Inter vs Juventus Prediction: Back the home side to score first

Our Italian Football expert nailed his predictions in the Big Game preview a week ago, with 11/10 and 7/5 winners for his Fiorentina vs Inter piece.

It is Inter vs Juventus this week as he looks to carry on that form for the live game on Sunday evening on TNT Sports. The match kicks-off at 19:45 and here is his preview and predictions...

With Inter back at the top of Serie A, just one point ahead of Juventus and with a game in hand, this Sunday’s ‘Derby d’Italia’ is finely poised. This is both the strongest rivalry in Serie A and the biggest game of this season and the widespread opinion is that a win for the Neroazzurri would virtually end the title race.

Last Sunday Inter took advantage of their direct rivals dropping points at home against Empoli. Simone Inzaghi’s men produced a valiant and sturdy performance in Florence, but it was not all plain sailing.

After taking the lead thanks to Lautaro Martinez’s 19th Serie A goal of the season, Inter missed chances to go 2-0 and ended up defending deep.

A draw, considering Fiorentina squandered a penalty, would have been a fairer result, but Inter were coming back from playing two games in three days in Saudi Arabia.

Juventus' result, a 1-1 draw in Turin against relegation-bound Empoli, was disappointing but it hasn’t drastically changed Massimiliano Allegri’s plan ahead of this Scudetto clash.

In fact the Bianconeri’s objective has always been to arrive at the game at San Siro within touching distance of the Milanese. When the Champions League will resume next month Juventus will undoubtedly be the fresher of the two sides.

That’s why the pressure is on Inter to make the most of the home advantage and build a healthy lead ahead of their tough schedule. Playing for the draw, as the Neroazzurri did in the reverse fixture, would keep Juve alive in the title race and help boost their confidence.

With 53 points in the table (their second-best tally after 22 games since 2020) and no defeats since late September, the Bianconeri have, so far, accomplished their mission.

On Sunday, Juventus are called to overcome their limits, mainly represented by a difficulty in playing in the opposition’s half, and produce a powerful display in their most important Serie A games of the last three seasons.

Team News:

Nicolò Barella and Hakan Çalhanoğlu are back from suspension and will start in midfield for Inter alongside Henrikh Mkhitaryan. Defender Francesco Acerbi, who played in the second half in Florence, will start in place of Stefan De Vrij, and Federico Dimarco, who was rested last Sunday, will play as left wing-back instead of Carlo Augusto.

Matteo Darmian is ahead of Denzel Dumfries for a start at right wing-back. Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram will play upfront.

Juventus will be without Milik (suspended) but they have been boosted by the recoveries from injury of both Adrien Rabiot and Federico Chiesa. The Frenchman will play in midfield alongside Manuel Locatelli and Weston McKennie who suffered a small ankle problem last week but he’s no fully fit. Miretti will drop to the bench.

Kenan Yildiz, who was initially left out of the team against Empoli, should start in attack alongside Dusan Vlahovic.

Brazilian defender Danilo, who did not play against last week to avoid being booked and missing Sunday’s match, will regain his place in Juve’s back three alongside Gatti and Bremer.

Match Odds

Serie A leaders Inter are favourite (5/6) to get the three points on Sunday. This is probably one of the highest prices you’ll find this season to back a Neroazzurri home win. Thanks to their success in Florence, Inter have collected 54 points in their first 21 league matches for the second time in their history, in 2006/2007 they had 57 points and won the Scudetto.

The draw pays 12/5 as the reverse fixture ended 1-1. Back then Inter controlled the game for large spells, but rarely threatened Juve’s goal, and it looked like a fear of exposing themselves to a counterattack blocked their initiative.

The odds for a win for the visitors are extremely high (7/2), considering Juventus have lost just one game this season (4-2 to Sassuolo) and are unbeaten in 21 games in all competitions.

Under 2.5 Goals pays 4/6 as often Serie A’s big matches are cagey affairs. However, Inter are the top scorers in Serie A (50 goals), and have only failed to score once (0-0 against Real Sociedad) in their last 20 home games.

Six of the last nine ‘Derby d’Italia’ have produced two goals or fewer.

Juventus have conceded only three goals (against Bologna, Lazio and Inter) against the league’s top nine teams, and they won four matches by 1-0 (against Milan, Fiorentina, Napoli and Roma). The odds for Over 2.5 goals are 11/10.

Both Teams To Score @ EVS

Despite this being a meeting between Italy’s top two defences who’ve kept most clean sheets so far, you’d expect it to be more open than the reverse fixture.

The xG metrics also suggest both sides have over performed defensively. In particular the Serie A leaders, Inter, have the fourth xGA (expected goals against) positive difference, thanks also to Verona and Fiorentina missing a penalty apiece, which would have cost them four points in their last three games.

Strikers on each camp are oozing with confidence: Lautaro Martinez has helped Inter lifting the first trophy of the season (the SuperCoppa) and has scored 124 goals with Inter and is currently the club’s eight all-time goalscorer (level with Mauro Icardi).

Dusan Vlahovic is in great form (six goals in the last four games) as the partnership with 18-year-old Kenan Yıldız has helped Juve becoming more threathening.

Inter to score first and Over 1.5 Goals @ 21/20

Inter have a habit of starting games strongly, especially at San Siro, where they scored more than half of their goals in the first 45 minutes.

Inter have displayed a better style of play and a greater tactical flexibility but Juve’s mentality and their ability to resist under siege and hit on the counter can’t be underestimated.

The hosts have a +17 goal difference compared to Juve, but fourteen different players have found the net for the Bianconeri in all competitions this season, one more than Inter (13).

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...