Finland vs England Prediction: Watkins has a point to prove

After a poor performance on Thursday night in their 2-1 defeat to Greece in the Uefa Nations League, England head to Finland on Sunday (17:00, ITV1) to look for an instant response. Interim boss Lee Carsley took a gamble with his selections in that match and they didn't pay off, so changes are expected here.

The hosts were beaten 2-1 themselves last time out at the hands of the Republic of Ireland. Read on for my Finland vs England prediction, accompanied by the latest match odds and team news.

Finland vs England Odds

Finland are 11/1 to win this contest, which gives them an implied probability of 8.3%. England are priced at 1/4 to take the victory, giving them a theoretical chance of 80%. The draw is available at 5/1 (16.7%).

Both teams to score is on offer at 6/5 and over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/6.

England's Jude Bellingham was on the scoresheet against Greece and he is 2/1 to score anytime on Sunday evening. Finland forward Joel Pohjanpalo was on the scoresheet against Ireland on Thursday and he is 9/2 to find the back of the net at any stage during this contest.

Football Odds

Team News 

Finland came through unscathed against Ireland which will give them a lift ahead of their clash with the Three Lions. The only absentee they have had to deal with is Kaan Kairinen, who withdrew from the squad before the meeting with Ireland.

There was some surprise on Thursday when boss Markku Kanerva opted to start Pohjanpalo up front over all-time top score Teemu Pukki, but with the former getting on the scoresheet, his decision was somewhat vindicated.

Pukku could come into contention for this one, however, as Finland are in desperate need of putting points on the board.

For England, Carsley is expected to make a few changes to his side for this one. For starters, he is expected to go with an actual centre-forward this time after Bellingham played a false nine role against Greece.

Captain Harry Kane remains doubtful to feature so the England boss must choose between Ollie Watkins and Dominic Solanke to lead the line, although it would appear the former is more likely to get the nod.

Bukayo Saka limped off in the second half against Greece with what appeared to be a hamstring injury, so it is very unlikely we will see him feature in this match. This could see Cole Palmer occupy the right flank if the team's shape is going to be altered like expected.

The Chelsea man could be competing with his club-mate Noni Madueke for that spot as Carsley knows them both well from working with them in the Under-21s.

Jack Grealish missed out against Greece with a knock so he will be assessed ahead of Sunday. If Carsley decides to rotate, the likes of Conor Gallagher. Marc Guehi and Kyle Walker could profit.

England to win to nil @ 5/6

There is no doubt that England need a convincing performance here after Thursday went horrifically wrong. Carsley decided to go with a lot more flair for the sake of defensive stability, leaving Declan Rice exposed at the base of midfield.

It's clear the Three Lions cannot function properly without a couple of bodies in the engine room, so we are likely going to see a more traditional lineup in Helsinki. England have a great opportunity to bounce back here as the hosts have lost every game they have played in the Nations League so far.

With the same sort of structure that Carsley went with in his first two games in charge last month, I can't see how England cannot get back to winning ways here. The two September victories against their hosts and Ireland saw them win without conceding a goal - and they were both 2-0 victories.

I believe we can see England register a similar result again, particularly as Finland currently have a lot less confidence than they do. There is no denying the quality in abundance the Three Lions have in their squad, but as we found out against Greece, trying to cram them all in the starting lineup doesn't necessarily work.

This would still leave Carsley with valuable assets to call upon from the bench, which is always vital in international football. Sometimes you have very talented players who are also more effective when coming on from the bench compared to if they were a starter.

England are expected to take a step back on Sunday but I think we will see a better performance for it. I am going for them to win this match to nil.

Ollie Watkins anytime goalscorer @ 1/1

I am sure this man would not have been pleased when he found out the team to face Greece on Thursday. When front man Kane is in the picture it has always been tough for the other strikers in the squad to get much game time, so when Kane was ruled out and Watkins didn't get the nod, he must've been very unhappy.

England cannot seem to function well without a recognised forward on the pitch, so Watkins is likely to come into the side on Sunday in Helsinki. The Aston Villa man has started the Premier League season well with four goals in seven appearances.

His last England goal came in the Euro 2024 semi-final against the Netherlands to send the Three Lions to the tournament showpiece against Spain. Watkins will look to channel his frustration at not starting on Thursday by delivering a memorable performance against Finland to show his manager that he needs a striker on the pitch.

I think he is worth backing to get on the scoresheet here as he is facing a fragile back line, and he also has a point to prove.

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