Inter Milan vs Real Sociedad Prediction: Top spot in Group D is up for grabs

 | December 11 | 

5 mins read

san siro inter ac milan scaled

Both Inter and Real Sociedad have qualified for the next stage of the Champions League but who will top Group D?

Our Italian expert has cast his eye over the encounter at the San Siro and has picked out two bets for you to consider...

Inter Milan vs Real Sociedad Betting Tips:

  • Back Under 2.5 Goals @ Evens
  • Back Inter or Draw & Under 2.5 Goals in the Double Chance & Over/2.5 Goals market @ 13/10

The surprise package of this year’s Champions League, Real Sociedad, visit San Siro knowing that two results out of three will guarantee them an historic and illustrious first place in Group B.

The team from the Basque Country returned to Europe’s top competition after nine years and has impressed for their high intensity and dynamic style of football.

Both la Real and Inter are unbeaten in the group and in the reverse fixture, in Matchday one, the side from La Liga gave last year’s runners up an extremely tough game.

They took the lead after just four minutes thanks to Brais Mendez and came close to score the second goal in a couple of occasions. Inter needed to resort to all their experience and composure to rescue a point with Lautaro Martinez.

The home side, who have only lost three of their last 18 Champions League games (twice against Bayern Munich and in the Istanbul final against Manchester City), have certainly grown in confidence thanks to last year’s extraordinary run in Europe.

Thanks also to the addition of Marcus Thuram (eight goals and six assists so far), they can attack at blistering peace, score plenty (they’ve got Serie A’s best attack, with 37 goals), but also know how to manage games and wait for an opening in the opposition’s backline.

Wednesday’s game is not just about prestige, whoever finishes top of the group will avoid teams such as Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Manchester City in the knockout stages.

Everything’s set for an enthralling tactical battle and a very entertaining encounter, but will there be plenty of goals in it?

Team News:

Simone Inzaghi is expected to make two changes from the formation that beat 4-0 Udinese on Saturday.

Italian international Davide Frattesi, who was an unused substitute at the weekend, will replace Barella. Carlos Augusto will play as left wing-back in place of Federico Dimarco whose goal doubled Inter’s lead on Saturday.

For the Nerazzurri defenders Benjamin Pavard and Stefan de Vrij are still out, Dutch international Denzel Dumfries will also miss the game due to a muscular injury.

Real Sociedad top scorer Oyarzabal (nine goals in all competitions) missed the trip to Villareal as his wife gave birth but he will be fit to play on Wednesday. Spanish international Le Normand will also return to the starting XI after missing the last domestic game due to suspension.

Imanol Alguacil has got a couple of selection problems in midfield as both Berrenetxa and Brais Mendez (three Champions League goals this season) are out; 21-years-old Turrientes should start. Kubo (who scored at the weekend) and Sadiq will form the front three alongside Oyarzabal.

Match Odds

Inter, who have lost only one of their last 16 home matches in all competitions, are favourite (4/7) to win the game and finish top of the group. They have won 12 of their 15 Serie A matches this season, dropping points at San Siro only against Sassuolo (2-1 defeat) and Bologna (2-2).

The draw, which will see Real Sociedad claiming top spot, pays really well (3/1): the Spaniards have drawn seven games this season (three of them away from home).

The odds for a win for the visitors are slightly higher than the ones for the draw (18/5), the San Sebastián team are undefeated in seven games in all competitions (five wins, two draws) and have only lost away to Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid and Valencia.

Under 2.5 goals @ Evens

Both teams arrive to this game with plenty of confidence: Inter numbers are impressive as they’ve got eight more points in Serie A compared to last season and scored three more goals; on the other hand Real Sociedad have won their last four away games.

Only a couple of great saves from RB Salzburg goalkeeper Alexander Schlager stopped Alguacil’s team claiming the three points in Matchday five.

Real Sociedad have failed to score only in three games this season and the Neroazzurri, who have kept 12 clean sheets in all competitions so far, will be aware of the threat the visitors can pose.

Inter will try to set the tempo and make the most of the extra man in midfield, often the switches of play from one wing-back to the other create a numerical advantage and the shooting opportunity.

But the hosts, who normally start games very strongly at home, won’t go gung-ho, their recent European successes have been achieved thanks to patience and strong positional defence.

Since 2022/2023, 13 out of 18 Inter Champions League games have seen less than 2.5 goals scored.

Inter or Draw and Under 2.5 goals @ 13/10

Despite both teams achieving qualification to the next round, this game will probably have the feel of a tight knockout tie.

Real Sociedad are at their best when they press high, if they don’t play with intensity they risk to become a rather mundane and predictable side.

So far they’ve been impressive in Europe, now they need to prove themselves in one of the world’s most intimidating stadiums.

Real Sociedad’s season remains excellent (although due to Girona’s exploits they’re five points adrift from the fourth spot in La Liga) but perhaps recently they’ve slightly taken the foot of the gas.

They were below par in their 1-0 win against fourth division side Andratx in Copa del Rey last week and have only kept three clean sheets in the last eight games.

Psychologically knowing that a draw would be enough represents a great advantage, for a team that is no stranger to getting results in Europe away from home.

In fact the Basques won all three away games in last season's Europa League group stage before losing at Roma. That is one of only two defeats in their last 14 away European games (W7 D5).

Daniele Fishichella covers Italian football for us here at Betfred Insights. You can check out all the Football Betting Tips from the whole team here on our main Football page...

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