Nigeria vs DR Congo Prediction: Can Super Eagles break down tough defence?

After the drama of the semi-finals, we now know that either Nigeria and DR Congo will compete in the final of the CAF play-offs for a place in the Intercontinental play-offs. 

This crucial encounter takes place at 17:00 on Sunday in Morocco and below you can find my Nigeria vs DR Congo predictions.

Team News

Nigeria needed extra-time to beat Gabon 4-1 in their semi-final, with Moses Simon and Chidera Ejuke making a big impact from the bench. After a pulsating 120 minutes, it is tough to know how many changes Eric Chelle will make to his XI, but we can be assured that Victor Osimhen will lead the line, with Akor Adams his likely partner. 

Alex Iwobi should start in midfield with Wilfred Ndidi, Ademola Lookman and Samuel Chukwueze are looking to provide width and Calvin Bassey will marshal the defence. 

Football Odds

DR Congo only had to play 90 minutes after Chancel Mbemba’s late winner and he will start at centre-back with Axel Tuanzebe. Aaron Wan-Bissaka will start at right-back and Joris Kayembe Ditu should feature on the left side of the defence as they target another clean sheet. 

Cedric Bakumba will be looking for a goal as he leads the line, with Watford’s Edo Kayembe an option off the bench for the midfield.

Today's Football Fixtures

Nigeria vs DR Congo Odds

Nigeria are 5/6 favourites to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 55% in 90 minutes. A draw is 9/4 and DR Congo are 10/3 to find another win in 90 minutes. 

BTTS is priced at 11/10, over 2.5 goals is 11/8 and Nigeria are 6/4 to be leading at half-time. 

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/15

Given Nigeria played a full 120 minutes on Thursday, they are unlikely to be at their sharpest here. I think under 2.5 goals is the sensible first selection given that it came in after 90 minutes of both semi-finals, and DR Congo possess a remarkably good defence. 

It’s packed with big names and they only conceded six goals in 10 games in the group stage. Meanwhile, Nigeria conceded eight goals in 10, so you can see just how strong defensively both teams are. With so much riding on this final, I can only see it being a tight and tense encounter.

DR Congo to win to nil @ 11/2

I don’t know who is going to win this game - but I do think it will be incredibly close, potentially decided by one goal. If that is the case, the value on DR Congo to win to nil is massive. Nigeria come into the game upon a background of uncertainty, having boycotted training on Tuesday, two days before their win over Gabon.

The protest relates to unpaid allowances and match bonuses, but that doesn’t feel like it provides the best preparation for this final. They’ve got quality players and are rightfully favourites, but DR Congo can keep clean sheets and nick a goal or two. I’m going to back the underdog to cause a shock in Morocco. 

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