Football Bet of the Day: Gunners can keep things calm

We’ve got plenty of FA Cup action coming our way on Sunday, and Premier League leaders Arsenal are in action against League 1’s Wigan Athletic (16:30 GMT, TNT Sports 1).

I think there is good value here, if we stay away from the match result and goalscorers markets, and below you can find Sunday’s Football Bet of the Day. 

Arsenal vs Wigan Odds

Arsenal are obviously heavy favourites to win this tie at 1/20, and with Wigan at 40/1 - I can see many punters just ignoring this game from a betting perspective - and fair enough if that’s you. However, I do think there is some value to be had if we exploit the bookings market.

We know what it’s like when you are looking to boost your odds with a Bet Builder - you just chuck a couple of Wigan players in to be booked in the hope they will get carded. But I’m taking an alternative approach to this cup tie and instead backing 0-15 bookings points, or one yellow card or less, over the 90 minutes. 

I can see Arsenal scoring early in this one and taking full control of the tie with a victory by four goals or more quite likely. If that is the case, the referee, in this case Tim Robinson, is unlikely to dish out too many cards to the League 1 strugglers, and it’s difficult to see Arsenal picking up any cards themselves given they are expected to dominate possession. 

The Gunners sit second in the Premier League’s Fair Play table having picked up just 36 yellows and no reds across the entire season, with only Manchester United boasting a cleaner record.

Wigan are also fairly unique when it comes to League 1’s Fair Play table. They sit down in 17th, which isn’t good on paper - but as we dive into it, I think it gives me more belief this bet could be a winner. They have picked up a quite frankly ridiculous five red cards this season, which is by far the most in the division. 

However, they’ve gone 10 games without one and from a yellow card perspective they are pretty clean. They’ve only received 38 yellows this term - which is the best record in the league. So, the Latics are the cleanest dirtiest team we’ve ever seen. They don’t get many yellows, but they get plenty of reds. 

I think discipline will be key here and I can’t see them lunging into dangerous tackles at Arsenal. Meanwhile referee Robinson only gave two yellows in his last apperance, the 0-0 draw between Nottingham Forest and Wolves. A heavy home win should lead to a fairly tepid game in terms of cards, which could deliver us a winner at a very decent price. 

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