Qarabag vs Newcastle Prediction: Magpies to get caught out?

Newcastle United will hope to take a step towards the last 16 of the Uefa Champions League as they travel to Azerbaijan for the first leg of their knockout phase playoff tie on Wednesday (17:45 GMT, TNT Sports 1). 

Having struggled on the road so far in this competition, can the Magpies turn up on the shores of the Caspian Sea? Check out my Qarabag vs Newcastle predictions down below.

Team News

Kady Borges was sent off for Qarabag at the weekend but is available to feature in this one, although he is likely to start on the bench behind star forward Leandro Andrade. 

Along with Camilo Duran, Andrade will provide the home side’s biggest threat, as the duo have scored seven of Qarabag’s 13 Champions League goals so far this term. 

Newcastle boss Eddie Howe has a lot of injuries to contend with for this away trip, with Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton, Fabian Schar and Tino Livramento all definitely out. 

Yoane Wissa and Sven Botman are doubtful, while Anthony Gordon will look to contribute another European goal, adding to the six he’s already bagged in 2025/26. 

Football Odds

Qarabag vs Newcastle Odds

Qarabag are the 7/1 underdogs to win this first leg, while Newcastle have been priced as the 2/5 favourites, giving them an implied win probability of 71%. A draw is 4/1, while over 2.5 goals is 8/13. 

BTTS is 10/11, while there are also loads of Price Boosts for this tie that you can find on the link above. 

Both teams to score @ 10/11 

I think we should see a pretty open first-leg encounter in Baku, given what Qarabag have produced in this competition so far. The hosts may have lost 6-0 to Liverpool at Anfield in the group stage, but their home performances were incredibly impressive, and they scored at least two goals in each of their four group phase matches on home soil.

Newcastle have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last seven games in all competitions and their defence doesn’t seem to be their strong point right now. Given Chelsea drew 2-2 here in the league phase, and Eintracht Frankfurt were beaten 3-2, I think the price on both teams to score in this one is fantastic. 

Camilo Duran to score first @ 10/1

I know most punters will expect the Premier League side to turn up here and score a decent number of goals given their squad value on paper - but I see a very different match. The bookies also side with Newcastle dominance in this one looking at the goalscorers list, which gives us massive value on backing a Qarabag striker to find the net. 

Duran has been in fine form in this competition recently, scoring three goals in his last three fixtures, with those three goals also coming across the last two home games. He’s going to lead the line here and up against this dodgy Newcastle defence should have a couple of chances. He’s 7/2 to score anytime, which I like, but I’m going to plump for the hosts to make a rapid start and Duran to score first at a massive 10/1. 

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