Colo-Colo vs Fluminense Prediction: Another low-scorer in Santiago?

Colo-Colo and Fluminense meet again in Copa Libertadores Group A on Friday (KO, 01:00), exactly one month after the Brazilian side triumphed 2-1 over the Chileans at the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro.

Read below for my Colo-Colo vs Fluminense prediction and all the latest team news and match odds heading into this game at the Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Santiago.

There's been little to separate the four sides in Group A so far, with Fluminense leading the way on five points after three games, and Colo-Colo third on four points. Meanwhile, Paraguayan outfit Cerro Porteno and Peruvian side Alianza Lima played out a 1-1 draw in their fourth match on Thursday, leaving them second on five points and fourth on three points respectively.

Colo-Colo beat Godoy Cruz and Sportivo Trinidense over two legs in qualifying to advance to the Copa Libertadores group stage, where they opened up with a 1-0 win over Cerro Porteno in Santiago. They haven't won since in the competition, however, after losing to Fluminense and being held to a goalless draw at home by Alianza Lima.

Reigning champions Fluminense began their campaign with a 1-1 draw in Lima before beating Colo-Colo in Rio de Janeiro and drawing 0-0 in Asuncion.

Team News

Colo-Colo pair Arturo Vidal and Leonardo Gil are suspended for Friday's match due to an accumulation of yellow cards in the competition, while Gonzalo Castellani is expected to miss out through injury.

Fluminense forward Keno has been named in their squad and could make his return from injury after nearly two months out, but Andre, Gabriel Pires, Lele and Marlon all remain sidelined.

Familiar names to European audiences in the Fluminense ranks include Real Madrid legend Marcelo, former Bayern Munich and Juventus winger Douglas Costa, and on-loan Arsenal attacker Marquinhos.

Match Odds

Colo-Colo are 6/4 to exact revenge over their opponents and pick up three points on Friday, giving them an implied win probability of 40%, while Fluminense can be backed at 7/4 (36.4%), and the draw at 15/8.

Both teams to score is 10/11 and Marquinhos is 12/1 to open the scoring, as he did in the reverse fixture last month.

Draw @ 15/8

There wasn't much to separate the sides in Rio de Janeiro as Marquinhos' fifth-minute opener was cancelled out 14 minutes later by Guillermo Paiva's strike, and a second Colo-Colo equaliser from Cristian Zavala - after German Cano had put the Brazilians back in front - was only ruled out by the VAR following a handball.

Erick Wiemberg was then sent off for the visitors in the 83rd minute as Fluminense closed the game out.

I expect a similarly close-fought encounter on Friday as Colo-Colo look to make home advantage count. Neither Cerro Porteno nor Alianza Lima have been able to beat them at the Estadio Monumental David Arellano so far, and while Fluminense represent a step up in opposition, the Tricolor have won just one of their last eight away games, and that was against a lower-tier outfit in Sampaio Correa in the Copa do Brasil on May 1.

Fluminenese drew three of those matches, with two of them coming away from home in the Copa Libertadores. They required a 72nd-minute Marquinhos equaliser to rescue a point in Lima and were subsequently held to a goalless draw in Asuncion.

The dual absence of Vidal and Gil should help Fluminense to get the upper hand in midfield, but that may not be enough for them to secure the victory on Friday.

First half total goals - under 0.5 @ 6/4

Group A has been pretty starved of goals so far, with just nine scored across seven games up to this point.

The Estadio Monumental David Arellano has witnessed just a single strike in two matches against Cerro Porteno and Alianza Lima, and Lucas Cepeda's winner against the former came in the second half.

Fluminense's two away games, meanwhile, have produced just two goals, both coming in a 1-1 draw with Alianza Lima, and only one of those came in the first half.

There were a couple of early goals exchanged between Fluminense and Colo-Colo in Rio de Janeiro last month, but at the halfway stage of the group, I'm expecting more caution to be applied, particularly as the Brazilians are the away side.

Fluminense are the reigning champions and have a superior squad to Colo-Colo, so would be expected to take the game to the opposition at the Maracana, but there will be less pressure on them to attack from the off on Friday. A draw would see them remain top of Group A and push them a point clear of second place ahead of a home game against Cerro Porteno next week.

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