Gremio vs The Strongest Prediction: Hosts to show their own strength

 | Tuesday 28th May 2024, 16:00pm

Tuesday 28th May 2024, 16:00pm

Defeats in their first two games of Copa Libertadores Group C had put Gremio in a perilous position for qualification to the knockouts, but a 1-0 win at Estudiantes last time out has given the Brazilians hope ahead of their return fixture with The Strongest at the Arena do Gremio on Wednesday (KO, 23:00).

Ahead of this contest in Porto Alegre, you can check out my Gremio vs The Strongest prediction below and read up on all the latest team news and match odds.

Gremio vs The Strongest Betting Tips

  • Gremio to win & under 2.5 goals @ 11/5
  • Franco Cristaldo anytime goalscorer @ 6/4

Gremio began their Libertadores campaign with a 2-0 defeat to The Strongest in La Paz - Luciano Ursino and Enrique Triverio striking in either half to get the Bolivians off to a great start in Group C.

Things didn't get any better in Brazil six days later as Gremio lost 2-0 at home to Chilean outfit Huachipato, and their chances of progression from the group appeared bleak when Mathias Villasanti was dismissed in the 66th minute of their game with Estudiantes in La Plata, Argentina.

However, Nathan Fernandes struck in the 75th minute to give Gremio a vital three points, and they are now just two points and a point behind Huachipato and Estuadiantes respectively, having played a game fewer than both.

Remarkably, it is still in their hands to finish top as, despite sitting seven points above Gremio, The Strongest play their final match on Wednesday.

The Bolivians have been beaten just once so far, losing 2-1 at Estudiantes six days after triumphing against Gremio, and have kept four clean sheets. The Strongest held Huachipato to a goalless draw in Chile and beat them 4-0 at home either side of a 1-0 victory over Estudiantes in La Paz.

Wednesday's visitors to Porto Alegre are in pole position to finish as group winners but need all three points this week to make sure of that.

Team News

Villasanti will serve his one-match suspension on Wednesday, joining the injured quintet of Pedro Geromel, Gustavo Martins, Lucas Milla, Andre Martins and Jhonata Roberts on the sidelines.

The visitors are definitely without injured pair Daniel Lino and Jaime Arrascaita, while Diego Wayar is a doubt after being withdrawn before the half-hour mark of Monday's 1-0 win at Oriente Petrolero.

Gremio vs The Strongest Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Gremio vs The Strongest page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Gremio are 1/6 to win on Wednesday, giving them an implied win probability of 85.7%, while The Strongest are 11/1, or an 8.3% chance to pick up all three points.

The draw can be backed at 5/1, both teams to score at 5/4, and over 2.5 goals at 4/7.

Gremio to win & under 2.5 goals @ 11/5

Gremio made a horrific start to the group, losing their first two games, but winning with 10 men in Argentina last time out in the competition should give them tremendous confidence heading into Wednesday's contest.

They were beaten at home by Huachipato last month, but that's their only defeat at the Arena do Gremio since November 12, and they've won 12 of their last 14 there.

The Strongest, meanwhile, have been heavily reliant on their home form. They won all three group games in La Paz, scoring seven without conceding, but have only picked up one point from two away matches, conceding twice and scoring just once.

The Bolivian side's last five away matches across all competitions have seen two or fewer goals scored, and they themselves have failed to fire in two of the last three on their travels.

Gremio's last three home games have seen under 2.5 goals, and they won the last two of those, 1-0 against Cuiaba and 2-0 against Athletico Paranaense.

Another low-scoring victory for the Brazilians looks the play here.

Gremio to beat The Strongest & under 2.5 total goals at 11-5

Franco Cristaldo anytime goalscorer @ 6/4

Franco Cristaldo is yet to get off the mark in this year's Libertadores, but the Uruguayan has struck in six of Gremio's last eight home games, including their last two in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A against Athletico Paranaense and Cuiaba.

The 27-year-old wasn't in the squad for April's reverse fixture with The Strongest but started against both Huachipato and Estudiantes and looks likely to be selected for Wednesday's starting XI.

Cristaldo is a longer price than both Diego Costa (19/20) - who isn't a guaranteed starter and hasn't scored in his last four starts - and Yeferson Soteldo (7/5), who has struck just twice this calendar year, and only once since January 25.

Franco Cristaldo anytime goalscorer at 6-4

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 50% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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