Football Bet of the Day: Burnley backed once again

 | Tuesday 4th March 2025, 7:40am

Tuesday 4th March 2025, 7:40am

The Champions League may take centre stage on Tuesday night, with Aston Villa and Arsenal in quarter-final action, while there is also the small matter of a Madrid derby to look forward to.

However, for our Football Bet of the Day, once again we are dipping our toe in Championship waters in search of value. 

Football Bet of the Day - Tuesday, March 3

  • Burnley to win to nil vs Cardiff @ 7/4

Football Odds

Burnley travel to Cardiff City looking to keep up the pressure on the top two, having seen Sheffield United bag an all-important win at QPR on Saturday afternoon. The Clarets were in FA Cup action, and it was a poor afternoon as local rival Preston North End secured a 3-0 victory to progress to the quarter-finals.

Scott Parker made nine changes for that game at Preston and although the defeat has frustrated a fanbase dreaming of Wembley, it may work out better for their promotion prospects. I also wouldn’t read too much into that defeat given PNE simply had more to play for against Burnley’s second team on the day. 

From a Clarets point of view, their focus is now fully on getting promoted from the Championship, and they must begin to close the five-point gap that now stands between themselves and Sheffield United. They’ve got a game in hand, so victory here would see that gap shrink to just two points, with the teams still having to face each other before the season comes to an end. 

Burnley vs Cardiff Odds

It looks to be a straight shootout now between Burnley and Sheffield United for second spot, with Sunderland falling back and Leeds United kicking on towards the title. Of course, we can’t talk about Burnley without talking about this ridiculous defensive record. They’ve only conceded nine goals in 34 matches so far, and are well on course to break the record for the fewest goals conceded in the second tier. 

James Trafford will come back in goal here, with Maxime Esteve and CJ Egan-Riley providing the protection in front of him. Although Bashir Humphreys remains out injured, Lucas Pires should do a decent job at left-back in his place and I don’t think Cardiff will pose much of a threat even on home soil.

The Bluebirds have won just seven out of 17 on home soil and although they are in decent form in the league having gone unbeaten in their last three, they haven’t played a side near the top of the division in that time. Things are quite simple for Parker at this point. No more 0-0 draws. They simply aren’t good enough for automatic promotion at this stage, and Burnley have to go to teams in the bottom half of the table and win. 

They showed good attacking intent and quality against Sheffield Wednesday in their last Championship fixture and I’d expect the likes of Marcus Edwards and Zian Flemming to cause real issues. The value lies in backing the away team to win to nil. 

Cardiff City vs Burnley - To Win to Nil Burnley

Odds correct at time of publishing.

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