Bolivia vs Chile Prediction: La Verde to snap out of six-game winless streak

A six-game winless run has left Bolivia with everything to do in their quest to secure the inter-confederation play-off place in South American World Cup qualifying, with La Verde (eighth) trailing Venezuela (seventh) by four points with just three rounds of fixtures remaining. Beating the bottom-ranked team, Chile, on Tuesday (21:00), is crucial to their chances of catching La Vinotinto.

Below are my Bolivia vs Chile predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this 2026 World Cup qualifier at the Estadio Municipal de El Alto.

Team News

Midfielder Ramiro Vaca (Bolivar), who has scored twice in qualifying, misses out again due to a pending doping case under review, but his club teammate, Jose Sagredo, who was expected to be absent last time out, was an unused substitute in Bolivia's 2-0 defeat to Venezuela last Friday, so perhaps he will feature in some capacity on Tuesday.

Hector Cuellar (Always Ready) endured a difficult 45 minutes in Maturin last week, opening the scoring by putting through his own net before being hooked at half-time. The 24-year-old now looks likely to drop out of Oscar Villegas' starting XI, with Moises Villarroel (Blooming), who replaced him against Venezuela, the prime candidate to step up.

Football Odds

Once again, Bolivia will look to Miguelito (America Mineiro, on loan from Santos) as their source of inspiration. The 21-year-old forward has scored five goals in qualifying, and he's struck three of their last five on home soil.

Arturo Vidal (Colo Colo) started Chile's 1-0 defeat to Argentina last Friday but picked up a yellow card in the 38th minute and was substituted at half-time alongside club teammate Vicente Pizarro. The 38-year-old's booking in Santiago has ruled him out of the trip to El Alto, so Javier Altamirano (Club Universidad de Chile, on loan from Estudiantes), who came on for the former Juventus and Barcelona midfielder against La Albiceleste, could begin Tuesday's match.

Despite an injury-ravaged season with Udinese, Chile's all-time appearance maker and record goalscorer, Alexis Sanchez, lasted until the 87th minute last Friday, building up vital match fitness ahead of another start for his national team this week.

Bolivia vs Chile Odds

Bolivia haven't lost at home since October 13, 2023, and La Verde are heavy favourites (3/5) to claim all three points on Tuesday, implying a 62.5% probability of success, while Chile are 4/1, or a 20% chance, to win their first World Cup qualifier away from home since February 1, 2022, when they beat their next opponents 3-2 in La Paz.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 2.5 total goals also at 10/11.

Miguelito (7/5) heads the anytime goalscorer market, with Sanchez (18/5) first up for the visitors.

To Win to Nil - Bolivia @ 6/4

Bolivia are well established as the weakest nation, talent-wise, in South America, but the altitude at which they play in home games helps to bridge the gap with their rivals.

So far this campaign, La Verde have picked up just three points on their travels, losing seven of their eight away games, while at home, they've collected 11 points, suffering just two defeats from seven. They were beaten 3-0 in La Paz by reigning World Cup and Copa America champions Argentina in their first home match, going down to 10 men at 1-0 in the 39th minute, before conceding in the sixth minute of second-half stoppage time to lose 2-1 to Ecuador.

Bolivia are unbeaten in their last five home outings, though, keeping three consecutive clean sheets in victories over Peru (2-0), Venezuela (4-0) and Colombia (1-0) before draws with Paraguay (2-2) and Uruguay (0-0).

On Tuesday, they host a Chile side that holds the worst away record in qualifying, with six defeats and just one point to their name from seven games on their travels. La Roja have shipped 15 goals away from home and scored just once themselves, all the way back in September 2023 in a 3-1 defeat to Uruguay.

Chile are now six away qualifiers without a goal, an ominous statistic considering they now travel to a team that has kept four clean sheets in their last five home games. Gareca's charges also lost the reverse fixture in September last year, which earned the Bolivians their first World Cup qualification success on foreign soil in 65 attempts.

Given the above, and how Bolivia still stand an outside shot of clinching a play-off spot, while Chile are almost guaranteed to miss out, backing a home win to nil looks like the best bet for Tuesday's game.

Player to Receive a Card - Roberto Fernandez (BOL) @ 4/1

Head to the 'Player to Receive a Card' tab for this game on Betfred, and you will find Bolivia left-back Roberto Fernandez (Akron Togliatti, on loan from Bolivar) at the bottom of the list, priced at 4/1 to be booked in El Alto. That's somewhat surprising given he has been shown three cards - two yellow and one red - in 11 qualifiers (10 starts).

The 25-year-old was cautioned in the 15th minute of La Verde's home defeat to Argentina in September 2023 before receiving a straight red 24 minutes later, and his third card of the campaign came in the reverse fixture with Chile last September, as he was booked in the 88th minute for remonstrating with the referee.

Fernandez is averaging 0.9 fouls per 2026 World Cup qualifier for Bolivia, lower than his 1.2 per game average for Akron Togliatti in this season's Russian Premier League, a competition in which he was carded four times in 19 appearances (18 starts).

On Tuesday, the 42-cap international could be in direct competition with Chile's Lucas Cepeda (Colo Colo), who played the entirety of La Roja's loss to Argentina in Santiago last week. The 22-year-old made a nuisance of himself, committing three fouls and picking up a yellow in the process, while also winning a couple of free-kicks.

Cepeda is averaging 1.2 fouls won per game in this qualification campaign, despite only three of his five appearances coming as a starter, while in this season's Liga de Primera in Chile, he's averaging two fouls won per game. He did shift over to the left-hand side in the second half, though, as Fabian Hormazabal (Club Universidad de Chile) came on for Pizarro and was deployed on the right, where he was fouled twice by Argentina left-back Nicolas Tagliafico (Lyon), who was booked for his second offence on the 29-year-old.

Fernandez, therefore, could have a couple of tricky opponents to deal with on Tuesday, in what is a must-win game for Bolivia, so I think there's real value to be had in backing him to receive a card in El Alto.

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