Olympiakos vs Pafos Prediction: A booking bonanza in Piraeus

Olympiakos and Pafos begin their league phase campaigns in the Uefa Champions League on Wednesday (17:45 BST, TNT Sports 3), when they meet at the former's Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus.

Below are my Olympiakos vs Pafos predictions, alongside all the essential team news and match odds.

Team News

Remy Cabella, Gustavo Mancha, Stavros Pnevmonidis, Ruben Vezo and Yusuf Yazici are all ineligible to feature in the league phase for Olympiakos, with none of those five players named in their Champions League squad.

First-choice goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis is suspended after he was sent off in his side's last European outing, the 2-1 second-leg victory over Bodo/Glimt in the Uefa Europa League last 16 on March 13. Veteran shot-stopper Alexandros Paschalakis is expected to deputise between the sticks on Wednesday.

Portuguese winger Gelson Martins was substituted in the 18th minute of Saturday's 5-0 win over Panserraikos with an injury and looks likely to miss out in midweek alongside Ukrainian striker Roman Yaremchuk (muscle).

Gabriel Strefezza and Daniel Podence could both earn promotions to Jose Luis Mendilibar's starting XI, supporting the talismanic figure of Ayoub El Kaabi in attack. Iran international Mehdi Taremi, who bagged a debut brace off the bench on Saturday following his recent move from Inter Milan, is likely to replace El Kaabi late on again in Piraeus.

Football Odds

Alexandre Brito, Wilmer Odefalk, Pedrao and Athanasios-Theologos Papadoudis have all been left out of Pafos' Champions League squad, so none of the quartet can feature in the competition until the knockout stages.

Former Watford pair Ken Sema and Domingos Quina will be hopeful of making it onto the field against Olympiakos, although both may have to settle for a substitute role, as could former Chelsea defender David Luiz, who has only recently returned from an injury.

Today's Football Fixtures

Olympiakos vs Pafos Odds

Olympiakos have won all three games this season, scoring nine goals and keeping three clean sheets. Thrylos are 4/9 to maintain their 100% start on Wednesday, implying a 69.2% probability of success, while Pafos, who won all three of their Champions League away qualifiers, are 15/2, or an 11.8% chance, to claim all three points on their league phase debut.

The draw is priced at 18/5, both teams to score at 11/10, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/5.

El Kaabi (9/10), who has struck 23 European goals across the last three seasons for Olympiakos, heads the anytime goalscorer market.

Booking Points - 80+ @ 5/1

Over 47.5 booking points looks like a fairly safe bet at 5/6, while over 52.5 looks good at 11/8, but I'm going to go large to kick things off, and back 80+ booking points between Olympiakos and Pafos at 5/1.

I'm expecting sparks to fly on Wednesday, but not in the romantic sense, with both teams surely looking at this game with eyes on all three points, especially Olympiakos, who are playing at home.

This desperation to win could result in some tasty challenges, tactical fouls, dissent towards the referee, time-wasting - the full works.

All eight of Olympiakos' league phase matches in last season's Uefa Europa League produced 40+ booking points, with all but one seeing 50+. The most dished out in one game was 75 in the goalless draw with FCSB in Bucharest last November, when there were five yellows and one red awarded.

In the Greek side's last European contest, a 2-1 victory over Bodo/Glimt in the second leg of their Europa League round of 16 tie in Piraeus, six yellows and one red, totalling 85 booking points, were recorded.

Pafos were in the competition below, the Uefa Conference League, but their league phase games were similarly indisciplined, with three producing 60+ booking points, and one ending up with 90 after nine yellows were flashed.

Plus, five of their six qualifiers produced 45+ booking points, and four 60+. Two went particularly high, with 135 registered in their 4-0 second-leg victory over CSKA Sofia in Limassol, and 115 in their 1-0 first-leg defeat at CFR Cluj.

In the knockouts, three of their four games saw 40+ awarded, with the last, a 3-0 loss at Djurgarden, reaching a ton as a result of 10 yellows.

Pafos' Champions League qualifiers this year have been lively, too, with four of the six going 50+. The first, a 1-1 draw with Maccabi Tel Aviv in Limassol, saw the two teams rack up 80 booking points between them on account of eight yellows.

If you need any more convincing that this could be a booking bonanza, Pafos' first league game this season, a 1-0 win at APOEL, saw six yellows, and thus 60 booking points, awarded, and in their second and most recent match, a 1-0 defeat at home to Apollon last Saturday, there were 14 yellows and three reds, adding up to 185 booking points (the three dismissals were all for bookable offences).

Olympiakos avoided a card of either colour in their 5-0 thrashing of Panserraikos in the Greek Super League on Saturday, but their opponents received three yellows and one red, totalling 55 booking points.

So, do you need any more convincing?

Bet Builder - Player Shown Any Card - Ivan Sunjic (PAF), Derrick Luckassen (PAF), Joao Correia (PAF) & Daniel Podence (OLY) @ 66/1

I'm not seeing much value in single-player card selections, so I'm grouping four of the best and going big in a 50/1 Bet Builder.

I've picked out three players from Pafos, with Ivan Sunjic, Derrick Luckassen and Joao Correira all backed to go into the book on Wednesday.

Let's start with former Birmingham City midfielder Sunjic, who picked up nine, 10, eight and 11 cautions in his four seasons with the Blues before leaving for Cyprus at the beginning of the 2024/25 campaign. The 28-year-old hasn't changed for the better, receiving 11 yellows in his maiden season with Pafos, including three in last season's Conference League.

The Bosnian has already been booked twice in 2025/26, with one of his two cautions awarded in a Champions League qualifier against Dynamo Kyiv. Averaging two fouls per game in last season's Conference League and 1.6 per game in the Cyprus League (3.5 p/g after two played this term), Sunjic is an obvious candidate to be disciplined on Wednesday.

So too is Dutch defender Luckassen, who picked up 10 yellow cards in the Cyprus League last season, as well as four yellows and one red in as many domestic cup appearances.

The 30-year-old was also a prolific carder in Europe, as he received six yellows in 15 Conference League outings. He's begun the new season in a similar vein, picking up his first caution in his second game, the Champions League second-round qualifier against Maccabi in Backa Topola, and heads into the midweek meeting with Olympiakos after being sent off for two bookable offences against Apollon. Those three cards - two yellow and one red - made it four in two games after he was cautioned in the 1-0 win at APOEL on August 31.

Finally on the Pafos side of things, we come to Correia, who was booked 11 times last season, with three of his yellows awarded in the Conference League.

Already this season, the 29-year-old has been cautioned twice in Europe, in just six appearances.

For Olympiakos, I'm backing Podence to pick up a card. The Portuguese attacker was shown four yellows - in just eight appearances - in his last European campaign (2023/24), when Olympiakos made it to the Conference League final and lifted the trophy.

Podence was also shown seven yellows and one red in the Greek Super League that season, and in the 2024/25 Saudi Pro League, he received five yellows and one red in 19 outings.

Offers

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