Everton vs Brentford Prediction: Lowly sides could keep score down at Goodison

 | 26th April | 

3 mins read

Everton vs Brentford

Back-to-back wins for each of Everton and Brentford look to have secured Premier League survival for both with four games remaining of the 2023/24 campaign, and the pair can now play without fear at Goodison Park on Saturday (KO, 17:30).

The game will be shown live in the UK on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League, and you can gear up for it by checking out my Everton vs Brentford prediction below.

Everton vs Brentford Betting Tips

  • Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1
  • James Tarkowski 1+ shots on target @ 9/4

What a week it has been for the blue half of Merseyside. After beating relegation rivals Nottingham Forest 2-0 at Goodison Park on Sunday, the Toffees went and triumphed against their biggest rivals, Liverpool, by the same scoreline three days later.

Sean Dyche's side are now eight points above 18th-placed Luton Town, and it would be a huge shock if the Hatters were to overtake them now with the weeks running out.

Brentford are one place and two points better off than Everton in 15th after following up a 2-0 home victory over Sheffield United with a 5-1 win at Luton last Saturday.

A win for the Bees this weekend would mathematically secure their Premier League status, irrespective of the outcome of Luton's trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Team News

Nine players started both the win over Forest and the victory over Liverpool, with only Ashley Young and Andre Gomes swapped for Ben Godfrey and James Garner in the Merseyside derby.

Seamus Coleman, Nathan Patterson, Lewis Dobbin, Dele and Beto are all out injured for the hosts.

Brentford striker Ivan Toney missed last weekend's 5-1 win at Kenilworth Road due to a hip injury but head coach Thomas Frank is hopeful of his involvement on Saturday, though any participation is likely to be from the bench.

Rico Henry, Josh Dasilva and Ben Mee are all out injured for the remainder of the season, while Aaron Hickey is still a couple of weeks away at least from returning.

Match Odds

Everton are 13/10 to do the double over Brentford, having beaten them 3-1 in September's reverse fixture at the Brentford Community Stadium. That gives them an implied win probability of 43.5%, while the visitors can be backed at 7/4 (36.4%), and the draw at 11/5 (31.3%).

Both teams to score can be found at 4/7 and over 3.5 goals at 7/4.

Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1

There have been six goals in each of Brentford's last two away games, but they feel like outliers.

Their three other games across the last five all ended with two or fewer goals, and it's four of the previous five for Everton, whose 6-0 defeat at Chelsea has proved the exception to the rule in this month's fixtures so far.

We could see another low-key affair on Saturday, with a point likely to do just fine for both sides.

Under 2.5 goals in Everton vs Brentford at 1-1

James Tarkowski 1+ shots on target @ 9/4

Jarrad Branthwaite stole the headlines on Wednesday as he scored the opening goal of the Merseyside derby, but his central defensive partner, James Tarkowski, was also putting himself about in the Liverpool box, seeing a header saved by Alisson Becker in the 20th minute.

Tarkowski (0.7) actually averages more shots per game than Branthwaite (0.5) in this season's Premier League and it was the elder statesman who scored against his former side earlier in the season, and he has had a shot on target against the Bees in two of the three matches he has faced them as a Blues player.

Set-pieces were crucial for Everton in midweek and Dyche is likely to make that a big focus again this weekend, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Tarkowski get on the end of one and direct an effort goalwards.

James Tarkowski 1+ shots on target in Everton vs Brentford at 9-4

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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