Paraguay vs Venezuela Prediction: La Vinotinto to grab first away victory of the campaign

Just a single point separates Paraguay and Venezuela in the 2026 World Cup qualification campaign so far, setting up an intriguing clash at Estadio Defensores del Chaco on Wednesday (00:00).

Read below for my Paraguay vs Venezuela prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this contest in the Paraguayan capital of Asuncion.

Team News

Paraguay pair Diego Gomez and Junior Alonso, of Inter Miami and Atletico Mineiro respectively, were missing from last Thursday's goalless draw with Ecuador in Quito as they each served a ban for yellow card accumulation. Gomez and Alonso are free to action return on Wednesday and both look likely to make instant returns to the starting XI, particularly the Inter Miami man who struck the only goal of the game last month as Los Guaranies beat Brazil 1-0 in Asuncion.

Andres Cubas and Agustin Sandez could be the unfortunate ones to be dropped from Gustavo Alfaro's lineup, which is likely to feature Brighton & Hove Albion playmaker Julio Enciso and Newcastle United winger Miguel Almiron in attack, and former West Ham United centre-back Fabian Balbuena - now of Dynamo Moscow - in a three-man backline.

Football Odds

Venezuela head coach Fernando Batista will be without influential Corinthians midfielder Jose Martinez on Wednesday as the 30-year-old serves a suspension for picking up his fourth yellow card of the campaign in last Thursday's 1-1 draw with Argentina. Kaizer Chiefs star Edson Castillo replaced Martinez in the dying stages of that stalemate in Maturin and is in line to partner Santos' Tomas Rincon and Girona's Yangel Herrera in midfield.

Former West Bromwich Albion, Newcastle United and Everton striker Salomon Rondon was Venezuela's hero against the reigning World Cup and Copa America champions as it was his second-half equaliser that grabbed a point for the hosts, and the Pachuca centre-forward is set to be flanked in attack again by Botafogo's Jefferson Savarino and Gremio's Yeferson Soteldo.

At the back, Alexander Gonzalez (Emelec), Yordan Osorio (Parma), Nahuel Ferraresi (Sao Paulo) and Jon Aramburu (Real Sociedad) are likely to continue in front of goalkeeper Rafael Romo (Universidad Catolica).

Paraguay vs Venezuela Odds

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Paraguay are 19/20 to triumph in back-to-back home games, giving Wednesday's hosts an implied win probability of 51.3%, while Venezuela are 3/1 (25%) to secure an away victory at the fifth attempt in this qualification campaign.

The draw is priced at 15/8, both teams to score at 11/8, and over 2.5 total goals at 7/4.

Paraguay striker Isidro Pitta, playing his football in Brazil with Serie A strugglers Cuiaba, is favourite to score anytime at 9/4, followed by teammates Alfio Ovideo (23/10), Alex Arce (13/5) and Angel Romero (13/5). Arce is the only one of that quartet who started his country's stalemate last week, so perhaps Almiron (16/5) and Enciso (7/2) are more likely scorers in Asuncion, where Rondon (3/1) is shortest shortest-priced for Venezuela.

Double Chance - Draw or Venezuela @ 4/5

Paraguay are favourites heading into this one, and there are statistics to support their tag. La Albirroja have lost just one of their four home qualifiers so far and that was a 1-0 defeat to Colombia, who were unbeaten in over two years and had won 18 of their previous 23 games. Los Cafeteros' strike in Asuncion, meanwhile, came from the penalty spot through Rafael Borre, and that remains the only goal they have conceded at home in this qualification campaign.

Wednesday's hosts have kept three clean sheets in the Paraguayan capital, kicking off with a goalless draw with Peru before winning 1-0 against both Bolivia and Brazil. The victory over the Selecao last month was particularly impressive, as were their 0-0 draws in Uruguay and Ecuador since the start of September.

However, their goalless draw at home to Peru was a poor one on reflection as the visitors were down to 10 men before half-time, and Paraguay were unable to take advantage of a golden opportunity to collect all three points.

It also took La Albirroja until the 69th minute to find a goal against Bolivia, who hadn't won a World Cup qualifier away from home since 1998.

Meanwhile, Venezuela are yet to win away in this qualifying campaign but have only lost two of the four games on their travels and, arguably, have gotten three of the toughest assignments out of the way already.

La Vinotinto were edged out 1-0 by Colombia in Barranquilla in their first away outing last September, and considering Los Cafeteros were in the middle of a 31-match unbeaten run (in regulation time) that only came to an end earlier this month, there was no disgrace in that defeat.

A 1-1 draw with Brazil in Cuiaba followed a month later, denying the Selecao the chance to make it 16 straight home wins in World Cup qualifying. Arguably their most disappointing away result came in Lima last November when they had to come from behind to settle for a point in a 1-1 draw with Peru, but La Blanquirroja have since drawn 1-1 with Colombia there and beaten Uruguay 1-0, so perhaps a point for Venezuela wasn't too bad after all.

Venezuela's second away defeat came in El Alto last month when Bolivia trounced them 4-0. However, that contest was played 4,150m above sea level, and La Vinotinto were the first visitors since La Verde's venue switch (Colombia have since been beaten 1-0 there, despite having a man advantage for the majority of the match).

So, I say all that to say this: Venezuela have picked up a couple of creditable draws already in Brazil and Peru, while they certainly weren't disgraced in a narrow defeat away to Colombia. Of course, they took a battering in Bolivia, but playing there represents a unique challenge that they won't find elsewhere.

Paraguay have definitely improved during qualifying as they have picked up as many points (five) in their last three games as they did in their first six; however, they've only won twice in nine matches, and they were narrow 1-0 wins.

Venezuela have only lost twice so far, away to Colombia and Bolivia, and a trip to Paraguay shouldn't be as difficult for them to navigate, so I'm happy to take just under EVS on a draw or Venezuela victory.

Correct Score - Venezuela 0-1 @ 7/1

I'm taking things further with my second selection and backing Venezuela to come out on top by a 0-1 scoreline in the Paraguayan capital.

I don't envisage many goals at all; in fact, in a game of fine margins, I think there will be a maximum of one, and a goalless draw wouldn't surprise me, given Paraguay have experienced four 0-0's already in qualifying (one in Asuncion, three on their travels).

There have been just three goals scored across their first four home games, and no more than one in a single match. La Albirroja have beaten Brazil and Bolivia 1-0 in Asuncion but have also been held to a goalless draw by a Peruvian side that had 10 men for more than half of the contest, and been beaten 1-0 by Colombia.

Paraguay overcame Venezuela in their last meeting in the capital in 2021 but lost their two previous home qualifiers to La Vinotinto, with Rondon scoring both goals in a 0-2 victory in the first of those in September 2012, the other being a 0-1 win in October 2017 courtesy of an effort from Herrera.

Venezuela have kept four clean sheets in qualifying while four of the last five head-to-heads have finished 1-0, two in favour of Wednesday's hosts and two for the visitors.

Either side could edge this but Venezuela have been a much more consistent team for the last two years and come into this game on the back of a draw with Lionel Messi's Argentina, so that's as great a confidence boost as any as they look to win their three points away from home.

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