France vs Italy Prediction: Expect a low scoring affair in Paris

It is a clash of traditional football heavyweights on Friday evening (19:45) in the Nations League as Italy travel to France in a game yet to have a TV channel allocated, as of the time of publication.

Our Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella who got the assignment for this one as he previews the encounter and gives us his France vs Italy Predictions...

In a highly anticipated UEFA Nations League encounter, Italy will face off against France, renewing a storied rivalry between two of Europe's football heavyweights.  

Italy, under the guidance of Luciano Spalletti, is aiming to bounce back from their underwhelming Euro 2024 performance, where questions were raised about their tactical approach and energy levels.  

Spalletti acknowledged tactical errors and the pressure that burdened a squad struggling for direction. In response, he's focused on simplifying Italy's strategy, opting for a three-man defence that plays to the strengths of key players like Alessandro Bastoni and Federico Dimarco. His approach emphasizes not just tactics but also morale, aiming to rebuild trust and unity within the team. 

France, despite reaching the Euro 2024 semi-finals, has faced criticism for their lacklustre offensive output, scoring just four goals in the tournament.  

Coach Didier Deschamps, whose pragmatic style has come under scrutiny, faces calls for a more dynamic approach. Balancing experience with fresh talent, Deschamps has introduced new faces like Michael Olise and Manu Kone, hinting at a potential shift towards a more creative and unpredictable attacking strategy. 

Historically, the rivalry has provided plenty of drama. The two nations have met in key tournaments over the years, including the Euro 2000 final, where France triumphed 2-1, and the 2006 World Cup final, which Italy famously won on penalties after a 1-1 draw.  

More recently, Italy got the better of France with a 2-0 victory in the group stages of Euro 2008.  

With both sides looking to make a statement, the upcoming clash promises to be another chapter in this storied rivalry. 

Team News: 

Italy's squad reflects a blend of experience and fresh talent, with 11 players boasting five caps or fewer.  

Only Caleb Okoli and Marco Brescianini remain uncapped in Spalletti's selection. Missing from the line-up is Nicolo Barella, while Sandro Tonali has returned to the squad but is not expected to start.

Instead, Davide Frattesi is set to anchor the midfield alongside Nicolò Fagioli and Lorenzo Pellegrini. Upfront, Moise Kean and Mateo Retegui could form the attacking partnership as Italy seeks to inject more energy into their play. 

France, meanwhile, is dealing with a number of absences.  

Key players Benjamin Pavard, Lucas Hernandez, Adrien Rabiot, and Kingsley Coman are all sidelined for the upcoming fixtures. Didier Deschamps may look to new faces, with Loic Bade, Manu Koné, and Michael Olise all in line for their first caps.  

With France's squad depth still formidable, the match provides an opportunity for emerging talents to make their mark as Les Bleus aim to continue their winning streak against ther neighbours.  

France vs Italy Odds

France are favoured to win against Italy with odds of 3/5, reflecting their recent dominance, having won their last three encounters, who were all friendlies. Italy, whose last win in France came in 1954, at 4/1, faces a tough challenge given their recent struggles, including two scoreless performances in their last three games.  

A draw is priced at 13/5. The odds suggest a tight contest, with both teams to score at 5/6 and total goals under 2.5 slightly favoured at 4/5, aligning with France's low-scoring trend in recent matches.  

Italy will aim to rekindle their historic rivalry with France in their first competitive meeting since Euro 2008 

Betting Tips: 

France or Draw and Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/10  

Despite injury concerns, France's depth in talent gives them a significant advantage over a rebuilding Italy. With the Azzurri still struggling for quality in key positions and early in their restructuring under Luciano Spalletti, France are well-placed to take all three points at home.  

Their recent dominance at home, where they've lost just one of their previous 10 games, strengthens this prediction. 

Both Teams To Score – No @ 5/6 

Given France's trend of low-scoring matches—six of their last seven games have featured fewer than 2.5 goals—this outcome seems likely again.  

Both teams have struggled to find attacking fluency recently, and with Italy focusing on defensive stability, this Nations League opener could be a tight, cautious affair. 

Daniele Fisichella primarily covers Serie A for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out all of his Football Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Football writers...