Villarreal vs Ajax: Visitors can take advantage of hapless hosts

It's been a miserable league phase campaign for both Villarreal and Ajax in this season's Uefa Champions League. Ahead of the penultimate round of fixtures this week, the Spanish side sit second-bottom of the 36-team standings, two points and one place behind their Dutch counterparts (34th), who must win their final two games to stand any chance of sneaking into the top 24 and securing a play-off spot.

Below are my Villarreal vs Ajax predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of Tuesday's first-ever meeting between the two clubs, which takes place at the Estadio de la Ceramica (20:00 GMT, TNT Sports 6).

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Team News

Pape Gueye, whose extra-time strike won the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations for Senegal on Sunday, is suspended for Tuesday's game, so even if he returns in time, he won't be allowed to feature for Villarreal.

Willy Kambwala (hamstring), Pau Cabanes, Thiago Fernandez and Logan Costa (all knee) are still out injured for the hosts.

Football Odds

Wout Weghorst (ankle) and Steven Berghuis (groin) are still sidelined for Ajax, who are unable to hand a debut to former Arsenal defender Takehiro Tomiyasu, as he is ineligible.

Villarreal vs Ajax Odds

Villarreal are 4/9 to claim a first European victory of the season, implying a 69.2% probability of success, with Ajax offered at 11/2, or a 15.4% chance, and the draw priced at 4/1.

Villarreal striker Georges Mikautadze To Score The First Goal has been boosted from 7/2 to 4/1.

Double Chance - Draw or Ajax @ 13/8

It just doesn't make any sense to back Villarreal at current prices.

While I do think the Yellow Submarine are a better side with better players, as suggested by their current third-place standing in La Liga, the facts are that Marcelino's men have been abysmal in Europe this season, losing five and drawing one of their first five league phase games. A 3-2 defeat at home to Copenhagen last time out was particularly brutal, especially as it came a couple of weeks after a 4-0 hammering at Borussia Dortmund.

It would take a ridiculous set of results for Villarreal to finish in the top 24, and so I don't see much motivation for the players heading into Tuesday's clash against Ajax, particularly with a huge home game to come against Real Madrid at the Ceramica on Saturday. Los Blancos, who are currently second in La Liga, are seven points ahead of Villarreal, who have a game in hand on Alvaro Arbeloa's side.

Today's Football Fixtures

Ajax, meanwhile, have a slightly better chance of a top-24 finish, although after losing five of their first six games, winning once, they will need to claim maximum points from the two final rounds of fixtures and hope other results go their way.

After losing five consecutive matches in Europe, the Eredivisie outfit were bottom heading into gameweek six, but a 4-2 victory over Qarabag in Azerbaijan has breathed life into their campaign, and suddenly, there is a glimmer of hope.

Led by interim Fred Grim, Ajax have made an inauspicious start to 2026, scraping a 3-2 win at Telstar and drawing 2-2 at home to Go Ahead Eagles, both in the league, either side of a 6-0 KNVB Becker hammering at AZ Alkmaar.

It's tough to go all in on Ajax right now, but against a Villarreal side with their focus elsewhere, there's value in backing the visitors in the Double Chance market at 13/18.

Both Teams to Score 2 or More Goals Yes/No - Yes @ 3/1

Backing both teams to score two or more goals looks like another interesting play here.

The selection, offered at 3/1, implying a 25% probability of success, has landed in 33.3% (two) of Villarreal's European outings this season, the first a 2-2 home draw with Juventus on October 1, and the second that 3-2 Ceramica loss to Copenhagen on December 10, so it's actually been a winner in 66.7% (two) of the Yellow Submarine's three home matches.

In their other home contest, a 2-0 loss to Manchester City on October 21, Villarreal conceded twice.

Ajax have only seen the above selection come in once in Europe this season, but that was last time out as they won 4-2 at Qarabag, and five of their last seven games in all competitions, including four of their last five, have seen both sides score twice.

Football - 2 Up Early Payout

Pre-Match bets on the 2 Up Early Payout market in selected games. Paid as a winner within 5 minutes if your team goes 2 goals ahead. Selected leagues only. 90 mins only. T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Opt in and build your own Bet Builder (3/1+) of 3+ legs on any Champions League match on Tuesday or Wednesday and get 100% of your stake back in Free Bets up to £10 if you lose. (Credited within 24 hours)