Coventry vs Leeds Prediction: Farke to leave Mark in the dark

Coventry City are back in action on Saturday afternoon (15:00) as they host title-chasing Leeds United at the CBS Arena. The Sky Blues were handed a devastating blow in their own play-off charge on Monday when they were beaten 2-1 at home by Cardiff, and now they will need to beat some of the big boys to finish in the top six. 

Leeds got back to winning ways on Monday with a 3-1 win over Swansea, having drawn 2-2 with Watford on Good Friday. They are now just one point behind league leaders Ipswich Town, but Leicester are lurking with one game in hand. It means the Coventry vs Leeds prediction will carry huge weight for this promotion race, which is getting more and more intense with every passing week. 

Team News

Coventry are still without Tatsuhiro Sakamoto and Jamie Allen, which means Mark Robins is limited on options in attacking areas. It means Milan van Ewijk is set to continue in his more advanced role on the right, with Joel Latibeaudiere in at right-back. Victor Torp could come into the midfield, while Callum O’Hare could replace Kasey Palmer in the number ten role. 

Daniel Farke may choose to rotate his number nine, with Patrick Bamford taking that role over the last few months. The duo of Joel Pire and Georginio Rutter had served him well this term and could be partnered together again, with Crysencio Summerville and Dan James expected to continue out wide. Willy Gnonto and Ilia Gruev remain absent. 

Match Odds

The away side are the obvious favourites here, priced at 10/11 for the win. That gives them an implied win probability of 52%. Coventry are available at 12/5, with a draw priced at 5/2. BTTS is 4/7, and over 2.5 goals is 8/13. 

Leeds to win and over 3.5 goals @ 18/5

Leeds United are one of the best teams the Championship has ever seen, and Farke has his eyes set on a third consecutive promotion from this level. He boasts some of the finest attacking talent in the league and in Summerville, the best wide player in the division. 

Coventry’s games tend to feature a decent amount of goals, with their last eight featuring over 2.5 goals. Given they’ve got two dangerous forwards in Haji Wright and Ellis Simms, I believe they will find the net in a high-scoring game that ultimately ends in defeat. 

Leeds have more than enough about them to score a few at the CBS Arena, especially against a Cov side lacking confidence after a 2-1 defeat to Cardiff last time out. Another three points on the road for Leeds looks like the most likely outcome on Saturday afternoon.

Ellis Simms to score anytime @ 21/10

Let’s focus on the man who has scored more goals than anybody else in 2024. As of January 20, Simms had scored three league goals for the Sky Blues, and been in and out of the team. Since that point, he’s been absolutely sensational, and Mark Robins looks to have breathed new life into the former Everton striker.

Across the last two months, he’s scored 14 goals in his last ten games in all competitions, firing the Sky Blues to Wembley with a brace at Molineux and dragging them up the table. It feels as though he is finally believing in his own ability and at Coventry, he’s found a permanent home. 

Leeds have conceded three goals in their last two games and against this vibrant Coventry attack, I expect them to concede again. Simms to score anytime at 21/10 feels like a great price. 

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