Empoli vs Roma Prediction: Don’t bet on the home win

Empoli need three points to survive as the final matches of the Serie A season take place over the course of the weekend, with relegation very much on the minds of many. This match will be on TNT Sports 2 from 19:45 on Sunday evening.

Our Serie A expert Daniele Fisichella isn't too sure that they'll be able to get the victory they need. Read why in his Empoli vs Roma column for us below...

The permutations are straightforward for the hosts: they’ll be saved with a win, regardless of the results of Frosinone vs Udinese.

A draw might guarantee Empoli to be involved in a relegation play-off against Udinese but only if the Friulani lose at the ‘Benito Stirpe’

With 90 minutes left to play, not having to depend on other teams’ results is not the worst possible scenario for Empoli. But, despite all bookmakers making Davide Nicola’s side favourite on Sunday, realistically their chances of achieving salvation are very slim.

Roma have nothing to play for and over the weekend will hope Bologna, Juventus and Torino will pick up points so to avoid Atalanta finishing in the top four. In fact, the Giallorossi could become Italy’s sixth team in next year’s Champions League, but only if the Europa League winners finish in fifth position.

Motivations often play a big part at the end of the season, but it’s unlikely those alone can affect the result of a game, especially when, like in this case, the gap between the two sides is so wide.

Therefore, backing Roma to get at least a draw represent the value bet of the last Serie A weekend of the season.

Team News:

Cerri is injured, so Cambiaghi and Niang will be probably given the nod in attack.

Marin will replace the suspended Grassi in the role of playmaker. Gyasi and Pezzella will play on the flanks. In defence Bereszyński is ahead of Walukiewicz who has recovered from his injury.

Paredes and Lukaku are also suspended, Paulo Dybala is still not in top condition and might be introduced only in the second half. Former Empoli player Baldanzi should start, Abraham is ahead of Azmoun. Bove will play in midfield and Kristensen is expected to be the right-back.

Empoli vs Roma Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Empoli vs Roma market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Third from bottom Empoli are favourites (1/1) to get the three points on Sunday. The hosts have won only two of their last 11 matches and have a very bad record against the team from the capital.

In fact, the Giallorossi have obtained a success in 24 out of 31 games played against the Tuscan side (71% of the total), including in all the last eight league matches.

Empoli won the last time, at home, 1-0 in February 2007. Since then, Roma have obtained five wins and two draws at the ‘Castellani’.

The odds for the draw (11/4) and the away win (5/2) are almost identical. Roma are seventh in the away table, but they have only failed to score in one of their last eight trips.

Seven of Roma's last nine Serie A away games have seen both teams score (odds of 4/6 for Yes, 11/10 for No), and Empoli have kept just two clean sheets since the beginning of February (14 matches in total).

Draw or Roma @ 4/5

Empoli have Serie A’s worst attack with 27 goals and in front of their fans they have only scored 13 times, four less than bottom of the table Salernitana.

At home, Davide Nicola’s men have only won four games, three of which without conceding, but none of them against top-7 teams in Italy.

In fact, at home, Empoli have been defeated by Juventus, Inter, Atalanta, Lazio, AC Milan and Bologna with an aggregate score of 12-0.

Ultimately, credibility is at stake for De Rossi and his boyhood club. Just imagine how much criticism they’ll receive if they won’t put enough effort and hand Empoli the win.

A couple of weeks ago an under-strength Inter, who had celebrated the title only two weeks before, got beaten 1-0 by Sassuolo which provoked the angry reaction of all other teams involved in the relegation battle.

Last season Roma were involved in a similar scenario as they played Spezia, at the ‘Stadio Olimpico’, on match day 38.

The Giallorossi had nothing to play for and a draw would have saved the visitors.

Yet Roma went on to score a last minute winner with Paulo Dybala that condemned Spezia to the relegation play-off, which they eventually lost against Verona.

Roma Draw No Bet @ 6/4

Forget for a moment Roma won the reverse fixture 7-0 in September. Back then Mourinho was still in charge and Empoli have changed two managers since.

Under Daniele De Rossi, the Giallorossi have only lost three league games (four overall, including the defeat against Leverkusen), all against top sides, Inter, Bologna and Atalanta. This season they’ve also advanced to the Europa League’s semi-final and got oh so close to beating the German champions.

Since the end of January, their record against teams in the bottom half of the table has been excellent, with eight wins and a draw (0-0 at Lecce).

You can check out all of Daniele's Football Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Football writers...