Fluminense vs Alianza Lima Prediction: Visitors have fighting chance

 | Wednesday 29th May 2024, 6:30am

Wednesday 29th May 2024, 6:30am

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Reigning Copa Libertadores champions Fluminense have already qualified for the knockout round of this year's competition, but face one more match to complete an unbeaten group stage. The Tricolor host Alianza Lima at the Maracana in their sixth and final Group A game on Thursday (KO, 01:30), with the Peruvians needing to win and hoping for a draw between Colo Colo and Cerro Porteno to qualify alongside the Brazilians.

Read below for my Fluminense vs Alianza Lima prediction and all the latest team news and match odds.

Fluminense vs Alianza Lima Betting Tips

  • Both teams to score @ 1/1
  • Double chance - Draw or Alianza Lima @ 13/8

Fluminense began the defence of their crown with a 1-1 draw against Alianza Lima in Peru on April 4 - on-loan Arsenal winger Marquinhos cancelling out Kevin Serna's first-half opener for the hosts.

The Brazilians beat Colo Colo at home six days later and were then held to a goalless draw in Paraguay by Cerro Porteno on April 25. They resumed Libertadores action on May 10 with a 1-0 win over Colo Colo in Chile and then completed another double by beating Cerro Porteno 2-1 in Rio six days later.

The Tricolor now boast an unassailable six-point lead over Colo Colo and Cerro Porteno and are merely playing for pride on Thursday.

That's not the case for Alianza Lima, who need to avoid defeat just to give themselves a chance of finishing third and qualifying for the knockout round of the Copa Sudamericana.

The Peruvians can still qualify for the Libertadores round of 16 but must beat Fluminense and hope for a draw in the other game in Paraguay. That looks like a herculean task for a side that has yet to record a win in the group stage, with a 1-1 draw with Fluminense and a 1-0 defeat to Cerro Porteno followed by a hat-trick of draws (0-0 v Colo Colo, 1-1 v Cerro Porteno, 1-1 vs Colo Colo).

Team News

ACL victim Lele has been sidelined since Flu's 2-1 win over Colo Colo on April 10 and is only in the early stages of his recovery. Douglas Costa, Andre Manoel and Samuel Xavier will also be absent on Thursday through injury, but Lima could return after missing last week's 2-0 win over Sampaio Correa in the Copa do Brasil.

Syrian striker Pablo Sabbag is in line to make his first matchday squad of the calendar year for Alianza Lima after injuring himself on international duty at the 2023 AFC Asian Cup in January.

Gabriel Costa and Jiovany Ramos remain sidelined, however.

Fluminense vs Alianza Lima Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Fluminense vs Alianza Lima page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Fluminense are 4/9 to go three for three at home in the group stage, giving them an implied win probability of 69.2%, while Alianza Lima can be backed at 11/2 (15.4%) to win their first away game in this year's competition.

The draw is available at 3/1, both teams to score at 1/1, and over 2.5 goals at 5/6.

Both teams to score @ 1/1

Keeping out Fluminense at the Maracana is a sizeable task and something that only Vasco de Gama and Flamengo have achieved in the 11 games the Tricolor have played there in 2024.

Flu have scored two in each of their two home group games so far and will expect to net at least one in front of their fans on Thursday.

Alianza Lima need to be scoring themselves, however, as a draw would only secure them third if there is a winner between Colo Colo and Cerro Porteno in the other match.

The Peruvians are yet to score away from home in this year's competition, but with Flu way out in front as group leaders, they will hope that there is a reduction in motivation on the home side.

Alianza Lima scored inside the first 35 minutes of their reverse fixture with Fluminense and registered more than triple (1.16) the xG of that recorded by their opponents (0.36) in that game, so they should take some confidence from that, too.

Both teams to score - Yes in Fluminense vs Alianza Lima at 1-1

Double chance - Draw or Alianza Lima @ 13/8

This is a bit of a long shot considering Flu's home record - they've only lost four times at the Maracana since September 2023 and have won both Libertadores group games there this year.

However, Flu do not need to win on Thursday, while Alianza Lima need to achieve a positive result, whether it be a draw or a win.

That's easier said than done considering they are yet to score away from home in the competition, but a draw against Colo Colo in Chile should offer some hope.

They also held Flu to a draw in their meeting last month, while a positive way of reading the Tricolor's home form is that they have only won four of their last eight, or five of their last 10, at the Maracana.

Given what's at stake for Alianza Lima on Thursday, and the fact that Fluminense play again on Saturday against Juventude - and may name a weakened side in the Libertadores - the double chance on the Peruvians may be worth a punt at 13/8.

Alianza Lima or draw vs Fluminense at 13-8

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Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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