Como vs AC Milan Prediction: I Lariani can keep unbeaten run going at home

Following their Supercoppa Italiana success in Riyadh at the start of the year, AC Milan were brought back down to earth by Cagliari on Saturday as they were held to a 1-1 draw by the Sardinians at San Siro. Next, I Rossoneri face a Tuesday trip (17:30) to the Stadio Guiseppe Sinigaglia to take on a resurgent Como who have lost just one of their last six games and came from behind to draw 1-1 with high-flying Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico last Friday.

Read on for my Como vs AC Milan prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this midweek Serie A contest.

Team News

Como suffered a big blow in Rome last Friday when 20-year-old star Nico Paz was withdrawn after 20 minutes. The Argentine sustained an ankle injury and will miss the visit of Milan on Tuesday, but his absence is likely to pave the way for Assane Diao, who replaced him against Lazio, to make his first start for the club. Diao joined Como earlier this month from Spanish side Real Betis and will be looking to nail down a place in Cesc Fabregas' starting XI as quickly as possible.

Former Barcelona midfielder Sergi Roberto and on-loan Manchester City 22-year-old Maximo Perrone remain in the Como treatment room while Alberto Dossena, who played the full 90 against Lazio, is a doubt with a swollen ankle. Fellow defender Edoardo Goldaniga is back from a one-game ban, though.

Football Odds

Milan are reportedly trying to sign Manchester City captain Kyle Walker this month but their current first-choice right-back, Emerson Royal, is back from suspension after missing Saturday's stalemate with Cagliari and should replace Davide Calabari in Tuesday's starting XI.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Samuel Chukwueze and Alessandro Florenzi remain injured, however.

Portuguese head coach Sergio Conceicao, who only took over from compatriot Paulo Fonseca just before their victorious Supercoppa Italiania campaign in Saudi Arabia, could make a few changes to his lineup following a run of four games in 14 days. Ismael Bennacer, Tammy Abraham and Alejandro Jimenez are among those who could come into Conceicao's thinking ahead of the trip to Como.

Como vs AC Milan Odds

Como have won their last two home games 2-0 against Roma and Lecce and I Lariani are 11/4, or a 26.7% chance, to make it three victories in a row at the Stadio Guiseppe Sinigaglia on Tuesday, and it's 20/1 for Fabregas' side to record a third straight win by that scoreline on home soil. Milan, meanwhile, are 10/11 favourites for the three points, giving I Rossoneri an implied win probability of 52.4%.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/5.

Double Chance & Both Teams to Score - Como or Draw & Yes @ 9/5

Como endured a difficult start to the season upon their promotion from Serie B, failing to win any of their opening four games, and after ending their wait for a victory by beating Atalanta and Verona 3-2 back-to-back, I Lariani then went on another long winless run that lasted nine matches before overcoming Roma and Lecce in their last three games of 2024.

Fabregas played in some wonderfully attacking sides in his career, particularly in the first half of it as he starred in Arsene Wenger's Arsenal before featuring as a false nine under Pep Guardiola. However, as a head coach himself, the Spaniard has managed to make his team resolute recently, with just 10 goals conceded across their last nine games - a far cry from the 21 they shipped in the first 10.

Como have kept back-to-back clean sheets at home and only conceded once away to Lazio last Friday, so Milan, who have only scored three times across their last four Serie A outings, know they have a job on their hands to breach the home side's defence on Tuesday. Encouragingly, though, I Rossoneri have scored in all eight away league games so far this season and have got on the scoresheet in all of Conceicao's first three matches in charge.

Both teams to score has landed in 50 per cent (nine) of Milan's 18 Serie A contests in 2024/25 and 58 per cent (11) of Como's with only Parma (75 per cent), Lazio (65 per cent) and Monza (63 per cent) recording a higher percentage than Tuesday's hosts.

Como have lost Paz ahead of this fixture but they managed to score past Lazio without him on the pitch last Friday and their goalscorer that night, ex-Milan striker Patrick Cutrone, may feel he has a point to prove against his former employers who offloaded him to English club Wolves in 2019 after a three-goal season in Serie A. Cutrone has six league goals this season, two of which have come in his last two games, and alongside Diao, Alieu Fadera and Gabriel Strefezza, could pose problems to the Milan defence in midweek.

Milan beat Juventus and Inter in Saudi Arabia at the start of the calendar year but having drawn to Cagliari, Roma (both 1-1) and Genoa (0-0) in their last four league games, and only scraping past Verona (0-1) in that period, I'm backing Como, unbeaten in their last three at home, to avoid defeat on Tuesday, although I do think the visitors can at least get on the scoresheet.

Player to Receive a Card - Gabriel Strefezza (COM) @ 16/5

Strefezza has played all but one of Como's league matches this season, starting in all 18 of his appearances and averaging 81 minutes per game. He's only been yellow-carded twice but is averaging 1.4 fouls per game and was booked four times in 19 Serie A outings for Lecce in the first half of last season, including in a 2-2 draw with Milan in November 2023 when he was written into the referee's notebook for bringing down Theo Hernandez, before joining Como in Serie B.

The 27-year-old received two yellows and one red in 15 second-tier games for Como earlier this year before the club sealed their promotion to Serie A, a division in which he picked up eight yellows in 2021/22 and five in 2022/23. Strefezza will be back in competition with Hernandez on Tuesday with the Brazilian expected to start on the right-hand side of Como's attack while the Frenchman is likely to continue at left-back.

Hernandez has been fouled 1.5 times per game on average in this season's Serie A and has been upended at least twice in his last four league matches, highlighting the lengths opposing players - particularly wingers - have to go to in order to stop his forward forays down the left side.

Cagliari's Mattia Felici was shown a yellow for a foul on Hernandez last weekend and Roma's Mats Hummels was booked in the league game before that for taking down the 27-year-old, who was also the recipient of a foul from Atalanta's Raoul Bellanova on December 6 which earned La Deea's wing-back a caution, meaning an opposition player has been booked for taking out Hernandez in the France international's last three league starts.

Strefezza has history with Hernandez and isn't shy of initiating contact or receiving a yellow, so I like his price to go into book on Tuesday.

Offers

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