Luxembourg vs Germany Prediction: Kimmich to tame Red Lions again

Luxembourg are pointless after four Fifa World Cup qualifiers, and their fortunes aren’t likely to improve on Friday (19:45 GMT, Amazon Prime Video) when they host a Germany side gunning for top spot in Group A.

Below are my Luxembourg vs Germany predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this game at Stade de Luxembourg.

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Team News

Luxembourg's squad includes Benfica midfielder Leandro Barreiro and St. Pauli attacker Danel Sinani, who are both expected to play leading roles for the landlocked nation on Friday.

Football Odds

Four German players - Robert Andrich (Bayer Leverkusen), Angelo Stiller (VfB Stuttgart), Robin Koch (Eintracht Frankfurt) and Maximilian Beier (Borussia Dortmund) - have been dropped from the October squad, but there are recalls for Malick Thiaw (Newcastle United), Kevin Schade (Brentford) and Leroy Sane (Galatasaray).

Said El Mala (FC Koln) has received a first call-up after netting four times in this season’s Bundesliga, and he has been joined by another uncapped player, Assan Ouedraogo (RB Leipzig), who replaces the stricken Nadiem Amiri (Mainz 05).

The likes of Jamal Musiala (Bayern Munich), Antonio Rudiger (Real Madrid) and Marc-Andre ter Stegen (FC Barcelona) remain sidelined due to injury, while Nico Schlotterbeck (Borussia Dortmund) is in the camp but is a major doubt for Friday's game with a foot problem sustained during his club side's 1-1 draw with Hamburger SV on Saturday.

If Schlotterbeck is unavailable, his Dortmund teammate Waldemar Anton is expected to start alongside Bayern’s Jonathan Tah in central defence, with Thiaw, who last represented Germany over two years ago, another alternative.

Luxembourg vs Germany Odds

Luxembourg, who have lost all five previous games against Germany, are, unsurprisingly, huge underdogs (33/1) to win on Friday, with their odds implying a 2.9% probability of success. The visitors are 1/12 (92.3%) to take a big step towards qualification by collecting all three points, while the draw is priced at 11/1.

Anytime Goalscorer - Joshua Kimmich (GER) @ 16/5

Bayern Munich midfielder Joshua Kimmich is by no means a prolific goalscorer, but he has scored three times for club and country since the start of last month.

The first two of those goals came in October’s reverse fixture with Luxembourg, as he scored his first from the penalty spot before later stealing in at the back post following a corner kick.

Today's Football Fixtures

The 30-year-old recorded five shots in total that night, and four appearances later, for Bayern in a 3-0 win at Borussia Monchengladbach, he was on target again, opening the scoring for his side at Borussia-Park.

Kimmich is obviously not the most likely candidate to score on Friday, but he appears to be Germany’s penalty kick taker at present, and considering Luxembourg have conceded a penalty in half (two) of their first four qualifiers, that could be a route to goal for him at the Stade de Luxembourg.

Handicap -2 - Germany -2 @ 7/10

Germany, level on nine points with Slovakia in Group, boast a +5 goal difference compared to their rival’s +3.

Julian Nagelsmann’s side lost their opening match away to Slovakia (2-0) but have recovered well, beating Northern Ireland (3-1) and Luxembourg (4-0) back-to-back at home before winning 1-0 against the former in Belfast last time out.

With Slovakia to visit the Red Bull Arena in Leipzig next Monday, Nagelsmann will be desperate to see his team win at the Stade de Luxembourg on Friday to avoid having to pick up all three points on matchday six.

Given Luxembourg have lost all four games so far, shipping 10 goals and scoring just once, the Germans should be confident of a comfortable win this week.

Germany won 4-0 in last month’s reverse fixture with Luxembourg, restricting the Red Lions to a single shot, although the visitors were handicapped by the 20th-minute dismissal of Dirk Carlson.

Still, Luxembourg have failed to win any of their last seven internationals (L6, D1) and have blanked in five of their last six.

If they get an early goal, I fancy Germany to record a big win here.