England vs Senegal Prediction: Hosts face tough test

Thomas Tuchel’s England side put in a woeful performance on Saturday as they beat Andorra 1-0 away from home, and the German boss will hope for more as his side host Senegal in an international friendly match at Nottingham Forest’s City Ground (19:45, ITV1). 

Below you can find my England vs Senegal predictions as the Three Lions look to head into the summer on a high.

Football Odds

Team News

After trying Reece James at left-back, Curtis Jones at right-back and Jordan Henderson in midfield against Andorra, I’m expecting a fair few changes from Tuchel heading into this one. Noni Madueke played from the left and Morgan Rogers from the right, and it all looked a bit unnatural in truth. 

Even Cole Palmer and Jude Bellingham didn’t look fluid as the attacking midfielders behind Harry Kane, and with this being a friendly, I’d expect rotation. Myles Lewis-Skelly, Levi Colwill, Morgan Gibbs-White, Eberechi Eze and Anthony Gordon could all start, while Ivan Toney could start in place of Kane after his shock call-up.

James Trafford and Dean Henderson will hope for minutes in goal, with Henderson having won the FA Cup, and Trafford the next big thing for England following a cracking season with Burnley in which he conceded a record-breaking 16 goals. 

For Senegal, after their 1-1 draw with the Republic of Ireland, we can expect a strong showing. Kalidou Koulibaly should play, while Nicolas Jackson should start up front and Edouard Mendy should return in goal after the trio were all rested against Ireland. 

Ismaila Sarr scored the equaliser off the bench and should also start, along with Everton star Iliman Ndiaye as part of an exciting front three. Idrissa Gueye has just been offered a new deal by the Toffeees and could also be involved, while there’s some excitement around the 18-year-old Metz striker with the same name - who could get some minutes off the bench. 

England vs Senegal Odds

England are the 2/5 favourites to win this game, giving them a win probability of 71%, while Senegal can be backed at 11/2. A draw is 16/5, over 2.5 goals is 4/6 and BTTS is 10/11 if you fancy some goals. 

You can also find plenty of Bet Builder Boosts on Betfred, with England to win, Eze to score and Bellingham to score or assist now 9/2. In terms of goalscorers, Kane is the favourite to open the scoring at 10/3.

BTTS @ 10/11 

Now the stats aren’t going to support this selection, but I do think we are in for an entertaining clash at the City Ground. I’m not just saying that because I will be in attendance on Tuesday night, I promise. 

What we saw from England on Saturday just wasn’t good enough by any stretch. Tuchel has to get his team playing in a more fluid manner and although they’ve kept five clean sheets on the bounce and seven in their last nine, the opposition hasn’t been challenging at all. 

Senegal represent the toughest test of Tuchel’s reign so far, while England haven’t played a team as good as them since losing to Spain in the Euro 2024 final. I think when we take rotation into account, both teams will find the net in a relatively open encounter. The good news is the price on offer is generous given England’s recent run of clean sheets.

Price Boost - Senegal or draw, Jackson and Sarr to have one SOT @ 16/1

I’ve taken a look at the Price Boosts on offer from Betfred for this game, and I think the best value is to side with Senegal. I think we could see an entertaining draw, and with plenty of attacking quality, the African nation can trouble England. They haven’t lost since being knocked out of the Afcon by Ivory Coast in January 2024 - a run of 14 games since then. 

I can’t back bets with any England players given we don’t know how severe the rotation will be, but we can expect Jordan Pickford to be rested and a new-look back four. As a result, I think Senegal will have a fair few chances, so backing both Jackson and Sarr to each have a shot on target makes sense in my eyes. 

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