Marseille vs Newcastle Prediction: Aubameyang back to haunt Magpies

Over 21 years since they last met, in the semi-finals of the 2003/04 Uefa Cup (now Uefa Europa League), Olympique Marseille and Newcastle United renew acquaintances on Tuesday (20:00 GMT, TNT Sports 2) in the 2025/26 Uefa Champions League. The English outfit have made a bright start to their campaign, picking up nine points from a possible 12, but the French side have experienced an opposite set of results, losing three times and winning just once.

Below are my Marseille vs Newcastle predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this league phase game at the Stade Velodrome.

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Team News

Leonardo Balerdi, Bilal Nadir and Timothy Weah made their returns from injury in last Friday's 5-1 hammering of Ligue 1 rivals OGC Nice at the Allianz Riviera.

Nayef Aguerd (groin), Amine Gouri (shoulder), Facundo Medina (ankle), Michael Murillo (tendon) and Hamed Junior Traore (thigh) all missed out against Nice and look set to sit out Tuesday's match.

Neal Maupay was a late substitute last Friday, but the French striker, alongside a couple of Spaniards, defender Pol Lirola and goalkeeper Ruben Blanco, are ineligible to feature on Tuesday as they were left out of the club's Champions League squad.

Football Odds

Veteran goalkeepers John Ruddy and Mark Gillespie, alongside club captain Jamaal Lascelles, were left out of Newcastle's European squad, so the trio will have a watching brief on Tuesday, as will the club's four injured players, Kieran Trippier (hamstring), Yoane Wissa (knee), Harrison Ashby (thigh) and Will Osula (ankle).

Anthony Gordon (hip), who has missed the Magpies' last two games, including Saturday's 2-1 Premier League victory over Manchester City, could return to action in France, while Lewis Hall should be fine after he was forced off with cramp against Pep Guardiola's star-studded side.

Marseille vs Newcastle Odds

Marseille won their first European home game of the season against Ajax (4-0), but were beaten by Atalanta (0-1) last time out in the Champions League at the Velodrome. Roberto De Zerbi's side are considered underdogs for the three points on Tuesday, with odds of 9/5 handing an implied probability of 35.7%, while Newcastle, who thrashed Union Saint-Gilloise (0-4) in their only away game so far in this season's competition, are 7/5, or a 41.7% chance, to triumph on their travels.

The draw is priced at 23/10, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Anytime Goalscorer - Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (OLM) @ 2/1

I had to double-take when I saw the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Newcastle striker Nick Woltemade leads the way at 6/4, followed by the current top scorer in Ligue 1, Mason Greenwood (7/4). Then you have two players tied for third - Marseille's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Newcastle's Osula (both 2/1). One of them is a former Premier League Golden Boot winner who has struck five times in 11 Ligue 1 games this season and notched once in four Champions League outings. The other has 13 career goals, and just two in 24 Premier League appearances for the Magpies.

Admittedly, his only league effort this term came against reigning champions Liverpool, but there's no way I can justify Osula and Aubameyang being the same price.

Today's Football Fixtures

So, is Osula overvalued, or is Aubameyang undervalued? Or both?

Well, whichever way you chop it, I think 2/1 for Aubameyang, playing at home and having scored in back-to-back games for Marseille, to find the net anytime on Tuesday, is slightly generous. Greenwood is receiving most of the plaudits, but Aubameyang's six-goal return this term isn't to be sniffed at.

Newcastle have kept three consecutive clean sheets in the Champions League, but their last two games were at home, and the first match in that run was away to competition newbies Union Saint-Gilloise.

Marseille should provide a stiffer test at the Velodrome, and with Eddie Howe's side shipping eight goals across their last three away games, Aubameyang will be eyeing up the chance to put further gloss on his goalscoring record against the Magpies, which stands at six goals in nine appearances.

Bet Builder - Emerson (OLM), Dan Burn & Joelinton (both NEW) Shown Any Card @ 18/1

Here's a cheeky one.

I think the referee could be in for a busy night on Tuesday, with these two teams both possessing a few players who like to get stuck in, and equally a few who can tempt opponents into fouls.

On the home side, I like the look of a card for left-back Emerson Palmieri, formerly of Chelsea and West Ham United.

The Brazil-born, Italy international picked up 15 yellow cards across his final two seasons in the Premier League, including 10 in the 2023/24 campaign, before leaving for France earlier this year.

One of his yellows in 2023/24 actually came against Newcastle for remonstrating with the referee after a foul on Bruno Guimaraes, who is averaging 1.8 fouls won per game in this season's Champions League. Add Anthony Elanga, fouled three times in his last European start against Union Saint-Gilloise, into the equation, and Gordon, averaging two fouls won per game in the competition, and you can understand why I think Emerson will be under huge pressure on Tuesday.

The 31-year-old has already served a suspension in Europe this season after receiving a red card for two bookable offences in his side's 2-1 defeat at Sporting CP on October 22.

On to the Newcastle carders now, and we start with Dan Burn, who was banned for his side's victory over Man City last Saturday after being handed his marching orders for two yellows in a 3-1 defeat at Brentford on November 9.

The England international was booked 11 times in 37 Premier League appearances last season, and he's already received five yellows and one red in 11 league games this term.

Across four Champions League games in 2025/26, he's earned one yellow, averaging a foul per game. He could be deployed at left-back again on Tuesday, putting him up against Greenwood, who is averaging 1.8 fouls won per game in Europe this term.

Finally, we have Joelinton, someone I always back for a card. It was certainly successful on Saturday as he picked up his sixth yellow of the campaign in the win against City.

The Brazilian has received two cautions in three Champions League starts this season, averaging 1.8 fouls per game across his four appearances.