Italy vs Belgium Prediction: Can Spalletti make it three out of three?

Italy have made a belting start to this Nations League campaign by winning their opening two matches, both away from home, against France and Israel respectively. Luciano Spalletti’s side were massively disappointing at Euro 2024, losing to Switzerland in the last-16, but they have reached the final four of the last two Nations Leagues.

Meanwhile, Domenico Tedesco, who was born in Italy, is looking to get Belgium back to winning ways after their 2-0 defeat to neighbours France. These two meet at 19:45 on Thursday, and below you can find my Italy vs Belgium prediction featuring team news and more. 

Team News

Spalletti is trying to reduce the average age of the Italy squad and welcome through a new generation of young talent. On that note, a familiar name that carries a lot of weight is Maldini, the surname of Daniel, who has just been called up to the squad and could win his first cap. His father, Paolo, was one of the finest defenders of all time, so no pressure kid. 

Niccolo Pisilli of Roma is another uncapped youngster that could break through, while Liverpool’s Federico Chiesa misses out due to his lack of match fitness. Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Salvini are both recovering from ACL injuries and will miss the majority of the season, while Moise Kean is also out. It presents an opportunity for Lorenzo Lucca, who has scored five in nine for Udinese, as the former Napoli manager continues to work on his 3-5-2 system.

Football Odds

Romelu Lukaku is still working his way back to fitness so is not included here, neither is Kevin De Bruyne or Thibaut Courtois. That means Tedesco is without three big stars, but he has included Juventus’ Samuel Mbangula, who only made his debut in August at the age of 20 but has a lot of promise. 

Leandro Trossard and Lois Openda are expected to provide the attacking threat for Belgium, as the Arsenal man has been recalled having been left out of the squad for the September fixtures. He will look to make a big impact at the Stadio Olimpico as Belgium look to go level on points with Italy at the top of the group. 

Italy vs Belgium Odds

Italy are priced at 10/11 to win this game, with Belgium available at 3/1. A draw can be backed at 5/2, over 2.5 goals is 10/11, and BTTS is 4/5. 

Italy to win @ 10/11

Spalletti looks to have got a tune out of Italy in recent games and perhaps it was only a matter of time before Italy started to fire again. After winning Euro 2020 with experienced heads dotted around their team, it was expected that there would be a drop off those stars retired and the new players tried to take on the responsibility of wearing the famous blue shirt. 

The win over France last month was certainly eye-catching, and Spalletti has been boosted by the return of Sandro Tonali, an influential midfielder who is getting better and better for the national side. With Federico Dimarco scoring goals and providing thrust from left wing-back, I think they will be able to get the better of a Belgium side missing their star players.

Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11

Although there are some key players missing in the attacking areas for both teams, I think we should see a decent game in the Italian capital. Italy have won 3-1 and 2-1 in the Nations League so far this year, while Belgium beat Israel 3-1, before losing 2-0 to France. 

It might be a simple selection, but I think we will see another attacking display from Italy, while Belgium have the ability to strike on the break with pace and drive. Jeremy Doku could cause issues for the hosts, even though I think they will come out on top. I’m hoping for over 2.5 goals in this one. 

Acca Flex

Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.