Inter Milan vs Atalanta Prediction: Back Martinez to score for Inter

A big match from Serie A this Wednesday night on TNT Sports, as Champions League chasing Atalanta make the trip to the San Siro for a 19:45 kick-off to take on top-of-the-table Inter Milan.

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella has picked out his two Best Bets from the game and you can check them out along with his Inter Milan vs Atalanta Predictions in our full match preview...

When this game was postponed back in January Inter were only two points ahead of Juventus. Back then, Max Allegri’s men took advantage of Inter’s trip to Saudi Arabia to play the SuperCoppa (which they deservedly won) and leapfrogged the Neraozzurri to set up a Scudetto showdown at San Siro on 4 February.

How things have changed in the space of less than a month.

Inter have not suffered from the fixtures’ congestion and kept on winning.

Juve on the other hand only collected two points in the previous four matches before their stoppage time win last Sunday against Frosinone.

So the gap at the top of the table has widened to nine points, which could become twelve if Simone Inzaghi’s men will continue their great run (they’ve won the last 10 matches in all competitions) in 2024.

Only in 2006/2007 the hosts achieved more points (67 that season, just one more than in the current campaign) after 25 matches.

Despite making seven changes from the formation that beat Atlético in midweek, Inter dominated the game last Sunday and scored four goals for the third consecutive Serie A match.

Inzaghi, who is also focused on the Champions League’s Round of 16 second leg against the Spaniards, will be particularly pleased with the performances at the weekend of some of those players, like Davide Frattesi (a goal and an assist) and Alexis Sanchez (an assist), who in Serie A represent a luxury as substitutes.

Atalanta suffered AC Milan’s aggressivity last Sunday and struggled to control the match. After falling behind, they were lucky to find the equalizer thanks to a heavily contested penalty transformed by Teun Koopmeiners (eight Serie A goals this season).

However after the break, the Orobici left the initiative almost entirely to the Rossoneri. Thanks to this 1-1 draw Gianpiero Gasperini’s men extended their unbeaten run to 10 matches in all competitions but are now sandwiched between Bologna, fourth in the table and two points ahead, and Roma, victorious on Monday and who have cut the deficit to two points.

Unlike Inzaghi, Gianpiero Gasperini did not do turnover last weekend and will inevitably have to rotate some of his players, considering Atalanta has a tough month ahead of them.

Even with key players missing, like Marcus Thuram and Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Inter will be able to threaten Atalanta, who, on the other hand, are no stranger to conceding away from home.

Team News:

Simone Inzaghi is dealing with a couple of injured players, like Marcus Thuram and Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Both the French striker and the Turkish midfielder are likely to be back for the game against Bologna on 9 March. Marko Arnautovic and Kristjan Asllani are expected to start the game on Wednesday.

Pavard and Bastoni will return to form the back three alongside De Vrij (who scored his first goal of the season last Sunday). Barella will also be in the starting XI, Frattesi is in contention with Mkhitaryan to begin the match.

In the Atalanta’s camp, Ademola Lookman or Gianluca Scamacca should replace De Keteleare up front. Zappacosta is ahead of Holm for a place at left wing-back, Toloi might play instead of Kolasinac. Scalvini suffered a shoulder injury against AC Milan and his presence is in doubt.

Inter Milan vs Atalanta Odds:

The league leaders Inter are big favourite (4/6) to get the three points. This season they’ve only lost one game at home (against Sassuolo) and have taken the lead in all but one (0-0 vs Real Sociedad) match played in front of their home crowd.

The Neroazzurri have been the winners of the last three Serie A meetings with Atalanta by a single goal.

The draw pays 3/1; a result that would still go down well with Inter considering their healthy lead on Juve.

Atalanta have drawn three and lost five Serie A games away from home this season.

On the road they’ve only beaten Sassuolo, Verona, Empoli and Genoa and perhaps that’s why a victory for Gianpiero Gasperini’s men pays 4/1.

Inter have scored in all their 24 Serie A matches and three of Atalanta’s last four games have ended with three or more goals. The odds for the Over 2.5 Goals are 8/11, but it’s worth considering that Inter have kept 15 clean sheets in Serie A and conceded only 12 goals. Under 2.5 Goals pays Evens.

Half-time result: Inter @ 23/20

Seventeen of the Neroazzurri’s thirty domestic goals have come before the break. Inter produces chances aplenty (they’re second for shots and first for corners taken in Serie A) and the only criticism that could be moved to them is that they often waste scoring opportunities.

San Siro is used to admire Inter dominating from the start, in fact they have never trailed at home this season after the first half and have only conceded once in the opening 45 minutes.

Atalanta’s numbers away from home are average: they have only collected 14 points and have only won three out of 12 games at half-time. Currently in first halves they have a negative goal difference (-2), having conceded ten times.

Lautaro Martinez Anytime Goalscorer @ 19/20

Inter’s captain is the typical ‘streaky striker’.

He often scores for a couple of weekends in a row and has already found the net three times (twice against Lecce and once against Salernitana) in his previous two league games.

After a small muscular injury that made him miss a couple of matches at the end of 2023, the Argentine has come back stronger, founding the net in six out of ten games.

Lautaro is having is best season ever in Italy, he now has 101 goals in 196 Serie A appearances, and last Sunday became the ninth player in the club’s history to reach this landmark.

Furthermore, he has scored every other match (five goals in ten games) he has faced Atalanta.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...