Marseille vs Ajax Prediction: Dutch giants left disappointed by French trip

Olympique Marseille and Ajax both made losing starts to their Uefa Champions League campaigns earlier this month, suffering 2-1 and 0-2 defeats to Real Madrid and Inter Milan, respectively. The Dutch giants are on their travels this week, as they provide the opposition at the Stade Velodrome on Tuesday (20:00 BST, TNT Sports 6).

Below are my Marseille vs Ajax predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this league phase fixture from France.

Team News

Geoffrey Kondogbia (calf) was substituted against Real Madrid on September 16 due to injury, and after missing Marseille's last two games, he remains sidelined.

Hamed Traore (thigh), meanwhile, hasn't featured since the 1-0 defeat to Lyon on August 31, and the AFC Bournemouth loanee is still out for Roberto De Zerbi's side.

Marseille came from behind in Ligue 1 last Friday to beat Strasbourg 2-1, with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who scored their equaliser 20 minutes after coming off the bench, putting himself in the frame for a start on Tuesday.

Mason Greenwood, Benjamin Pavard and Emerson Palmieri could also start after being deployed as second-half substitutes at the Stade de la Meinau.

Football Odds

As for Ajax, Branco van den Boomen (back), Kasper Dolberg (abdominal strain) and James McConnell are considered major doubts after all three missed Saturday's 2-1 victory over NAC Breda; Van den Boomen hasn't featured since March 13.

Wout Weghorst missed his side's 2-2 draw at PSV Eindhoven on September 21 with a back problem, but the Dutch striker returned as a late substitute on Saturday and could lead the line in France.

Today's Football Fixtures

Marseille vs Ajax Odds

Marseille have won all three home games this season, beating Paris FC (5-2), Lorient (4-0) and Paris Saint-Germain (1-0) in Ligue 1, and De Zerbi's side are 1/2 to make it four victories from four on Tuesday, implying a 66.7% probability of success. Meanwhile, Ajax, who have drawn all three Eredivisie away matches against Go Ahead Eagles (2-2), FC Volendam (1-1) and PSV (2-2), are 11/2, or a 15.4% chance, to get off the mark in style.

The draw is priced at 18/5, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 3.5 total goals at 11/8.

Betfred's Price Boosts for this contest include Aubameyang To Score The First Goal at 4/1 (was 10/3).

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Marseille & Yes @ 9/5

Marseille lost three of their first five games this season, but all three defeats came away from home, and the last of those, against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu, saw them take a 22nd-minute lead through Timothy Weah, with the Spanish giants only hitting back thanks to two successful penalties from Kylian Mbappe.

Six days after that loss in Madrid, the Olympiens beat the reigning Ligue 1 and Champions League winners PSG at the Velodrome, and followed that victory up with a 2-1 win in Strasbourg that has propelled them to third in the league table.

Against an Ajax outfit that are yet to triumph on their travels this term, and were beaten 2-0 at home by Inter in their first league phase fixture on September 17, Marseille look poised to claim all three points on Tuesday.

However, while I'm backing the hosts to win, I don't think it will be a walk in the park for them, with Ajax scoring in seven of their eight matches so far this season.

Marseille, meanwhile, have only kept two clean sheets in their seven games, and aren't famed for their defensive approach, so there should be chances for the visitors to get on the scoresheet in midweek.

Ultimately, though, Marseille should prove too strong for their Dutch counterparts.

Player to Receive a Card - Facundo Medina (OM) @ 23/10

Yes, Marseille defender Facundo Medina is the shortest-priced player to receive a card in Tuesday’s match, but for good reason.

The 26-year-old, on loan with an option to buy from Ligue 1 rivals RC Lens, has been a regular in French referee notebooks since he moved from Argentine side Talleres Cordoba in the summer of 2020.

Medina was shown 55 yellows and one red across his five league seasons with Lens, for whom he was issued six cards, five of which were yellow, in eight European appearances. He was cautioned three times in six Champions League outings, and once in his only Uefa Europa League match, before being handed a yellow and a straight red in a Uefa Conference League qualifier against Panathinaikos last season.

The Argentina international has already been disciplined in Europe this term, receiving a yellow for a foul on Real Madrid’s Brahim Diaz at the Bernabeu in gameweek one. His second offence of the match, just four minutes after upending Diaz, saw him concede a penalty, for an admittedly harsh handball.

Medina is yet to be booked for Marseille in Ligue 1, but in the first of his two competition appearances, he committed three fouls.

On Tuesday, he could come up against Ajax winger Oliver Edvardsen, who has generally played from the right-hand side this season.

The 26-year-old averaged 1.3 fouls won per game in last season’s Eredivisie, despite only starting 11 of his 25 appearances, and he’s been upended five times across two league starts this term. In Saturday’s 2-1 victory over NAC Breda, he only played the first 45 minutes, but won three free-kicks.

Edvardsen started and finished his side’s 2-0 home loss to Inter Milan on matchday one earlier this month, and was fouled a whopping five times in Amsterdam, with Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Marcus Thuram both booked for taking the Norwegian down.

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