Croatia vs Italy Prediction: Back the draw that will qualify the Azzurri

Father Time is undefeated and the Croatian team might well be finding this out at this competition as they need to beat Italy on Monday night (20:00, BBC One) to have any hope of making it out of the group stage.

Our Italian football expect got the assignment for this one and he likes the Draw as that is all Italy need to qualify. You can check out his full match preview and Croatia vs Italy Predictions below...

In a thrilling ‘Group of Death’ decider in Leipzig, Croatia and Italy face off in a do-or-die match to settle Group B. Both teams are fighting for their Euro 2024 futures, with Italy in a stronger position. They need only to match Albania’s result against the already-qualified Spain to reach the last 16. Croatia, on the other hand, find themselves in a precarious situation, likely needing three points to stay in the tournament.

Croatia's campaign has been disappointing so far. They were 3-0 down to Spain by half-time in their opening match and then conceded a last-minute equaliser to Albania, leaving them with just one point. The Croats are a team with ageing but still capable talents, such as Luka Modrić and Ivan Perišić. Despite their struggles, they remain a strong opponent who is accustomed to playing international matches of high calibre.

Italy's encounter with Spain was a clear indicator of their current form. Spalletti’s men were thoroughly dominated, with the final 1-0 scoreline flattering the Azzurri. Spain controlled the ball for nearly 80 minutes, out shooting Italy 20 to 4, showcasing a vast difference in threat, energy, passing, quality, and creativity. Italy’s defence relied heavily on goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, who made several crucial saves.

Despite this, Italy remains optimistic. A win or draw against Croatia would secure second place for Spalletti’s team. A loss would complicate matters, hinging on the result of Albania vs Spain and the standings of the best third-placed teams.

This scenario is best avoided, as it makes qualification uncertain. Italy needs a standout performance against Modric and his team, to regain momentum.

Team News:

Luciano Spalletti is poised to make several changes to his line-up. Gianluca Scamacca is expected to lead the attack, with Federico Chiesa alongside him. Mattia Zaccagni and Davide Frattesi, who will be pushed forward into an attacking midfield role, will also join the offensive setup.

In midfield, there is a selection dilemma between Jorginho, who has had a lacklustre performance so far, and Nicolò Fagioli. Defensive adjustments are also anticipated, with Matteo Darmian likely to replace Giovanni Di Lorenzo.

Ante Budimir's impactful performance off the bench against Albania has put him in contention for a place in Croatia's starting XI. Manager Zlatko Dalic's decision to deploy Ivan Perišić at left-back and Josko Gvardiol in the centre did not yield the desired results on match day two, which might lead to Borna Sosa stepping in for the former Inter Milan star.

Croatia vs Italy Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Croatia vs Italy Euro 2024 market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Italy have never beaten Croatia since they became an independent country, recording three draws and five defeats since 1992. Despite this, Italy are favourites (11/8) to win on Tuesday and qualify from Group B. Luciano Spalletti’s men are also likely to advance to the knockout stage with a draw (9/4), giving them an 89.34% chance of continuing their journey at Euro 2024.

A win for Croatia pays 21/10, as Zlatko Dalic’s side have lost three of their last six competitive matches. On the other hand, Italy have only lost two of their last 13 games, including friendlies, with defeats only to England and Spain.

Four of Croatia’s last six games have ended with fewer than three goals, and only four of Italy’s last 17 matches have produced three goals or more. Both sides have scored in just four of Croatia’s last 13 games, suggesting a cagey affair: Under 2.5 Goals pays 4/5, while the odds for Over 2.5 Goals are 10/11.

Italy or Draw and Over 1.5 Goals @ 4/5

Against Albania, Croatia demonstrated their ability to dominate possession, holding the ball 67% of the time in the first half—a new record for them in a major tournament. They also rank third in dribbles (36) at Euro 2024, indicating that, sometimes, their most talented players might lack passing options.

Luciano Spalletti, known for his modern, offensive style focusing on passing, movement, and vertical play, was let down in match day tow by players lacking key attributes such as intensity, stamina, speed, and, crucially, the ability to take on and beat opponents.

Hindsight suggests that fielding a more physically robust Italy from the start might have been better. However, the gap with Spain was primarily technical.

Spalletti, a very astute coach, will likely make tactical adjustments, probably by switching to a 3-5-2 formation, to gain the edge over a struggling Croatia side.

Both Teams To Score Yes @ 4/6

For Croatia, an aggressive start is essential, which might lead to an open game with numerous scoring chances. Only one of their previous 23 Euros games finished 0-0, but they have only kept one clean sheet in their last 13 games at the European Championship.

Despite the recent defeat, Italy must not lose heart. The difference with Spain was evident, but other celebrated teams like England are also struggling. The path ahead is long, and finding the right keys to revive the squad, which has been humbled by the last match, is challenging. If Italy can't compete on quality, they must rely on strategy.

Score Prediction: Croatia 1 Italy 1 @ 11/2

While Croatia needs a win to stay alive in Euro 2024, Italy requires a solid performance to ensure their progression. Considering Italy’s need to avoid defeat to ensure progression, this bet leverages their tactical adaptability and resilience.

*You can check out all of our Euro 2024 Odds over at betfred.com.

Betfred Match Offers:

Goal Fever

Throughout Euro 2024, Betfred are offering all customers a 25% cash bonus if your selected team in the Match Result market wins by 3+ Goals on selected matches. Croatia vs Italy is part of this promotion, so if you back and team and they win by three or more, you would see 25% added to your winnings on that bet.

Double Delight & Hat-Trick Heaven

This Croatia vs Italy game is also one for those who like a bit of a potential bonus in the first goalscorer markets. Should the player you bet on score first and subsequently go on to score a second in the match, we'll double the odds and if they get a hat-trick, we'll treble the odds!

Daniele Fisichella primarily covers Italian football for us here at Betfred Insights and he'll be following the Italian national side throughout the Euro's for us. You can check out his and all the other Football Betting Tips from our writing staff on our main Football hub page.