France vs Croatia Prediction: Les Bleus to overturn two-goal deficit

The second leg of France's Nations League quarter-final against Croatia takes place on Sunday night (19:45, live on YouTube).

Les Bleus suffered a shock 2-0 defeat in the first leg despite Kylian Mbappe's return to the squad, and they will be firmly up against it at Stade de France. Read on for my France vs Croatia prediction, as well as the latest team news and match odds.

Football Odds

Team News

Didier Deschamps could be tempted to make changes to his starting XI after Thursday night's defeat.

No doubt Mbappe will retain his place in attack alongside Ousmane Dembele, but the likes of Eduardo Camavinga and Michael Olise, who were substitutes in the first leg, may be handed starting berths.

Marcus Thuram remains absent with an ankle injury, while Theo Hernandez could replace Lucas Digne at left-back.

As for Croatia, much of their starting XI could remain the same with the likes of Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic making up the engine room, while Ivan Perisic and Andrej Kramaric occupy the flanks.

Zlatko Dalic may give Petar Sucic the nod after the midfielder returned from suspension in the first leg but was limited to an appearance off the bench.

France vs Croatia Odds

France are 4/9 to win inside 90 minutes, giving them an implied win probability of 69.2%, while the draw can be backed at 18/5 and a Croatia victory is currently priced up at 11/2.

After their brilliant performance in the first leg, the visitors are odds-on favourites to win the tie at 4/9, and France are 13/8.

France to win the tie @ 13/8

France will have a mountain to climb on Sunday but I do think 13/8 is a cracking price to back Les Bleus to win the tie.

The attacking talent that France have at their disposal, boosted by the return of Mbappe after a six-month absence, means that this tie is far from over in my opinion, and I'm expecting Deschamps to make some tactical tweaks ahead of Sunday's crunch tie.

Despite the first-leg defeat, France still had 16 shots in comparison to Croatia's eight, suggesting that Sunday's visitors were simply more clinical in front of goal.

Croatia have failed to win any of their three away games in this season’s Nations League, suffering defeats in Portugal and Scotland either side of a thrilling 3-3 draw with Poland.

France, meanwhile, have twice beaten Belgium and ran out 3-1 winners away at Italy, so they'll be confident in their ability to turn this tie around on Sunday.

Over 2.5 goals @ 8/11

Following on from my first tip, France simply have to go for it here, and if their attack clicks early doors, there could be plenty of goalmouth action.

As demonstrated by the 16 shots Deschamps' side had in Split, they created more than enough chances to earn at least a draw, and I find it unlikely that they'll be that wasteful this time around.

Five of France’s last eight internationals have featured over 2.5 goals, while Croatia have seen both teams score in six of their last nine contests, suggesting that the carry an attacking threat themselves.

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