Heidenheim vs Chelsea Prediction: Blues to lose 100 per cent record in Germany

Heidenheim's fairytale story continues on Thursday (17:45, TNT Sports 1) with a Uefa Conference League clash against Chelsea. Head coach Frank Schmidt took charge of a recently restructured club in 2007 and has masterminded their rise from the fifth tier of German football to the Bundesliga, where they earned promotion at the end of the 2022/23 season before finishing eighth in their maiden top-tier campaign.

That's the short version of the story, one which takes in another exciting chapter this week as one of the world's most famous clubs pitch up at the Voith-Arena. Below you can find my Heidenheim vs Chelsea prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this league phase fixture.

Team News

Heidenheim suffered a huge injury blow on the weekend after leading goalscorer Marvin Pieringer was forced off in the first half of Saturday's 5-2 battering by reigning Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen, who were trailing 2-0 at the BayArena before Pieringer's problem saw him substituted in the 28th minute; Leverkusen scored two minutes later and were level less than 120 seconds after that.

Bayern Munich loanee Paul Wanner replaced Pieringer against Xabi Alonso's side and may be called upon from the start on Thursday.

Luke Janes, Marnon Busch and Julian Niehues all remain in the treatment room, too.

Football Odds

Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca has been fielding almost entirely different starting XI's in the Premier League and the Conference League, with the likes of Filip Jorgensen, Tosin Adarabioyo, Renato Veiga, Mykhailo Mudryk and Christopher Nkunku primarily involved in the latter competition.

The quartet are all expected to begin Thursday's game while Jadon Sancho and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall will both be hoping for starting berths after late substitute appearances in the Blues' 2-1 win at Leicester City on Saturday.

Heidenheim vs Chelsea Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Heidenheim vs Chelsea page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Heidenheim are 6/1 outsiders to beat the Blues, giving the Germans an implied win probability of 14.3%, while Chelsea are 4/9, or a 69.2% chance, to make it four out of four victories in the league phase.

The draw is available at 18/5, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

Nkunku (5/4) is considered Chelsea's most likely anytime goalscorer, closely followed by fellow forwards Joao Felix and Marc Guiu (both 8/5). Meanwhile, Mikkel Kaufmann (16/5) is first up in the market for Heidenheim.

Double Chance - Heidenheim or Draw @ 7/4

This may seem like a strange pick considering Chelsea are top of the league phase standings having won all three games and scored 16 goals. The Blues have beaten Gent (4-2) and Noah (8-0) at Stamford Bridge either side of a 4-1 victory over Panathinaikos in Athens and come into Thursday's contest off the back of a 2-1 win at Leicester City that kept the Blues third in the Premier League.

However, like Chelsea, Heidenheim have a 100 per cent record in the Conference League, opening up their league phase campaign with a 2-1 triumph at home against Olimpija Ljubljana before away wins at Paphos (0-1) and Hearts (0-2). They haven't even scored a third of the goals that their next opponents have but, crucially, they have conceded a third of the Blues' total.

Unfortunately for the German side, they have been unable to juggle the demands of European and domestic football for the first time, with Saturday's 5-2 thrashing at Bayer Leverkusen pushing them down into 15th, just one place and two points above the relegation play-off berth.

Their contrasting form in Germany and in Europe could be put down to the level of the opposition, with none of Olimpija Ljubljana, Paphos or Hearts posing anywhere near the sort of threat they usually face in the Bundesliga.

Chelsea are likely to pose a serious test of their European credentials with the two-time Champions League winners showing that they are not messing around in the competition, despite consistently fielding second-choice starting XIs.

Nevertheless, I believe there is value to be had in backing Thursday's hosts to avoid defeat.

Like Heidenheim, Chelsea haven't faced particularly challenging opponents in the league phase yet, and on paper, this could be their toughest assignment.

Still, Maresca will expect his side to emerge out of the other end with all three points, especially as their German hosts have lost four of their last five games.

However, while things are going smoothly for Chelsea at the moment, I do expect one or two bumps in the road, and the patience of their second-string stars, who are continually being snubbed in the Premier League, may start to wear thin sooner rather than later.

This is arguably the biggest match in Heidenheim's history and you can bet they will be up for it. If Chelsea don't start strongly then I do wonder whether the hosts can get on top of their visitors and make things uncomfortable for them.

The Blues don't need to go for broke on Thursday with qualification for the knockouts - without the need for a play-off - already looking pretty assured and games against FC Astana (A) and Shamrock Rovers (H) still to come.

A win is pushing it for Heidenheim but considering it's something of a free swing, I like 7/4 as a price for the Bundesliga minnows to at least avoid defeat.

Player to Receive a Card - Renato Veiga (CHE) @ 15/8

Veiga has been eased into Premier League action since joining Chelsea from Swiss Super League side FC Basel in the summer. The 21-year-old has made just five appearances in the competition for the Blues, starting just once - the 1-0 win at AFC Bournemouth on September 14.

However, he's already been booked twice in the English top flight, on his only start against the Cherries and also as a substitute in the 2-1 loss to Liverpool at Anfield on October 20. Those remain his only cards for the Blues but he's been busy making fouls in other competitions.

The Portugal international gave away four free-kicks in Chelsea's 5-0 thrashing of League 2 Barrow in the Carabao Cup on September 24 and made four fouls in their 2-0 defeat to Newcastle United in the same competition on October 30.

Veiga is yet to concede a free-kick of penalty at Stamford Bridge in the Conference League but he committed three fouls in Chelsea's only away outing so far in Greece.

He also averaged 2.3 fouls per game in Portugal's Uefa Nations League campaign, making six fouls against Poland (five away, one at home) and one against Croatia.

I expect Veiga to start in Heidenheim on Thursday, somewhere on the left-hand side of the Chelsea defence or in midfield, and that marks him out as a major candidate to be carded with Niklas Dorsch, who was fouled twice by Omonia and three times by Paphos, likely to be buzzing around in his direction.

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