Hull vs Derby Prediction: Goals on the cards at the MKM?

A game that is crucial to the Championship play-off race comes our way on Tuesday night as Hull City host Derby County at the MKM Stadium (19:45 GMT, Sky Sports+). 

Hull have slightly lost their way of late, losing their last two home games, while Derby also slipped out of the top six over the weekend. Below you can find my Hull vs Derby predictions featuring team news and more. 

Team News

Sergej Jakirovic has confirmed that Charlie Hughes will return to the team against Derby on Tuesday, having sat out the weekend defeat as a precaution. Joe Gelhardt’s goal should ensure his spot in the side behind Oli McBurnie up top, but Kieran Dowell and Lewis Koumas could be brought into the XI. 

Paddy McNair is likely to be the man to miss out in favour of Hughes, with his own goal not doing anything to help his argument for a starting spot. Mohamed Belloumi, Matt Crooks and Semi Ajayi remain among the absentees. 

Football Odds

Derby boss John Eustace may make a few changes after an underwhelming 2-0 defeat to Watford last time out. The Rams haven’t looked as sharp since Bobby Clark came out of the side so expect him to start, with Oscar Fraulo also a potential option in midfield. 

Carlton Morris could feature from kick-off, but Eustace is likely to stick with in-form Patrick Agyemang and use Morris’ experience off the bench. 

Today's Football Fixtures

Hull vs Derby Odds 

Hull are 11/8 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 42%, while Derby are priced at 2/1 to take the three points. A draw is 11/5, over 2.5 goals is 11/10 and both teams to score is 8/11. 

Gelhardt and McBurnie are both 9/2 to open the scoring for the hosts, with Agyemang the most likely Derby goalscorer at 5/1. 

Double Chance and BTTS  - Derby or Draw and Yes @ 8/5

How much should we read into Hull’s drop off in terms of home results? Well, it depends how much you want to stake on underlying statistics and recent form. The Tigers have lost their last three home games in all competitions, conceding 10 goals in that time. 

The 4-0 FA Cup defeat was to be expected but conceding three goals to Bristol City and QPR in back-to-back home games is concerning, and they have been giving up a lot of chances all season. Meanwhile, Derby lost their last game away at Watford but they have picked up 27 points from 15 away games and look to be a strong outfit right now. 

Hull’s home form ranks as only the 11th-best by comparison, and I think there’s a good chance for the Rams to avoid defeat here. Meanwhile, Hull have been known for goals at both ends this term, with 61% of their Championship games this season ending in with both teams on the scoresheet. Let’s back that as well in this first selection. 

Price Boost - Both teams to score 2+ goals @ 6/1

Betfred have put forward a Price Boost for this game, and I’ll take advantage of it. Hull have scored 51 and conceded 46 in 33 games this season, and their last two home games have been exciting, ending in 3-1 and 3-2 defeats. 

Meanwhile, Derby are a dangerous away side and although they failed to score at Vicarage Road, they scored five at Bristol City prior to that and also two at Charlton recently. I think we should get goals at the MKM, and for that reason this Price Boost appeals.

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