Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Simeone’s side to get back on track

Atletico Madrid's pursuit of an 11th La Liga title suffered a huge hit before the international break as they threw away a two-goal lead at home to Barcelona, who scored four times in the final third of the game to win 4-2 and move top of the table.

Los Colchoneros have Barcelona in their sights again on Saturday (15:15, La Liga TV), but this time the city rather than the famous club as Barca's less illustrious neighbours Espanyol provide the opposition at the RCDE Stadium. Below are my Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Jose Catala, Pablo Ramon (both knee), Jose Gragera (foot) and Fernando Pacheco (ankle) are all in the treatment room for Espanyol, who are sweating on the fitness of Alvaro Trejo after the defender missed the 2-1 defeat to Real Mallorca on March 15 with a knock.

Football Odds

However, Pol Lozano returns from suspension after an accumulation of yellow cards ruled him out of the trip to the Balearic Islands. He could replace Exposito in midfield.

Angel Correa remains suspended for Atletico, who could again be without Koke (muscle). The 33-year-old midfielder has missed his side's last seven games, last featuring in a 1-1 draw at home to Celta Vigo on February 15.

Diego Simeone could make several changes to the starting XI that lined up against Barca, with Conor Gallagher, Alexander Sorloth - who scored off the bench against Hansi Flick's side - and Javi Galan among those pushing for appearances from the off.

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Espanyol have failed to win either of their last two home games, drawing 1-1 with Girona and Athletic Club, but the last time a Madrid club - Real - came calling to the RCDE Stadium, on February 1, they won 1-0. They're also unbeaten in their last three head-to-heads with Atletico, albeit they've all ended in draws, and are 5/1, or a 16.7% chance, to consign Los Colchoneros to a third straight defeat in the league.

The visitors, meanwhile, are 3/5, or a 62.5% chance, to claim a first La Liga success since February 22 when they beat Valencia 3-0 at the Estadio de Mestalla. The draw is priced at 11/4, both teams to score at 11/10, and over 2.5 total goals also at 11/10.

Julian Alvarez scored his 11th goal of the La Liga campaign against Barca and at 6/4, is joint-favourite alongside Sorloth in the anytime goalscorer market; Javi Puado (3/1) is the shortest-priced for the hosts.

Booking Points Over/Under +32.5 - Over 32.5 @ 11/10

Espanyol are one of just two clubs in La Liga this season yet to receive a red card, but their tally of 70 yellows is behind only Las Palmas (88), Getafe (86), Alaves, Real Valladolid (both 76) and Sevilla (72), and means they are averaging 2.6 per game. With Betfred, a yellow amounts to 10 booking points, so that's 25.9 booking points p/g, just in their direction.

Atletico, meanwhile, are joint-11th in the yellow card standings, with their count of 64 averaging out at 2.3 per game (22.9 booking points p/g). They've also received three red cards, which isn't exactly a surprise for a team under the stewardship of Simeone.

Over 32.5 booking points has landed in Atletico's last nine league matches and with a title still in sight, we can expect the visitors to be scrapping for every ball on Saturday, while Espanyol are only a point above the relegation zone and won't be shirking any challenges either.

This all leads me to think we could see several cards shown at the RCDE Stadium, and over 32.5 booking points looks easily achievable.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under +3.5 - Atletico Madrid & Under 3.5 @ 21/20

Back-to-back La Liga defeats aren't a good look for Atletico, but the latest was against a star-studded Barca side - and they were 2-0 up in that game. The first was a 2-1 defeat away to Getafe where they were leading until the 88th minute when a red card to Correa was quickly followed by a brace from Mauro Arambarri.

Espanyol have only lost two of their last nine matches and did beat Real Madrid on home soil at the start of last month; however, they've since failed to beat Athletic Club and Girona there.

This weekend, they will face an Atleti side desperate to get back to winning ways as they look to keep pace with the top two, who look to be racing away from them.

I don't see many goals being scored on Saturday - only three clubs have struck fewer times than Espanyol (26) in La Liga this season, while Atleti (46) are only averaging 1.6 per game and have conceded the fewest (22) in the division.

Under 3.5 goals has landed in 82% of Atleti's league games in 2024/25, ranking them joint-fifth in that regard, with Espanyol (78%) in 11th.

There were no goals scored in August's stalemate in Madrid and we could be starved of strikes again here, although I do think the visitors will edge it and take three points back to the capital.

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