Chelsea vs Barrow Prediction: Nkunku to burst Bluebirds’ balloon

After back-to-back away games in the Premier League, Chelsea return to Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night (19:45, Sky Sports+) looking to make it three straight wins when they host League 2 leaders Barrow in the Carabao Cup third round.

Read below for my Chelsea vs Barrow prediction to find out whether I'm backing the Bluebirds to pull off a famous victory in west London...

Team News

Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca is expected to make wholesale changes to his starting XI for this cup clash at home to a fourth-division side. Filip Jorgensen has been restricted to Uefa Conference League duty since arriving from Villarreal in the summer but the Danish goalkeeper is set to line up in between the sticks on Tuesday, with Axel Disasi and Benoit Badiashile in front of him as centre-backs.

Reece James and Malo Gusto are still injured so to give Wesley Fofana and Marc Cucurella some rest, 18-year-old Josh Acheampong and the previously-exiled Ben Chilwell could start at full-back.

Romeo Lavia is another player sidelined, while Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez are expected to drop out of the midfield, opening up space for Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Renato Veiga to come into the side.

Joao Felix, Christopher Nkunku and Mykhailo Mudryk all look certain to start at Stamford Bridge, leaving room for one other, which could be Marc Guiu or Pedro Neto.

The likes of Cole Palmer, Noni Madueke and Nicolas Jackson appear destined for substitute roles, at best.

Football Odds

Barrow sit top of the League 2 standings after seven games played, the latest two of which have seen them win. The Bluebirds won 2-1 at Grimsby Town on September 14 and manager Stephen Clemence made three changes to his starting XI for Saturday's 2-0 victory over Newport County, which extended the club's unbeaten record in the league to five matches.

The former Birmingham City midfielder must now decide whether to stick with the same side that served him so well on the weekend or freshen things up for the trip to the Premier League giants.

Clemence appears to have a full squad available to him, with goalkeeper Paul Farman making his return from suspension on Saturday, though 23-year-old shot-stopper Wyll Stanway will be hoping to make a third appearance of the campaign on Tuesday.

Dominic Telford, Emile Acquah and Neo Eccleston are among those hoping to be promoted from the substitutes bench in west London.

Chelsea vs Barrow Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Chelsea vs Barrow page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Unsurprisingly, Chelsea are overwhelming favourites to win in regulation time, with odds of 1/40 giving the hosts an implied win probability of 97.6%, while Barrow are a massive 33/1 (2.2%) to cause a shock at Stamford Bridge.

The draw, which would send the tie straight to penalties, is available at 12/1, and you can get 13/8 for both teams to score.

Palmer (4/9) and Nkunku (1/2) head the anytime scorer market, with Ged Garner (5/1) shortest priced for Barrow.

First Scorer - Christopher Nkunku @ 11/4

Injuries restricted Nkunku to just 13 appearances for Chelsea in his debut season, with the Frenchman only managing to score three goals, but he has already matched that total in just seven outings this term.

The 26-year-old has only started once in the Premier League - the opening weekend defeat at home to Manchester City (0-2) - but struck the only goal of the game as a second-half substitute at AFC Bournemouth earlier this month, and scored home and away against Swiss side Servette in the Europa Conference League play-offs.

Those goals mean Nkunku has scored in both cup starts this season, and all three of his strikes in 2024/25 have been the opening effort of the game (the only one in the case of the victory at Bournemouth).

As Chelsea are expected to beat Barrow convincingly on Tuesday, there is little value to be found in the anytime scorer market, but at 11/4, I like Nkunku's price of scoring the first versus the Bluebirds.

Both of the Paris Saint-Germain Academy graduate's opening strikes against Servette came from the penalty spot, and with Palmer expected to drop out of the starting XI at Stamford Bridge, Nkunku should be front of the queue to net from 12 yards should an infringement occur in the Barrow box, strengthening his chances of scoring first.

If he does find the back of the net, expect his customary balloon celebration to come out to the delight of his adoring fans.

Total Goals - Under 3.5 @ 6/4

I'm expecting Chelsea to win relatively easily on Tuesday, but I think there is value to be had in backing under 3.5 total goals at Stamford Bridge.

Maresca is expected to make plenty of changes to his starting XI, and while there is no shortage of quality in the Chelsea ranks, with Joao Felix, Nkunku and Neto all primed to begin the game, there could be a lack of fluency and chemistry, particularly as there have been big changes during the summer and many of these stars are yet to play much with each other yet.

Moreover, Barrow come into the contest on a high after back-to-back wins against Grimsby and Newport. Of course, the Bluebirds will be well aware of the gargantuan task ahead of them, and that the opposition will be several levels up on anything they have faced so far, but the togetherness in their ranks, formed by their strong start to the season, should stand them in good stead.

A 2-0, 3-0 or 2-1 would be respectable for the visitors, and I think those three scorelines are most likely to be seen at Stamford Bridge. I'm not completely convinced by one, so the under 3.5 looks like the play here.

This bet has landed in six of Chelsea's seven matches this term, including their last four, and in seven of Barrow's 10.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any EFL Cup or Europa League game on Wednesday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Thursday’s Europa League games.

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