Slovenia vs Switzerland Prediction: Karnicnik to land another 16/5 winner in Ljubljana

After winning their first three Uefa World Cup qualifiers, Switzerland are well on course to qualify for next year's finals in the USA, Canada and Mexico. Next up for Nati is a Monday (19:45 BST) trip to Stadion Stozice in Ljubljana to take on Slovenia, who have picked up just two points so far in Group B and trail the leaders by seven points, and second-place Kosovo by two.

Below are my Slovenia vs Switzerland predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Slovenia head coach Matjaz Kek may ponder changes to his starting XI after last Friday's goalless draw with Kosovo.

Jan Oblak (Atletico Madrid), Jaka Bijol (Leeds United) and Benjamin Sesko (Manchester United) should all keep their starting spots, but the trio could be joined in the lineup by Tomi Horvat (Sturm Graz), Zan Vipotnik (Swansea City) and Erik Janza (Gornik Zabrze), who all appeared as second-half substitutes in Pristina.

World Cup Odds

On the other hand, Switzerland boss Murat Yakin could elect to name the same side that began last week's 2-0 victory over Switzerland.

Granit Xhaka (Sunderland) opened the scoring from the penalty spot in Solna, with Johan Manzambi (Freiburg) coming off the bench to net Nati's second and final goal in the fourth minute of second-half stoppage time.

Should Yakin decide to freshen things up, Manzambi, Djibril Sow (Sevilla) and Luca Jaquez (VfB Stuttgart) are likely to be at the forefront of his thinking.

Slovenia vs Switzerland Odds

Slovenia, winless in Group B, are 9/2 - or an 18.2% chance - to claim all three points in Ljubljana on Monday. Meanwhile Switzerland, who won September's reverse fixture 3-0 at St. Jakob Park, are 4/6 (60%) to maintain their 100% record.

The draw is priced at 13/5, both teams to score at 11/10, and over 3.5 total goals at 3/1.

Betfred are offering several Price Boosts on this fixture, including Sesko To Score The First Goal at 8/1 (was 7/1).

Bet Builder - Dan Ndoye (SWI) & Benjamin Sesko (SLO) Total Shots on Target Each - 1+ @ 13/8

Swiss winger Dan Ndoye (Nottingham Forest) rounded off the scoring in last month's reverse fixture, netting Nati's third goal in the 38th minute.

The 24-year-old, whose four international strikes have all come this calendar year, has threatened in Switzerland's other two matches, too, registering a shot on target in both the 4-0 victory over Kosovo last month and last Friday's win in Sweden.

Ndoye struck eight times in Serie A last season for Bologna, averaging 0.7 shots on target per game, before completing a summer switch to Nottingham Forest. He's established himself as a key player for his country, and is likely to play the majority, if not all, of Monday's match, so he looks like a good bet to at least force Oblak into a save in the Slovenian capital.

Today's Football Fixtures

I'm also backing Man United striker Sesko to record a shot on target, as he has done in his last two caps.

The 22-year-old tested Switzerland's Gregor Kobel (Borussia Dortmund) with his only effort against Yakin's side last month, and forced Kosovo's Arijanet Muric (Sassuolo, on loan from Burnley) into one save from one of his five attempts at goal last Friday.

It's been a slow start to life at Old Trafford for Sesko, who joined in a big-money deal from RB Leipzig during the summer but has only scored twice so far.

However, he's not been shy to shoot, averaging 1.7 shots per game in the Premier League, despite three of his seven appearances arriving from the bench.

Impressively, Sesko is averaging 0.9 shots on target per game, scoring twice and initiating three saves across his last two league outings, and he will be someone who his country will hope rises to the pressure on Monday.

Player to Receive a Card - Zan Karnicnik (SLO) @ 16/5

This was a winning selection - at the same price - in last month's Switzerland-Slovenia preview, with Slovenia right-back Zan Karnicnik (NK Celje) booked in the 66th minute for taking down Ndoye, who won four fouls that night in Basel.

We may not see this exact match-up again on Monday, though, with Karnicnik utilised as a left wing-back against Kosovo last Friday and Ndoye keeping his position on the left against Sweden.

Still it's a possibility, and even if Karnicnik starts as a left-back in a four-man back line, as predicted, his direct opponent could be Ruben Vargas (Sevilla), who has been fouled, on average, 0.9 times per game in La Liga this season (seven appearances, six starts), and has been upended once in each of Switzerland's World Cup qualifiers.

Of course, the ideal scenario is that Karnicnik is forced to mark Ndoye, who won 3.4 fouls per game, on average, in the 2024/25 Italian top flight, and attracted Sweden's Gustaf Lagerbielke (Braga) into a yellow-card challenge last Friday.

Other options to consider in this market are Orlando City's David Brekalo (16/5) and Legia Warsaw's Petar Stojanovic (8/5), who operated as a right-sided centre-back and right wing-back, respectively, in Slovenia's stalemate in Kosovo.

Offers

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