Newcastle vs Qarabag Prediction: Magpies to see the job through

Newcastle United have one foot firmly in the last 16 of the Uefa Champions League after thrashing Qarabag 6-1 in the first leg of their play-off tie last week. Part two takes place on Tuesday at St. James' Park (20:00 GMT, Prime Video).

As the Magpies' Premier League campaign continues to deteriorate, more focus is being put into their European campaign. Read on for my Newcastle vs Qarabag predictions, featuring the latest match odds and team news.

Team News

Bruno Guimaraes, Tino Livramento, Lewis Miley (all thigh), Emil Krafth (knee) and Fabian Schar (ankle) are all absent for Newcastle due to injury. Eddie Howe will also be without Malick Thiaw who must serve a suspension for picking up his third UCL yellow card in the first leg.

With a five-goal cushion in the tie, Howe could hand game time to youngsters and rest key personnel for Saturday's league clash at home to Everton.

Football Odds

Qarabag's Bahlul Mustafazada was forced off in the first leg inside 22 minutes with an abductor problem and he now faces up to three months on the sidelines.

Dani Bolt, who replaced him, is set to feature from the beginning on Tuesday.

Today's Football Fixtures

Newcastle vs Qarabag Odds

After comfortably beating Qarabag last week, Newcastle are the heavy 1/7 favourites to do the same in their own backyard,

Should the Magpies rotate heavily, the draw could be an attractive option at 8/1. The visitors are 16/1 to triumph inside 90 minutes.

If you think that there will be another thrashing on the cards, over 4.5 goals is marketed at 7/4 - which has an implied probability of 36.4%.

Scorecast - Newcastle 3-0 & Anthony Gordon first goalscorer @ 22/1

With a 6-1 lead ahead of their home leg on Tyneside, Newcastle can afford to take things easy on Tuesday, but with Qarabag having nothing to lose, the Magpies may look to kill all hope by getting in front.

Most of the results markets are heavily favouring the hosts, so I have sought value with a scorecast - which is a first for me in my previews. I have gone for a 3-0 win for Newcastle because I think even with some rotation, there are still going to be many capable goalscorers out on the pitch, and some of them will be out to impress in a bid to gain more game time.

This scoreline has already landed in two of the Magpies' three home wins in the Champions League this term and it feels like a sensible scoreline to back on this occasion. The real value comes from Anthony Gordon opening the scoring, which he did in the third minute in the first leg.

The Newcastle attacker has been a man in form in Europe this season, scoring 10 goals in nine matches - only Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe has more than Gordon with 13. I do think 22/1 seems rather generous for this combination.

Total Goals - Under 3.5 @ 11/10

Newcastle have a great advantage in the tie, so I am not anticipating as much drama as there was last week. I believe there will be goals available, just a fraction of what we saw in Karabakh.

Under 3.5 goals therefore looks a promising selection at 11/10. This has been a winning selection in all four of Newcastle's home outings in the Champions League this campaign and I predict this trend will continue on Tuesday night as the hosts look to see the job through.

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