Football Bet of the Day: Back card-happy Lyanco for another booking in Brazil

Wednesday's Football Bet of the Day comes from the MRV Arena in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, where Atletico Mineiro host fellow Serie A strugglers Sport Recife.

At 8/5, I've picked out a former Southampton defender, who has been shown 10 yellow cards and two reds in 16 league appearances this season, in the Player to Receive a Card market...

For some context, Sport Recife are bottom of the 20-team Serie A table, seven points off 19th-placed Juventude and 13 behind Atletico Mineiro (15th), but have claimed back-to-back draws, the latest a 1-1 stalemate at title-chasers Cruzeiro on Monday, while Galo followed up a 0-0 at home to Juventude with a 3-0 defeat at Fluminense on Sunday.

It's been a season of struggle for both sides, but while Sport Recife probably expected a difficult campaign, given they were one of the four promoted clubs, Atletico, housing the talents of Hulk, Gustavo Scarpa and more, won't have countenanced such a turbulent year after finishing as runners-up in the Copa Libertadores and Copa do Brasil in 2024.

Atletico have encountered disciplinary problems, accruing a joint-league-high five red cards over their first 25 Serie A games this season, averaging one every five matches.

Atletico Mineiro vs Sport Recife Odds

Former Sao Paulo, Torino and Southampton defender Lyanco has been responsible for 40% (two) of Atletico's dismissals, receiving his marching orders in a goalless draw with Sao Paulo on April 6 and a 1-0 win at Ceara on June 1. Both reds were brought about after two bookable offences, with the Brazilian earning yellows in six other outings to bring his season card tally in Serie A to 12 (10 yellows, two reds) in 16 appearances (all starts).

Lyanco's card numbers are of little surprise when you see that he is averaging 1.8 fouls per game, the same as last year when he received eight yellows and one red in 13 appearances (10 starts).

The 28-year-old has been booked nine times outside of Serie A this calendar year, too. He was cautioned three times in nine Mineiro contests, three times in six Copa do Brasil matches, and three times in 10 Copa Sudamericana outings, bringing his 2025 total to 19 yellows and two reds in 41 appearances, which means he averages a card every 1.95 games.

Lyanco served his most recent suspension against Fluminense, having picked up his 10th league yellow of the campaign in the 0-0 draw with Juventude three days prior. He should be restored to Jorge Sampaoli's starting XI against Sport Recife on Wednesday, with 19-year-old Chilean Ivan Roman, who has begun Atletico's last two games as the right-sided defender of a back three, now banned himself.

Interestingly, a right-sided player on the opposition has been booked in Sport Recife's last three matches. In their 1-0 defeat at Fortaleza on September 27, right-back Eros Mancuso, who committed three fouls in total, was shown a yellow in the 19th minute for an unfair challenge on left-winger Leo Pereira, who was upended four times and averages 1.6 fouls won per game in this season's Serie A, despite seven of his 15 appearances coming from the bench.

Chrystian Barletta started on the left instead of Leo Pereira in the 2-2 draw with Fluminense on October 1, and the 24-year-old was taken down three times, with right-sided centre-back Ignacio, who recorded three fouls, booked in the dying embers of the first half.

Then, in Monday's draw with Cruzeiro, right-winger Keny Arroyo was carded for a foul on Aderlan.

As well as Leo Pereira and Barletta, who is averaging 1.1 fouls won per game, Sport Recife have Derik Lacerda, who starts as their focal point in attack but likes to drift to the left. The 26-year-old, who opened the scoring against Cruzeiro earlier in the week, is averaging 1.5 fouls won per game.

All of the above leads me to think that, at 8/5, it could be worth backing card-merchant Lyanco to be scribbled into the referee's notebook again on Wednesday.

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