Hearts vs Viktoria Plzen Prediction: Czech-mate for Jam Tarts in Europa League?

A spot in the new-look Europa League group stage is up for grabs at Tynecastle Park on Thursday (19:45, BBCiPlayer/BBC Scotland) when Hearts of Midlothian host Viktoria Plzen in the second leg of their Europa League play-off tie. The Czech side won the first leg 1-0 in Plzen last week but without the away goal rule, it's all to play for in Edinburgh.

Read below for my Hearts vs Viktoria Plzen prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this crucial clash in Scotland.

Team News

Hearts duo Beni Baningime and Calem Nieuwenhof are yet to feature this term due to injury and both have been ruled out of Thursday's fixture.

Jam Tarts head coach Steven Naismith could make several changes to the side that lost 3-1 at Motherwell on Sunday, the club's fourth defeat on the bounce. Kenneth Vargas and Cameron Devlin are both in line to return to the starting XI after being restricted to substitute appearances at Fir Park, while Japanese midfielder Yutaro Oda did his chances of beginning Thursday's game no harm by scoring off the bench against the Well.

Football Odds

Plzen haven't played since beating Hearts in the Czech Republic after being given the weekend off. In that time, the club have sold Czech international centre-back Robin Hranac, who played the duration of the first leg, to German side Hoffenheim.

The 24-year-old is yet to be replaced in the market so head coach Miroslav Koubek could promote either Cory Sene - who was sent off three minutes into his Plzen debut against Karvina on August 11 - or Vaclav Mika from the bench.

Hearts vs Viktoria Plzen Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Hearts vs Viktoria Plzen page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Hearts are 23/10 to get the victory they need to at least take the tie to extra time, giving the Jam Tarts an implied win probability of 30.3%, while Plzen are 19/20, or a 51.3% chance, to do the double over their Scottish opponents. The Czech side only need a draw to send themselves into the single 36-team league phase, however, and that result can be backed at 12/5.

Both teams to score (90 mins) is available at 4/6 and over 2.5 total goals (90 mins) is priced at 4/5.

Double Chance & Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals - Draw or Viktoria Plzen & Under @ 7/5

Plzen finished third in the 2023/24 Czech First League, 10 points behind runners-up Slavia Prague and 14 points off champions Sparta Prague. They've made an unbeaten start to the new season, winning four of their five league games, scoring 13 times and conceding just once.

The Czech side also won both legs of their Europa League third-round qualifier with Ukrainian outfit Kryvbas, beating their opponents 2-1 in Kosice (Slovakia) before edging them out 1-0 at home. Last week's win against Hearts means they are now unbeaten across eight games in all competitions this term, seven of which they have won, and they have kept clean sheets in seven of them - including all three Europa League qualifiers.

Plzen won narrowly against Hearts last Thursday, requiring an own goal from Daniel Oyegoke deep into second-half stoppage time to ensure they take a lead to Scotland this week. However, it's fair to say they had the better opportunities in the first leg, and if anyone deserved to win, it was the Czechs.

Hearts won't have been too disturbed by that scoreline, given that they only need to win by one goal to take the tie to extra time, while triumphing by two would send them through to the league phase at the expense of Thursday's visitors.

However, in complete contrast to Plzen, Hearts have made a torrid start to the season, failing to win any of their five matches so far. Naismith's side actually started positively, holding Rangers to a goalless draw in the league at Tynecastle, but four straight defeats have followed - two in the Scottish Premiership, one in the Scottish League Cup, and one in Europa League qualifying.

The hope will be that the crowd at Tynecastle can lift the Jambos on a European night, inspiring them to a famous victory, but I think Plzen are too experienced to be overawed by the occasion, while having a week to prepare for the second leg in Edinburgh should stand them in good stead.

Plzen are looking to record a fifth successive shutout on Thursday, and I wouldn't put it past them to achieve it. Should Hearts finally break their resistance, though, I'd back the Czechs to come back and avoid defeat by drawing 1-1.

The double chance result on Plzen and under 2.5 total goals in regulation time looks good to me.

First Half Total Goals 2-Way - Under 0.5 @ 2/1

As I'm already backing under 2.5 total goals, it makes sense to look at the under 0.5 first-half total goals market, too. This selection landed in last week's first leg, with little between the two sides, and it took until the sixth minute of second-half stoppage time for a goal to finally appear in the game.

I see Thursday's contest being similarly tight and closely fought, with Plzen more than happy to bide their time and wait for a route to goal open up. Of course, Hearts will be applying more pressure and seeking to inject some urgency into the match, but it's easier said than done against this stubborn Czech side that has conceded just one goal in eight games this term.

Expect events to get more exciting in the latter stages as the hosts throw the kitchen sink in a bid to level the tie.

Offers

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