Real Madrid vs Manchester City Prediction: Pep’s Boys to get the job done

I'm sure we get this fixture every year but once again - two of Europe's biggest teams meet early in the knockout stages of the Champions League with the Spanish giants hosting the first leg on Wednesday night. Kick-off is set for 20:00 with TNT Sports 1 being the Live TV broadcaster in the UK.

Our Spanish football expert has been given the assignment for this once and he likes Pep's lads to get the job done and win on the road in the Spanish capital. You can read why and all the latest Team News, Predicted Lineups and his two Best Bets for the match here on Betfred Insights as we explore Mark's Real Madrid vs Manchester City Predictions...

Real Madrid and Manchester City are set for their second meeting of the season and 12th Champions League clash of the decade on Wednesday night. 

These sides cannot seem to avoid one another in this competition, and the balance of power has continuously shifted back and forth between two of Europe's most dominant clubs. 

City's convincing 4-0 victory over Los Blancos in the second leg of the semi-final on their way to the 2023 trophy felt like a real changing-of-the-guard moment, as an ageing Madrid midfield was overrun. However, the Spanish giants responded by knocking City out in the quarter-finals the following season on their way to a 15th European crown. 

Neither side were at their best last term, but Real Madrid were much superior in a play-off tie against Pep Guardiola's under-performing team, winning 6-3 on aggregate. Fast-forward 12 months, and it's the Premier League outfit that looks much the stronger of the two heading into this latest meeting. 

City won 2-1 at the Santiago Bernabéu in the league phase, a result which went some way towards ending the reign of Xabi Alonso. The ex-Bayer Leverkusen boss was finally dismissed after a Supercopa defeat to Barcelona in January. 

Álvaro Arbeloa was the man entrusted with the hottest of hotseats, and he was jeered by Real Madrid supporters in just his second match after starting out with a 3-2 Copa del Rey defeat against second-tier Albacete. 

Los Blancos have lost three more times since then, with two of their last three league encounters ending in defeat. That has left Barcelona in charge of the title race in Spain, and that adds even more significance to this tie, after Arbeloa's side edged out Benfica 3-1 on aggregate in the play-off round. 

Injuries have made the 43-year-old's job all the more difficult, and he was dealing with a major selection crisis on Friday night in Vigo. Youngsters Thiago Pitarch, Manuel Ángel and César Palacios all featured in that game, as Real Madrid ground out a hard-fought 2-1 win, thanks to a late deflected strike from Fede Valverde. 

Manchester City were last in action on Saturday, seeing off Newcastle 3-1 in the FA Cup at St James' Park. Savinho and Omar Marmoush did the damage, as a rotated lineup delivered in an impressive show of the depth Guardiola currently has available to him. 

Erling Haaland was left out of the squad altogether, with the decision made to keep the Norwegian fresh for this match. While he still leads the Premier League top goalscorer race, the 25-year-old's form is a slight concern, with only four goals in his last 16 matches in all competitions. 

However, Haaland did score and assist in a crucial trip to Liverpool last month, while more of his teammates are chipping in with goals than was the case earlier in the campaign. 

Successful Champions League teams tend to perfect the art of coming into form around this point in the season. Real Madrid have been the masters of that in the past, but the omens look good for City this term. Since a shock defeat to Bodø/Glimt in January, they've gone 11 matches without losing in all competitions, winning nine of those games. 

Team News: 

Real Madrid are still missing three players who form the spine of their team, with Éder Militão, Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappé sidelined through injury. Rodrygo and Dani Ceballos will also miss out, while there are additional doubts over defenders David Alaba and Álvaro Carreras. 

Dean Huijsen and Eduardo Camavinga are both expected to return after missing the trip to Vigo. Gonzalo García may also be preferred to Brahim Díaz up front. 

Wholesale changes are expected from Manchester City, with few of the players that started in Newcastle set to keep their places in the Spanish capital. Haaland will return to lead the line, with Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki also likely to be recalled. 

There are fewer selection problems for Guardiola, although he'll have to cope without the injured duo of Mateo Kovačić and Joško Gvardiol. 

Match Odds: 

Man City are the 21/20 favourites to win the first leg, while you can back Real Madrid at 9/4. The Draw is on offer at 11/4. 

If you're expecting goals, Both teams to score is priced at 4/7, while you can back Over 3.5 goals at 6/4. Los Blancos are on offer at 11/8 to score over 1.5 goals across the 90 minutes, while you can back them to win either half at 21/20. 

For bigger potential returns, City can be backed with a -1 Handicap at odds of 13/5. They're given a 4/5 chance of scoring over 1.5 goals, while you can back the visitors to win to nil at 3/1. 

If you fancy Haaland to get back on the goal trail in this one, the visiting striker is priced at 3/1 to score first, and 4/5 to score anytime. Semenyo is given a 7/5 chance of scoring in what will be his first ever European match. 

With so many attacking absentees, Vinícius Júnior is the main danger man for Real Madrid. The Brazilian is on offer at 6/1 to grab the game's first goal, while he's priced at 9/5 to score anytime. 

*You can bet on the match and check out all of our Betting Markets on the Real Madrid vs Manchester City Odds page on betfred.com

Bet 1 - Man City to win @ 21/20 

Mbappé was also absent from the home lineup when Man City travelled to Madrid at the end of last year, and the visitors were much superior in that match. Guardiola's men had eight shots on target and created 2.61 xG in a 2-1 victory. 

Three months on, there is no reason to expect things to pan out any differently. Real Madrid have even more selection issues this time around, and they're not playing any better. Their last outing at home ended in a shock 1-0 defeat against local rivals Getafe, and they are lacking both creativity and a consistent goal threat. 

City have won seven of their last eight matches in all competitions, and they'll be fresh and ready to go after most of their stars were rested at the weekend. They look good to win this game at 21/20. 

Bet 2 - Antoine Semenyo 1+ shots on target & Rayan Cherki 1+ shots on target @ 21/20 

Cherki had two of those eight City shots on target at the Bernabéu earlier in the season, and he's likely to be one of the visiting team's most influential attacking players again. The 22-year-old is averaging a goal every 94 minutes in the Champions League this term. 

Semenyo has also made a really positive impact since completing a January move from Bournemouth. Nothing seems to faze the Ghanaian, who has registered five goals in eight Premier League appearances for his new club, averaging 2.3 shots per game. He has slotted seamlessly into the City set-up, and there's every reason to believe he'll also rise to the task on the Champions League stage. 

Against a Real Madrid defence that has looked vulnerable in the big matches this season, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Semenyo to have 1+ shots on target and Cherki to have 1+ shots on target at 21/20. 

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You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Football writers on our Football home page...