Turkey vs Romania Prediction: Crescent-Stars to crush Tricolours’ World Cup hopes

Turkey, looking to qualify for their first Fifa World Cup finals since a shock third-place finish at the 2002 tournament in South Korea and Japan, take on Romania, who haven't qualified since France 1998, in a play-off semi-final at Tupras Stadium in Istanbul on Thursday (17:00 GMT, Prime Video). The winner of this one-legged tie will face either Slovakia or Kosovo in the final next Tuesday.

Read below for my Turkey vs Romania predictions, supported by the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir, defender Abdulkerim Bardakci and forward Baris Alper Yilmaz are all injury doubts for Turkey, while key centre-back Merih Demiral has missed Al-Ahli's last three games due to a fitness issue, so his status isn't totally clear, either.

However, if all four are fit, expect them to be named in Vincenzo Montella's starting XI on Thursday.

Football Odds

As for Romania, two goalkeepers, first-choice Ionut Radu and back-up Mihai Popa, have been forced to withdraw from Mircea Lucescu's squad due to injury. As a result, there will be a debutant in goal for the Tricolours on Thursday, with all three of their shot-stoppers, Marian Aioani, Catalin Cabuz and Laurentiu Popescu, uncapped at senior level.

Tottenham Hotspur defender Radu Dragusin is back involved after recovering from a long-term injury at the end of last year.

Turkey vs Romania Odds

Turkey, who have won three of their last four competitive home games, are 4/11 to win in regulation time on Thursday, implying a 73.3% probability of success, while Romania are 15/2, or an 11.8% chance, to triumph in 90 minutes.

The draw, which would send the tie to extra time, is priced at 4/1, while Turkey and Romania are 1/7 and 4/1, respectively, in the To Win Tie market.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Turkey & Yes @ 2/1

Turkey produced an impressive qualification campaign, beating both Georgia and Bulgaria home and away, as well as holding reigning European champions Spain to a 2-2 draw in Seville. The only major blot on their copybook was a 6-0 loss to the Group E winners in Konya.

That defeat last September was Turkey's first on home soil since March 2023, when they fell to a 2-0 defeat to Croatia in Bursa, and they've not been beaten in Istanbul since a 4-0 friendly reverse to Brazil in November 2014; their last competitive loss there was to the Czech Republic (1-2) a month earlier.

Turkey are major favourites to triumph on Thursday, with goals flowing through their side, as highlighted by the 17 they scored in six qualifiers, including six in their last two on Turkish soil.

However, their defence is far from solid, as evidenced by the fact that they kept just a single clean sheet in qualifying, in a 2-0 victory over Bulgaria.

Today's Football Fixtures

Romania, meanwhile, only finished third in Group H, having to rely on their Uefa Nations League ranking to progress to the play-offs, but they picked up 13 points from eight games, albeit nearly half (six) were claimed against international minnows San Marino.

Nineteen goals was a solid return, though, and only Bosnia-Herzegovina (0-1), in their opening qualifier, managed to stop them from scoring. Romania scored in all four away games, beating San Marino (5-1), drawing to Cyprus (2-2), and losing to both Austria (2-1) and Bosnia-Herzegovina (3-1).

Turkey are nursing some injuries in defence, which may offer the visitors some encouragement on Thursday, but with Romania missing their main man in goal, Radu, and having to stick an uncapped shot-stopper in net, you fear for their chances in Istanbul.

I fancy a few goals here, but ultimately, it should be Turkey who get the job done in regulation time.

Anytime Goalscorer - Kenan Yildiz (TUR) @ 11/8

Juventus and Turkey star Kenan Yildiz was eight games without a goal heading into his club side's Serie A game against Pisa on March 7, but he grabbed the Old Lady's third in a 4-0 victory at Allianz Stadium, and two weeks later, he opened the scoring in a 1-1 draw with Sassuolo to make it two goals from his last three appearances.

The 20-year-old has now scored 11 times for Juventus this season, 10 in Serie A and one in the Uefa Champions League, while three of his five goals for Turkey have came in their World Cup qualification campaign.

Yildiz bagged a brace in last October's 6-1 thrashing of Bulgaria in Sofia on October 11, and three days later, in Kocaeli, he opened the scoring in a 4-1 win against Georgia.

He has the talent to break down even the most stubborn of defences, and I believe this is a game where he will step up again for his country.

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