Brazil vs Uruguay Prediction: Back to low-scoring contests for La Celeste

After a 1-1 draw with Venezuela in Maturin last Thursday, Brazil will be happy to return to home comforts on Wednesday (00:45, Premier Sports 2) when they welcome Uruguay to the Estadio Fonte Nova in Salvador. La Celeste should be in a more positive mood than they were this time last week when they were on a four-game winless run heading into a match with Colombia in Montevideo on Saturday, which they dramatically won 3-2.

Below is my Brazil vs Uruguay prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this 2026 Fifa World Cup qualifier.

Team News

AS Monaco right-back Vanderson is suspended for Wednesday's qualifier due to an accumulation of yellow cards. His spot in the Brazil starting XI is likely to be taken by Juventus' Danilo, who will collect his 65th senior national team cap if selected.

West Ham United playmaker Lucas Paqueta, Botafogo forward Luiz Henrique and Arsenal winger Gabriel Martinelli are all options if head coach Dorival Jr. wishes to make any more alterations to his side.

Football Odds

Uruguay boss Marcelo Bielsa could reward Manchester United midfielder Manuel Ugarte with a start in Salvador after the 23-year-old came off the bench to score a last-gasp winner in their weekend win over Colombia.

Tottenham Hotspur's Rodrigo Bentancur could drop out for his Premier League rival, or the pair could play together in the middle of midfield, allowing Real Madrid star Federico Valverde to operate further forward, in which case the spots of Facundo Pellistri (Panathinaikos) and Maximiliano Araujo (Sporting) are under threat.

Club America's Rodrigo Aguirre scored on his national team debut on Saturday and will hope that goal is enough to earn him back-to-back starts.

Brazil vs Uruguay Odds

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Brazil are 3/5 to exact revenge for their 2-0 defeat in the reverse fixture and their penalty shoot-out loss to La Celeste in the 2024 Copa America quarter-finals earlier this year. Those odds give Wednesday's hosts an implied win probability of 62.5%, while Uruguay are 9/2, or an 18.2% chance, to do the double over their opponents.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 5/4, and over 2.5 total goals at 11/8.

Botafogo striker Igor Jesus (15/8), Real Madrid winger Vinicius Jr. (21/10), and Barcelona ace Raphinha (9/4), who scored Brazil's only goal of the game against Venezuela last week, lead the anytime goalscorer market, with Liverpool centre-forward Darwin Nunez (100/30) first up for the visitors.

Player to Receive a Card - Danilo (BRA) @ 3/1

At 33, Danilo is one of the older statesmen in the Brazilian side, and his experience could be vital for the Seleaco in Salvador.

He's not a first-choice pick in his position for either club or country these days, evidenced by just three of his eight Serie A appearances for Juventus this season coming as a starter and Vanderson getting the nod ahead of him in Brazil's last two qualifiers.

However, with the Monaco man banned for Wednesday's contest, Dorival Jr. is set to turn to Danilo to hold down the right-hand side behind Manchester City winger Savinho, who isn't famed for his defensive nous.

Danilo could find things tough up against Uruguay winger Araujo, though, with the 24-year-old proving to be problematic for his markers so far this campaign.

Araujo has been fouled an average of 2.2 times per game and was taken down five times in La Celeste's 2-0 victory over Brazil in the reverse fixture 13 months ago. Yan Couto (Girona, now at Borussia Dortmund) was the Selecao right-back for that contest and although he avoided a booking, the 22-year-old did commit two fouls, while Manchester United midfielder Casemiro, playing at the base of midfield, gave away four free-kicks and was shown a yellow card in the 71st minute. Fellow midfielder Bruno Guimaraes (Newcastle United) also made two fouls in Montevideo, highlighting the troubles that Araujo and his fellow attackers caused their opponents.

Araujo was also fouled three times in Uruguay's most recent meeting with Brazil at the 2024 Copa America in July, although Danilo, who played the entirety of the game, didn't commit a foul himself.

The Juventus full-back has been booked once already this campaign, though - in his last national team appearance against Chile on October 11, when Brazil ran out 2-1 winners in Santiago.

Danilo has also been cautioned once in the Italian top flight for the Old Lady this term while he was sent off for two bookable offences in Juve's 1-0 defeat to Stuttgart in the Uefa Champions League on October 22.

For club and country, he has received four yellows and one red in his last four starts, so at 3/1, up against a tricky winger in Araujo, I'm happy to back Danilo for a card of any variety on Wednesday.

Total Goals - Under 1.5 @ 13/8

Both teams scored in both of these sides' games last week as Brazil drew 1-1 with Venezuela and Uruguay edged past Colombia 3-2. The Selecao also thrashed Peru 4-0 in Brasilia last month and squeezed past Chile 2-1 in Santiago five days before.

Despite the recent glut of goals in Brazil's qualifiers, and the five goals scored in Uruguay's victory over Los Cafeteros last week, there are reasons to believe that Wednesday's meeting in Salvador could be low-scoring.

Uruguay beat Brazil 2-0 in the reverse fixture in Montevideo but the teams played out a goalless draw at the 2024 Copa America in the USA before La Celeste won 4-2 on penalties.

Meanwhile, prior to last Saturday, Bielsa's side had played four qualifiers without scoring, drawing 0-0 with Paraguay (A), Venezuela (A) and Ecuador (H), as well as losing 1-0 to Peru in Lima.

Brazil were involved in a couple of 1-0 scorelines themselves in September, winning by that scoreline at home to Ecuador before losing by a single goal to Paraguay in Asuncion.

The five-time World Cup winners have also lost 1-0 at home to Argentina and beaten Peru 1-0 in Lima, meaning that 36.4 per cent (four) of their 11 qualifiers have finished with under 1.5 total goals.

Both Brazil and Uruguay are on course to finish in the top six and direct qualify for Fifa's showpiece tournament held in the USA, Canada and Mexico in under two years, so I don't see a need for either to go all out for the win here and leave themselves exposed at the back.

We could see a cagey contest in Salvador and as such, I'm looking to under 1.5 total goals at 13/8 with a degree of interest.

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