for the Azzurri at 1/2.

Italy to win to nil @ 8/15

Gattuso will look to get off to a positive start in Italy and Estonia provides him a good opportunity to mark his first game in charge with a victory. The Blueshirts are often outclassed against the by the bigger nations, which is reflected in their record against Italy - seven defeats from seven.

Italy are in the early days of a rebuild under their new boss but they still have plenty of quality at their disposal to see them defeat their visitors. As well as this, I think there is enough quality in their defence to see them record another clean sheet against Estonia.

The Azzuri have recorded shutouts in five of their seven wins over the visitors, while their defence hasn't been reached in their recent victories over Moldova and Belgium.

Moise Kean first goalscorer @ 5/2

I think Kean may win the tussle to spearhead Italy's attack on Friday, and I believe he can play a key role in this contest. The striker has bagged seven goals in 21 appearances in all competitions for the Azzurri, including a brace in his last appearance - a 3-3 draw with Germany in the Uefa Nations League quarter-finals.

The 25-year-old is waiting to get off the mark for Fiorentina this season but he produced 19 goals in 32 Serie A fixtures for La Viola in 2024/25. I think he can profit against an Estonian defence that has failed to record a clean sheet in their past five outings.

However, seeing he is 1/2 to score anytime, I am going for the striker to open the scoring on Friday night at the improved odds of 5/2.

Today's Football Fixtures

Offers

Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.